Strong Wording by WFO OUN

[Jonathan Whitehead]

National Weather Service:

A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD IS LIKELY BY MIDWEEK...AND
SNOW MAY ADD TO THE WINTER MISERY.

THE CURRENT STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS ONLY A SMALL
TASTE OF WHAT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS...NOW
BUILDING OVER ALASKA AND NORTHWESTERN CANADA... WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT ONCE IT GETS HERE...
IT WILL PLUNGE TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TO LEVELS THAT WILL
RIVAL THE COLDEST WEATHER THIS AREA HAS SEEN IN THE PAST 10 YEARS.
NEW FORECAST INFORMATION ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE CHANCE OF
SNOW...POSSIBLY INCLUDING ACCUMULATIONS...IS INCREASING AROUND
MIDWEEK.

THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY... RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPERATURES BY AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... AND THEN FLOOD THE ENTIRE OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS AREA TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN ZERO AND 20.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...AND WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE TEENS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD
WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE DANGEROUS... AND POSSIBLY LIFE
THREATENING... RANGE OF MINUS 5 TO PLUS 10 IN MOST AREAS FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN LATE IN THE WEEK... AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

CHANCES OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TUESDAY EVENING... AND THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS A LARGER PART OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS. LATEST FORECAST DATA INDICATES THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY IN PARTS OF NORTHERN... CENTRAL...
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. BLOWING SNOW ALSO MAY CONTRIBUTE TO HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY SHOWS SOME
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

IF YOU WILL NEED TO BE WORKING OUTDOORS OR ARE PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES...OR ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL LATER THIS WEEK... YOU SHOULD
MAKE APPROPRIATE PLANS NOW AND TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM THE COLD. KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST
INFORMATION AS THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER EVENT
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.

$$

A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT /OKCPNSOUN/ WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TIPS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD WEATHER.

24

I dont recall ever hearing such strong wording about an upcoming cold air event by any SRH WFOs so far out. In other words, this really is serious.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?warn...ather+Statement

 

[Robert Dewey]

LOL, we posted minutes apart regarding the same thing. I put a winter storm thread up - I think accumulating snow in the Southern Plains is a real possibility.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I thought there were a couple of days a few years ago where the high in OKC was in the mid-upper teens with lows near 5. That wording does seem pretty strong, but not sure it's warranted for only -5 to -10F wind chills... That's cold, but that's far from frigid cold... But maybe that's just the Minnesotan in me... I remember waking up Christmas morning in the mid 1990s with a temperature at my house of -29. Heck, the forecast high/low that OUN is warning about is actually warmer than the average high/low in the Twin Cities in mid-January. This isn't a "they're colder than us" type of thing, but the way that forecast discussion writer is speaking, you'd think we're going near absolute zero by mid-week -- LOL.

By the way... Chris, I'm surprised you haven't learn this yet... You have to adjust any forecast for Norman... Take any interesting weather and divide it by 10. 6" of snow forecast? Nope, Norman will only see 0.6". The Norman dome has a dampening effect on any interesting weather. Note that the dome is rather sharp at times, leading to the freezing line setting up immediately north of Norman, or the snow line getting to Purcell and tapering off to flurries in Norman.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Yeah, I do agree that discussion may be overboard. Heck, on Thanksgiving day we failed to hit 20F, and had wind chills around 0F - I'm still here :lol:

I think the bigger threat is snowfall though, not really cold. This would be the first snowfall of the season for that area, and a pretty significant one too (well, significant for the location I suppose).

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I'm going to lock this thread and encourage any forecast discussion to continue in the thread titled "12/07 - 12/10 WINTER STORM: SRN PLAINS, MIDWEST" --> http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9307 ...