Storm Chase Synoptics

[Paul Sherman]

This subject has been nagging away at me for some time and thought I would throw this into the ring to see what type of Set-Ups you prefer to chase in the Spring/Summer on the Plains.

Obviously quite a few synoptical solutions will throw up Tornadoes, but what do you find easier to Chase. Be it a piece of Dryline magic, or a Cold Core set-up to a raging squall line from hell on a Cold Front.

If the Spc had the following on their Day 1 where would you go and why.

Surface Low with Warm Front up in the Northern Plains.
Active Cold Front across Kansas
Dryline down through the Texas Panhandle.

Obviously you would take into account Shear,Moisture etc but just for this example every synoptic solution had equal amounts of the above.
Just thought I would find out if a certain set-up appeals more and why??

Regards

Paul Sherman

**I myself love Dryline Storms watching the Initiation and explosive Updraughts**

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

well, it all depends to me on the shear. normally I would take the dryline, thats where you commonly get some good stuff.. if you have good shear, and can not worry about linear grunge, the cold front isnt always bad, and the warm front, always holds nice potential, usually as it lifts north

But I would have to say Dryline for me..

 

[Paul Knightley]

Given we can only be there for 2 weeks or so, I'll take all 3 thanks!

However, a lone dry-line supercell in the TX Panhandle (south-west of AMA please!) would be very nice.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Well, if you're talking equal amounts of shear, moisture, and so forth, then the actual parcels should be just be exactly same in each situation and the storms will be similar. That only leaves the question of whether the synoptic/subsynoptic patterns will influence the storms. For example the cold front situation will usually result in undercutting of cells and outflow dominant modes, and the warm front situation could result in elevated storms depending on the warm front orientation and the cool air depth. The dryline situation is probably safest here, but if the storm is forming on the north side of the Canadian River, you're going to be dogged by some really crappy road options.

Tim

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

The "synoptically evident" days with a major approaching trough and strong shear tend to be disappointments, often because there is too little instability, thick clouds, linear forcing, the low-level winds veer out with afternoon mixing, or storm motions are too fast. Sure sometimes these work out such as 26 April 1991 or 4 May 03, but these seem to be major exceptions to the rule.

For good chaseable tornadoes, I'm becoming a much bigger fan of the more "subtle" days, usually involving a general WSW-SW flow over the plains, no early precip and clouds, falling pressures in the lee of the Rockies to induce some low-level backing and a low level jet, perhaps a diffuse leftover warm front, and high dewpoints. Great examples are 12 May 2004 (prolific tornado producing supercell near Anthony Kansas), Mulvane KS day, the Fairview OK event from 2007, the Mountain Park OK day from 2005, etc.

 

[David Williams]

I would take the dryline, as 1) warm front scenarios tend to be characterized by poor visibility, and 2) storms along cold fronts can be undercut by the cold air (as Tim pointed out). I can recall many tornado warnings for storms long cold fronts where the storm had strong rotation in the mid levels (undoubtedly impressive on radar), but from a field perspective, was being undercut by cold air at the surface.

There are many things to love about the dryline, but two of my favorite reasons for chasing dryline storms are the usually outstanding visibility and the spacing between storms that allows for the realization of potential instability. I wait all winter for the chance I get a few times a year to stand underneath an exploding tower on the dryline! What a rush!

P.S.: I'm new to the board, so this is post #1 for me. Happy to finally be onboard!

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I love this kinda threads.
No doubt this is the best pattern I could chase: the same as may 12 and may 29 2004 in the Harper county outbreaks. The best territory, to me, the best dry line, the best pictures, the wildest state. Deep layer shear at 40 kts, the air mass that is becoming increasingly instable in the warm sector with cape that reaches 3000-4000 J/Kg; the sounding mantains a strong cap till 6 pm and then the further heating and the convergence weaken the cap and you have the boom.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Triple point fan here...have had quite a bit of success on this type of chase...with the warm front and dryline second and third respectively. A good Texas Panhandle dryline can be a lot of fun though...June 8, 1995 brings back some very good memories. Forgot to mention the pre-frontal trough...these wind shift lines can be real monster producers when the CAPEs are high and the hopes are high too.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Were there any triple-point days in 2007 that produced tornadoes? The only day that comes to mind is 5/22? The dryline was the place to be this year IMO. Unfortunately, Northeast Kansas has yet to see a classic supercell in 2007! We were forced to drive nearly 300 miles one way, just to see anything this year.

 

[afischer]

This won't come as a huge surprise, but all my tornado days from I-80 south were from dryline storms.. while (nearly) all my tornado days north of I-80 were in fairly close proximity to synoptic surface lows and pseudo warm fronts. Guess that doesn't help much.

Choosing between the two isn't easy and is best done on a case-by-case basis, using your past experiences while keeping in mind Ma Nature may have a few tricks up her sleeve. April 13, 2007 is a recent textbook example of when folks had to choose. I armchair-chased that one from home and swore off the lifting warm front for targets farther southeast ahead of the dryline/pacific front... that strategy certainly didn't work out so well. May 11, 2005 and May 8, 2003 are a couple other examples... the dryline was the place to be on those events (I blew those too).

 

[Justin Teague]

I really don't have a "preferred" type of synoptic set-up. I find that throwing the rules out of the window and starting from scratch gives me the most success. That's not to say that I'm not more successful under certain synoptic situations, but I don't ever look at one area as having more potential than another, strictly based on the synoptic set-up. I don't want anyone to misinterpret that statement to mean that I don't believe that climatology has provided us with any type of starting point when forecasting severe weather, because that isn't the case at all. In a nutshell, I don't think the storms care what climatology says, so I like to start from scratch and completely explore the possiblities with an open mind, using science and past experience to explain why one target should be favored over another. This has lead to some truly dramatic and unique catches in my chasing career.

I have chased with many great chaser/forecasters and each seem to have their own unique style of forecasting. I have gained a great deal of knowledge from these people and we have all learned from eachothers mistakes. What I have taken away from it all is that with mother nature, there are no rules.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I chase any type of setup really as long as it gets me tornadoes. But if there is a scenario where you have an option of playing a WF or dryline such as a setup like May 29, 2004 or May 4, 2007. I'd always pick a dryline setup. But when I chase in places like Iowa chances are I'll go after a WF.

 

[Angie Norris]

My personal favorite is a nice dryline, simply because the storms tend to stay isolated and move at reasonable speeds. I don't care that much for warm fronts since visibilty is not always optimal and there can be excessive precip to deal with. Cold fronts are ok since I don't really mind chasing squall lines (yeah, I know...desperation makes you do strange things at times ), and if you're lucky, there's always the chance of something from initial isolated convection or good ol' tail end charlie.

 

[Brett Adair]

Well, my personal favorites have to be dryline storms. We don't see them very often here, but when we do they usually produce massive hail or tornadoes. This year I actually played the broad warm sector in the left entrance region of the jet. Just enough subsidence to keep the stratiform garbage away and set the stage for some decent supercells with the jet maxima punching in. For example, the 3/1/07 Enterprise, AL tornado event was in this classification. We had quite a few good twisters that day....pretty tragic day however.

 

[Paul Sherman]

Thanks for the replies guys and gals!!

So what to decipher from this

"Do NOT Chase a High Risk Dryline Set Up that falls on a Saturday in the Tx Panhandle"

Or you could encounter miles of Chasers

Paul S