The hot winter of 2007

[Tim Vasquez]

I've noticed lately it's been feeling very NON-Novemberlike. I decided to plot up the temperatures at nearby Dallas-Fort Worth Intergalactic Airport and see what's been going on.

Yep, we are above normal. How are we looking for the rest of the cool season?

Yuck. Another warm winter. OK, one season alone doth not global warming make, but I figured I'd check out how we've been faring overall. I took the published monthly temps at DFW and color coded them according to the 1971-2000 mean.

Wow... look at all that red. Either temperatures are indeed going up or the 1971-2000 mean isn't very representative... although I found elsewhere there is a 64-year mean published for Fort Worth and it's only about 0.2 degrees higher.

It should be said if we're going to have a whole winter of heating and drying out the desert Southwest, and a reduction in the overall snowpack, that potentially spells lots of capping problems for next spring. I foresee a Colorado or Nebraska season for 2008, though of course that doesn't factor in random luck around the Plains.

Tim

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

As I recall, November and December were very warm here last year, and we spent January through March in subzero temperatures, 20 or 30 below average.

Speculation is always fun, but isn't it somewhat early to predict where the best chase states will be due to this winter when haven't even begun meteorological winter?

 

[Shane Adams]

Yep, I too have been noting the similarities between now and two years ago. In 2005, we ended our chase season on October 19...and then it was well into 2006 before I saw precip again. The last time I saw precip this year was October 18, the day after our last chase, because I traveled south for work and drove back through much of the system that lingered the next day into N Texas. The days in DFW have been dry, warm and almost hot at peak heating (better sun angle this time of year). One thing I can report is a ton of sundogs, pretty much daily the past 3-4 days.

I don't know much about science, but I can say that if things keep going the way they are, I see another 2006 season coming our way. And that means chase early and often.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Speculation is always fun, but isn't it somewhat early to predict where the best chase states will be due to this winter when haven't even begun meteorological winter?

I'm in my late 30s... give me another 10 or 20 years and I'll be telling you about my wooly worms and damp cellar stairs.

Tim

 

[Laura Duchesne]

It's definately warmer. I raked the leaves that fell to the curb on Saturday... the other half is still green and on the trees. In fact a lot of trees in our area still have leaves. Usually they have all fallen by now. It looks like the season weather is running a month behind schedule. Heck, I even saw one dandelion on the grass! Bugs are still fying around too....

Hopefully this doesn't affect the 08 chase season in a bad way! (as in hot and dry)

 

[David Drummond]

Of course we just had one of the mildest and wettest summers in Texas for a long time. How does that figure in to all of it? Up here on the South Plains, I don't recall the exact amount off hand, but we have a big surplus on the yearly rainfall.

 

[Charles Kuster]

I know Leadville (close to the source of the Arkansas River) has been very warm and dry. They have only gotten .2" of snow so far in November and only .5" since October 22. People have told me there is no snow on the ground which is rare for November. A small amount of snow might have fallen today, but there is no precip in the forecast until November 19th. At the same time temps have also been quite warm. On a few occasions it was warmer in Leadville than it was in Lincoln! On the other hand, here in Lincoln we had a rather wet fall, (mid September-mid October) but it has not rained in a couple weeks.