Strongest NWS Wording I've Ever Seen

I know the posting of direct NWS products is prohibited, but given the unprecidented language used in this statement, I feel it is something everyone should read.

NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES.
SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.


THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!


The reality of a metropolitan Category 5...
 
Good grief, that is unbelievable! Easily the strongest wording I have ever seen as well. I doubt we will see wording like for quite some time.
 
Does anyone konw the elevation of the Slidell/New Orleans NWSFO? I wonder if they are going to have to evac the office and hand off responsibilities to their backup. Speaking of which, what office is the backup for LIS?
 
I didn't think anyone had the stones to issue an advisory like this, ever. I must agree, the strongest wording I've ever seen in my entire life in a NWS statement.

EDIT: Oh, can we have the direct link to it on the New Orleans NWS page? Can't seem to find it.
 
Yeah, we can make an exception to the "full bulletin" policy as that's certainly a noteworthy warning. I, too, have not seen the NWS issue anything like that.

Tim
 
The wild thing as I graduated at OU in 1999 with the guy who wrote that bulletin. He undoubtedly cleared it with the meteorologist in charge. Certainly looks likely wherever Katrina comes ashore.
 
strong warnings

this message was just now repeated on fox news. i have been following their coverage all morning and the wording of this warning gave me the chills. no doubt, the nws finds that this storm is all it is cracked up to be or they would not have posted a message of this magnitude!
 
Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
Does anyone konw the elevation of the Slidell/New Orleans NWSFO? I wonder if they are going to have to evac the office and hand off responsibilities to their backup. Speaking of which, what office is the backup for LIS?

Don't know the stats of the WFO elevation (also note the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center is co-located with the WFO). I did look up in the NWS directives and saw LIX's two backup offices are Mobile and Lake Charles. I would presume the Southern Region HQ has made some additional plans since both MOB and LCH are in hurricane mode as well.

EDIT: Elevation at the WSR-88D is 24 feet. Not sure if the WFO elevation matches.

Chris G.
 
That is the most incredibly chilling statement I have ever seen. I think it really brings it home that this isn't an ordinary system that we're dealing with. If people choose to ignore the option to evacuate with that being said, then society is better off without those members. Those who don't have the means to leave, I'm hoping the city administration is able to get them in to shelter.

Angie
 
Not to stoke another log on the fire, but this is a relevant item from the World Health Organization.
http://www.who.int/hac/techguidance/ems/flood_cds/en/

'Flooding is associated with an increased risk of infection, however this risk is low unless there is significant population displacement and/or water sources are compromised."

Looks like both of these are in issue.... so looking down the road we may be looking at localized outbreaks of communicable diseases due to water outages and disrupted/polluted groundwater. I have a feeling we're going to be hearing bits from the CDC later this week, assuming the storm maintains its track

Tim
 
Anyone care to speculate whether Katrina could permanently transform Louisiana's geography? To what degree?

I'm not from there, but I understand that most or all of its coastal areas are very low-elevation swamplands that would seem to be all-too-easily shattered by a storm of this magnitude.
 
Originally posted by Anonymous
Anyone care to speculate whether Katrina could permanently transform Louisiana's geography? To what degree?

Back when I took a geology class a couple of years ago, the professor said that a major flood or hurricane could re-route the Mississippi River from southeastern LA to southwestern LA. The Corps of Engineers has been forcing the river to continue southeastward (the Delta), MUCH more than would otherwise happen. Since rivers tend to want to take the path a least resistance, a massive flood or hurricane COULD be enough to provide the river with an opportunity to act on the least resistance, which is a new path through southwestern Louisiana, which could cause huge floods across a lot of southwestern LA.
 
Wow, that is very very intense wording. Are they just talking about the LA Area, or what area then? Could New Orleans become completely submerged in water due to their low elevation? How could it change their geography?
 
Originally posted by Anonymous
Anyone care to speculate whether Katrina could permanently transform Louisiana's geography? To what degree?

I'm not from there, but I understand that most or all of its coastal areas are very low-elevation swamplands that would seem to be all-too-easily shattered by a storm of this magnitude.

Without knowing any technical details, I don't want to get too excited. From an uninformed viewpoint, it seems that torrential rains may raise the Mississippi river and severely test the Atchafalaya control system.

If (a BIG 'if') that washes out, the Mississippi will literaly change course.
http://users.stlcc.edu/jangert/oldriver/oldriver.html

I'm searching for some hard numbers regarding the system's capacity.
Does anyone want to guest how much rain the S. Mississippi River valley will recieve?

-Greg
 
Originally posted by Tim Vasquez


I have a feeling we're going to be hearing bits from the CDC later this week, assuming the storm maintains its track

Tim

Hey Tim, I work for CDC. I haven't got 'Official' notification yet. But be assured we're on it. We technically have to be requested from the state for involvement, but we totally expect it. Note the front page of our site: www.cdc.gov

Best,
Dale
 
I would guess that the river it self could handle more rain then what we will see (w/o changeing course, obviously it will flood with the rain we will see) I believe the threat of the river running wild and changing course if it happens will be due to the surge that forces water up stream and causes rain water to find an alternate route aswell as the possibilty of new large channels being cut when the winds switch to off shore and the water quickly retreats back to sea.
 
The danger is that the extreme flow over the top of one of the control stuctures will create enough turbulence to wash out the foundation. A flooded Miss. will be ~25 feet highter than the overflow channel. If a section of one of the structures goes, the huge flow volume and velocity would quickly carve up the rest of the structure and dig a deep channel through the area. Once that happens, I don't see how it will be possible to repair the dam and force the river back to its current path.

-Greg
 
According to AirNav, the New Orleans WFO is located ~5 north of Lake Pontchartrain at an elevation of 28 ft. The radar that was knocked out at the NHC during hurricane Andrew was a WSR-57 (considerably smaller dome). I remember seeing pictures of a North Texas 88D that got hit by high winds a few years ago. It looked like a half deflated soccer ball, not sure how strong the winds were with that storm.
 
According to AirNav, the New Orleans WFO is located ~5 north of Lake Pontchartrain at an elevation of 28 ft. The radar that was knocked out at the NHC during hurricane Andrew was a WSR-57 (considerably smaller dome). I remember seeing pictures of a North Texas 88D that got hit by high winds a few years ago. It looked like a half deflated soccer ball, not sure how strong the winds were with that storm.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/coolimg/rmuncher.htm

That was a WSR-88d from Del Rio, TX... Check out the pics in the link above.
 
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