Tornado Warning Experiment

[Mike Johnston]

Last year, there was an experiment for the wording of tornado warnings that involved several midwestern states. IIRC, it involved 3 tiers of warning severity, a statement of how the tornado was detected and several varieties of "canned" wording on damage impacts, etc. Does anyone know if this experiment is being continued in 2013, been expanded, cancelled, or put into general operational use?

 

[Bob Hartig]

I've heard that, in the spirit of their new winter storm names, TWC is developing a list of tornado names beginning with Tornado Abbie, then Tornado Bert, then Tornado Chelsea, and so on. Depending on how well the list goes over, they're also contemplating naming mesocyclones, rotating wall clouds, arcus clouds, and further down the road, scud.

But I don't know a thing about the tor warning experiment.

(Sorry, Mike, no offense intended--I just couldn't resist a chance to dig at TWC. )

 

[Mike Johnston]

To be more exact, it was called the Impact Based Warnings experiment last year. Saw alot of releases put out about it, but not much in follow-up or evaluation of how it performed.

 

[Karen St John]

I followed the barcode here http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/crh/briefings/pdfs/2012ImpactBasedExperimentalProductCRH3.pdf

To this survey:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=IBW

This seems to indicate they are taking surveys until 2015?

 

[Jason Haller]

I've heard that, in the spirit of their new winter storm names, TWC is developing a list of tornado names beginning with Tornado Abbie, then Tornado Bert, then Tornado Chelsea, and so on. Depending on how well the list goes over, they're also contemplating naming mesocyclones, rotating wall clouds, arcus clouds, and further down the road, scud.

But I don't know a thing about the tor warning experiment.

(Sorry, Mike, no offense intended--I just couldn't resist a chance to dig at TWC. )

I would not put it past TWC putting names on Outbreaks.

 

[Shawn Schuman]

I would not put it past TWC putting names on Outbreaks.

Be careful about giving them ideas.

Apparently there was an AMS presentation on this topic recently, though there aren't any PDFs or recordings available so far as I can tell.

https://ams.confex.com/ams/93Annual/webprogram/Paper222556.html

I've been wondering about their assessment of how IBWs have gone over as well.

 

[rdale]

It is being expanded to all of Central Region. One minor terminology change but the bulk of it is the same.

 

[Mike Johnston]

It is being expanded to all of Central Region. One minor terminology change but the bulk of it is the same.

OK, thanks. We'll see how it goes. I thought there was to be some follow-up study by University of North Carolina after last year's experiment, but can't find it.

I wasn't particularly impressed by the experimental warning statements last year, but that's just IMO. Nothing particularly harmful, but couldn't see any particular value added, either.

 

[Mike Smith]

It is being expanded to all of Central Region.

Unfortunately, that is correct. They are going region-wide regardless of their merit.

ICT issued two "tornado emergency" warnings and both busted (there was zero damage in Conway Springs, Wichita experienced F-1 damage after the TE was issued).

We do not have the scientific skill to do this. Compounding the problem is the ridiculous length of recent tornado warning messages. Example: The 5:48 pm tornado warning issued while the storm was in Joplin was 279 words, not counting things like lat/lons, etc. The DDC TE for Greensburg was 79 words. Which was more effective? I think we know the answer.

The NWS's "learned" many incorrect lessons from Joplin. These new warnings are one of them.

 

[Jake Orosi]

Surely it will take more than one season to give this system a useful and scientific evaluation. It would be a shame to can the whole thing when all it requires is a language tweak for instance (I'm not saying that's all this system needs; the objective of the trial is to determine that).

 

[Mike Johnston]

Yeah, I never actually counted the number of words, but there definitely seemed to be some added length. I thought all of the "canned" language was superflous. Each tornado is different and I'm not sure can be described by a set of pre-selected statements. Concise, to-the-point "analog" prose seems both sufficient and efficient.

 

[Karen St John]

I firmly believe that the time to get people to take warnings seriously is in school and in PSAs. Taking them seriously involves knowing about the potential dangers of severe weather. Warning texts should trigger that teaching, when the occasion arises.

John and Jane Q. Public may also want to adjust their attitudes, too, if they harbour a lackadaisical attitude about weather. It won't kill anyone to adjust their behaviour when severe weather looms. My mom thanked God for adequate warning and shelter when the EF2 that came through Williamston, MI "merely" denuded the house. Was it a tornado emergency? If you were one of the two people killed that night, it was. Even sans the text in the official warning.

 

[rdale]

Well, it wasn't really a "tornado emergency" for those two. A different lesson was learned...

 

[Shawn Schuman]

I firmly believe that the time to get people to take warnings seriously is in school and in PSAs. Taking them seriously involves knowing about the potential dangers of severe weather. Warning texts should trigger that teaching, when the occasion arises.

Absolutely agree. One of the best ways to effect change in behavior is to educate, especially for young people. I don't necessarily think the "enhanced" warnings are a terrible idea (though I'm not sure they aren't, either) but I think it's pointless without education. How many people still don't even know the difference between a watch and a warning? And now they're expected to also understand the various "levels" of warnings? If there is a large, violent tornado confirmed on the ground (as was often the case on 4/27/11, for instance) I don't think it's a bad idea to use some sort of enhanced wording. If nothing else it ought to get the attention of broadcast media. But most people don't read warning text, and I have a feeling that the wording wouldn't make much difference even if they did. Not without education initiatives to go along with it, at least.

 

[rdale]

loco - while your point are valid, remember that the audience for these products does not contain the public... It's intended for emergency managers, and weathercasters. Meteorologists and the public are outside the range of this experiment.