Strongest NWS Wording I've Ever Seen

[Tim Vasquez]

Not to stoke another log on the fire, but this is a relevant item from the World Health Organization.
http://www.who.int/hac/techguidance/ems/flood_cds/en/

'Flooding is associated with an increased risk of infection, however this risk is low unless there is significant population displacement and/or water sources are compromised."

Looks like both of these are in issue.... so looking down the road we may be looking at localized outbreaks of communicable diseases due to water outages and disrupted/polluted groundwater. I have a feeling we're going to be hearing bits from the CDC later this week, assuming the storm maintains its track

Tim

 

[Anonymous]

Anyone care to speculate whether Katrina could permanently transform Louisiana's geography? To what degree?

I'm not from there, but I understand that most or all of its coastal areas are very low-elevation swamplands that would seem to be all-too-easily shattered by a storm of this magnitude.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Anonymous
Anyone care to speculate whether Katrina could permanently transform Louisiana's geography? To what degree?

Back when I took a geology class a couple of years ago, the professor said that a major flood or hurricane could re-route the Mississippi River from southeastern LA to southwestern LA. The Corps of Engineers has been forcing the river to continue southeastward (the Delta), MUCH more than would otherwise happen. Since rivers tend to want to take the path a least resistance, a massive flood or hurricane COULD be enough to provide the river with an opportunity to act on the least resistance, which is a new path through southwestern Louisiana, which could cause huge floods across a lot of southwestern LA.

 

[Andrew Khan]

Wow, that is very very intense wording. Are they just talking about the LA Area, or what area then? Could New Orleans become completely submerged in water due to their low elevation? How could it change their geography?

 

[Greg Campbell]

Originally posted by Anonymous
Anyone care to speculate whether Katrina could permanently transform Louisiana's geography? To what degree?

I'm not from there, but I understand that most or all of its coastal areas are very low-elevation swamplands that would seem to be all-too-easily shattered by a storm of this magnitude.

Without knowing any technical details, I don't want to get too excited. From an uninformed viewpoint, it seems that torrential rains may raise the Mississippi river and severely test the Atchafalaya control system.

If (a BIG 'if') that washes out, the Mississippi will literaly change course.
http://users.stlcc.edu/jangert/oldriver/oldriver.html

I'm searching for some hard numbers regarding the system's capacity.
Does anyone want to guest how much rain the S. Mississippi River valley will recieve?

-Greg

 

[Guest]

Originally posted by Tim Vasquez


I have a feeling we're going to be hearing bits from the CDC later this week, assuming the storm maintains its track

Tim

Hey Tim, I work for CDC. I haven't got 'Official' notification yet. But be assured we're on it. We technically have to be requested from the state for involvement, but we totally expect it. Note the front page of our site: www.cdc.gov

Best,
Dale

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

I would guess that the river it self could handle more rain then what we will see (w/o changeing course, obviously it will flood with the rain we will see) I believe the threat of the river running wild and changing course if it happens will be due to the surge that forces water up stream and causes rain water to find an alternate route aswell as the possibilty of new large channels being cut when the winds switch to off shore and the water quickly retreats back to sea.

 

[Greg Campbell]

The danger is that the extreme flow over the top of one of the control stuctures will create enough turbulence to wash out the foundation. A flooded Miss. will be ~25 feet highter than the overflow channel. If a section of one of the structures goes, the huge flow volume and velocity would quickly carve up the rest of the structure and dig a deep channel through the area. Once that happens, I don't see how it will be possible to repair the dam and force the river back to its current path.

-Greg

 

[Anonymous]

According to AirNav, the New Orleans WFO is located ~5 north of Lake Pontchartrain at an elevation of 28 ft. The radar that was knocked out at the NHC during hurricane Andrew was a WSR-57 (considerably smaller dome). I remember seeing pictures of a North Texas 88D that got hit by high winds a few years ago. It looked like a half deflated soccer ball, not sure how strong the winds were with that storm.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

According to AirNav, the New Orleans WFO is located ~5 north of Lake Pontchartrain at an elevation of 28 ft. The radar that was knocked out at the NHC during hurricane Andrew was a WSR-57 (considerably smaller dome). I remember seeing pictures of a North Texas 88D that got hit by high winds a few years ago. It looked like a half deflated soccer ball, not sure how strong the winds were with that storm.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/coolimg/rmuncher.htm

That was a WSR-88d from Del Rio, TX... Check out the pics in the link above.

 

[Anonymous]

believe it or not, a lot of people are taking that NWS statement as a hoax

 

[Mike]

Re-reading this warning is very very chilling. Hype? No! The reality is unfolding with more and more images of ground zero.

BRAVO to the Nat'l weather service. You saved a-lot of lives with this very bold warning.

 

[Anonymous]

I know the posting of direct NWS products is prohibited, but given the unprecidented language used in this statement, I feel it is something everyone should read.

NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!


The reality of a metropolitan Category 5...

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

No blood on the hands of the NWS/NHC/ etc.

Aaron

 

[Amos Magliocco]

The performance of the NWS/NHC and all components of the warning system was a triumph. It's hard to think about it like that with the images we're seeing, but imagine if they had been more conservative in their language.

With all the people who stayed despite the extreme text, Max Mayfield's apocolyptic press conferences, and the desperate pleas of local leaders, you have to imagine that many more thousands would have remained if they sensed even the slightest hesitation or hedging from forecasters or officials. Then we would have all those people stuck in their attics, or waving from their roofs, or floating in the lake.

I think all NOAA personnel can take somber satisfaction from a mission accomplished. It's out of their hands now.