Tarmo Tanilsoo
EF5
I would have not posted this thread, but this time I am not staring a sounding with extreme case of SDS. Estonian weather forum has received a report from Türi, where a thunderstorm occurred this afternoon.
This report was the least I expected today. I had been keeping my eye on Wednesday for a while, but I did not expect thunderstorms to hit anywhere in Estonia already today. In fact, I looked morning's sounding and ruled out thunder threat. ESTOFEX's web site shows numerous lightning strikes in Sweden and Finland and those were missed by them as well.
As mentioned earlier, I have been keeping my eye on Wednesday. GFS is forecasting convective activity increasing tomorrow. It peaks on Wednesday at 18Z. I read out from GFS meteorogram, that tomorrow, CAPE in Laguja could be 20 J/kg and LI 4,3°C. However, this has not drawn my attention. What has drawn my attention is model forecast of 274 J/kg CAPE and -1,3°C LI on Wednesday at 18Z.
EMHI is now also forecasting thunderstorms for Wednesday
This report was the least I expected today. I had been keeping my eye on Wednesday for a while, but I did not expect thunderstorms to hit anywhere in Estonia already today. In fact, I looked morning's sounding and ruled out thunder threat. ESTOFEX's web site shows numerous lightning strikes in Sweden and Finland and those were missed by them as well.
As mentioned earlier, I have been keeping my eye on Wednesday. GFS is forecasting convective activity increasing tomorrow. It peaks on Wednesday at 18Z. I read out from GFS meteorogram, that tomorrow, CAPE in Laguja could be 20 J/kg and LI 4,3°C. However, this has not drawn my attention. What has drawn my attention is model forecast of 274 J/kg CAPE and -1,3°C LI on Wednesday at 18Z.
EMHI is now also forecasting thunderstorms for Wednesday
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