Strongest NWS Wording I've Ever Seen

[Chris Geelhart]

The performance of the NWS/NHC and all components of the warning system was a triumph. It's hard to think about it like that with the images we're seeing, but imagine if they had been more conservative in their language.

Kind of ironic that there's been no communications for 24 hours from the NWS office that made that statement. With the messages elsewhere on the board about Slidell, you have to wonder how they fared. Saw some E-mail from the regional HQ that all of the NWS staff, and some of their families, were taking shelter at the office.

Chris G.

 

[Alex Lamers]

Let's evaluate how good this Urgent Weather Message actually was...

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

Well it certainly did rival the intensity and from interviews with locals in LA/MS they said this one was MUCH WORSE. Good job on that part.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

From what they are saying it could be LONGER than a couple of weeks in certain areas, exactly like the NWS Slidell predicted. In the core of strongest winds and through much of the area really, homes did have either roof or wall failure based on the images we are getting. Still looks like an excellent job to me.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

Well this is chilling. Those 50-some odd deaths in Mississippi were in a LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDING. I think its also safe to say that most industrial buildings have become non-functional.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

Have you seen the downtown Hyatt in New Orleans. One side of windows completely gone. Enough said...

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

From private video aired on the various news channels it certainly seems like there was a lot of debris in the air. In fact, I've heard that one road was impassible due to HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

I think its safe to say that the power outages will be for weeks as local officials have been saying that as well. The water and food shortages could become dangerous as all the roads into the city are flooded and people are still trapped on their homes. It also is not exactly cool down there and without water, we could see some heat stroke, etc.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.

From what I've seen a lot of trees were uprooted, even out of the eyewall winds to the east of the eye. New Orleans had some instances of this although, sadly, you can't see them any more because of the rising water. This description seems to fit best in S MS.

So overall a job well done by the NWS Slidell. It is a shame more people did not take this seriously. You cannot say that they didn't give warning.

Also a side effect that was talked about I saw a brief description in a CNN story albeit it was buried in the text. Fire ant "balls" and snakes beginning to be spotted in NOLA.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Anonymous]

Let's evaluate how good this Urgent Weather Message actually was...

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

Well it certainly did rival the intensity and from interviews with locals in LA/MS they said this one was MUCH WORSE. Good job on that part.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

From what they are saying it could be LONGER than a couple of weeks in certain areas, exactly like the NWS Slidell predicted. In the core of strongest winds and through much of the area really, homes did have either roof or wall failure based on the images we are getting. Still looks like an excellent job to me.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

Well this is chilling. Those 50-some odd deaths in Mississippi were in a LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDING. I think its also safe to say that most industrial buildings have become non-functional.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

Have you seen the downtown Hyatt in New Orleans. One side of windows completely gone. Enough said...

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

From private video aired on the various news channels it certainly seems like there was a lot of debris in the air. In fact, I've heard that one road was impassible due to HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

I think its safe to say that the power outages will be for weeks as local officials have been saying that as well. The water and food shortages could become dangerous as all the roads into the city are flooded and people are still trapped on their homes. It also is not exactly cool down there and without water, we could see some heat stroke, etc.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.

From what I've seen a lot of trees were uprooted, even out of the eyewall winds to the east of the eye. New Orleans had some instances of this although, sadly, you can't see them any more because of the rising water. This description seems to fit best in S MS.

So overall a job well done by the NWS Slidell. It is a shame more people did not take this seriously. You cannot say that they didn't give warning.

Also a side effect that was talked about I saw a brief description in a CNN story albeit it was buried in the text. Fire ant "balls" and snakes beginning to be spotted in NOLA.

...Alex Lamers...

Couldn't agree more. It was a little upsetting to see a couple members criticze that message only 6-12 hours after the event when a huge fog of uncertainity still existed. If the strong and correct wording of that message saved one life it was worth it.

 

[cdcollura]

Jeff Gammons and myself read this text on Suday, 8-28 while en-route to Mississippi from Florida. I cannot describe the feelings we got.

We both are hurricane chasers, and took it seriously. Unfortunately, many would have taken it as an exaggeration or even a joke. Nothing was funny about this!

And unfortunately, MOST if not ALL of the stuff on this NWS wording actually came true, and Katrina actually WEAKENED a bit at landfall. Think about that.

Another thing I saw was the astounding report of a 234 knots peak wind at 866 MB from a dropwindsonde released into the eyewall of the storm on the 28th. 866 MB is the altitude (MSL) where the wind was measured, with sea level at about 902 MB (remember, it's not 1016 MB normal sea level because of the low pressure).

902 MB minus 866 MB is 36 MB, and there is 1,000 feet elevation every 33 MB or so, so that wind was about 1,100 feet above the sea surface. The 75% reduction rule is for 10,000 feet winds. This means it's quite possible that such winds were very close to the ground.

By the way, 234 Knots is 269 MPH (1.15 to convert knots to MPH). Compared to a tornado, and F5 is 260 MPH. This means had the hurricane not weakened slightly, you would have F5 tornado-like damage, probably over a path 40 miles wide.

Nothing joked or exaggerated here, indeed.

Think about it.