The meteorology of tornado forecasting

I have definitely followed moisture from the gulf of mexico, especially 48 hours to 6 hours before a chase, but never thought of following it for upwards of a week. The gulf coast soundings are something I always look at, especially the night before a chase and compare with the NAM to see if the moisture it shows is even possible or likely.

As far as checking out surface temps and soundings at ABQ or DNR or even further west, I had never thought of doing that. Obviously steep lapse rates is what we want, but if ABQ is having record heat (like yesterday) it might not bode well for capping issues further east. Makes total sense, is completely simplistic, and seems to be something I have never even thought about.

By the way, the direct link to last nights stream archive is at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWg5T32jWJU

ps I missed the first 2 slides, sorry about that. My dinner was delivered right at the beginning of the talk and I was distracted.
 
Yeah, airplane wifi used to be OK to stream video. I watched the Michigan vs Ohio State game in 2011 on wifi, but now it's terrible since more people are using it. Archive should work. Hope you had a good time in Florida!
 
I felt like I was getting a bit of a mixed message in regards to drought/evapotranspiration, but the general message seemed to be that it's more about the airmass in place than about the soil and vegetation in his opinion?
 
chrisbray said:
I felt like I was getting a bit of a mixed message in regards to drought/evapotranspiration, but the general message seemed to be that it's more about the airmass in place than about the soil and vegetation in his opinion?
Click to expand...

Chris,

Moist soil and green vegetation tend to both slow surface heating, which reduces mixing during the afternoon. When it's dry and the vegetation is largely dormant, the ground heats quickly and mixing tends to be deeper. I think the presence of moist soil and green vegetation helps more to reduce mixing than it does by adding moisture to the near-surface layer, for any particular day.

Evapotranspiration can be an important moisture source over the period of several days to a couple of weeks, especially if you can maintain a strong cap and allow moisture to gradually accumulate beneath the cap. However, the corn crop often gets too much credit as the source of the high dewpoints, when you can almost always trace the moist air mass back many days to a different location. Does that make sense?

Rich T.
 
An update on the audio situation - We've determined the input into my camera is the reason why we're getting audio only in the left channel. I'm going to see what I can do about getting another camera before the next session and hopefully we can get audio in both channels. Hopefully the other issues were cleared up on session 2.
 
Rich Thompson said:
Chris,

Moist soil and green vegetation tend to both slow surface heating, which reduces mixing during the afternoon. When it's dry and the vegetation is largely dormant, the ground heats quickly and mixing tends to be deeper. I think the presence of moist soil and green vegetation helps more to reduce mixing than it does by adding moisture to the near-surface layer, for any particular day.

Evapotranspiration can be an important moisture source over the period of several days to a couple of weeks, especially if you can maintain a strong cap and allow moisture to gradually accumulate beneath the cap. However, the corn crop often gets too much credit as the source of the high dewpoints, when you can almost always trace the moist air mass back many days to a different location. Does that make sense?

Rich T.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the clarification, it does make sense!
 
Just a reminder that we do NOT have a talk this week as I believe Rich is on midnights or some other schedule not conducive to doing a class. It will be back next week at the same time.
 
Life has been super-busy lately, so I only just finished watching session number three. Again, a lot of information flying at me very fast, but I have the luxury of playing back segments of the video several times in order to absorb it. This is so good! The archive for this series will be a priceless educational tool for chasers. I wish something like it had existed long ago.

Rich Thompson said:
Moist soil and green vegetation tend to both slow surface heating, which reduces mixing during the afternoon. When it's dry and the vegetation is largely dormant, the ground heats quickly and mixing tends to be deeper. I think the presence of moist soil and green vegetation helps more to reduce mixing than it does by adding moisture to the near-surface layer, for any particular day.
Click to expand...

That's a really interesting perspective, Rich. I'd never have thought of that, but it makes complete sense.
 
Bob (and everyone else) don't forget there's another session this week, Tuesday at 730 pm CST. Same location for streaming. I'll update the page tomorrow to have the new video embedded.
 
Hey Ben! Could you check your copy of class #4 if you still have it? The uploaded copy on YT has some major audio problems unfortunately. The first few minutes of the first half is missing... then after the break, the audio is VERY choppy then not present. Hoping you have a good copy to re-upload as this session was especially beneficial to me... would love to be able to hear the entire presentation.

Thanks for your work!
 
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