Storm chase next week?

[Jim Bishop]

The Ensembles, and both the GFS & European Operational models continue to advertise 2 or 3 decent chase setups next Wed - Fri, possibly even Saturday across the Southern Plains. It's still too early to talk specifics, but mid to late next week looks active for severe weather across the Southern Plains.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Wednesday is starting to look very good across SW KS/ W OK/ TX Pan. Unfortunetly I can't chase that day because my dad will be flying back from Pittsburgh. GRRR. The rest of the week doesn't look very good at all according to the latest GFS. This does not bother me because the same situation happened on the Feb 23-24 event when the 24th looked bad and way to far east. The latest models are indicating the system will blow through, just like they thought on the 24th, and we thought we'd be chasing in SE MO at one point. It ended up in C Kansas, so I am not concerned. I am still confident that Thur-Sat may be interesting.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I agree that Wednesday looks like the best day for tornadoes since the low level winds start to veer by Thursday, killing the directional shear. I am thinking Wednesday's setup will get pushed back to Thursday though since the GFS is almost always too fast. Keeping in mind that we are a week out, my biggest concern is that the moisture won't get here in time for the day one chase when we have the shear profiles favorable for tornadoes.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

I agree with Chris that Wednesday has some potential. Looks like the panhandle regions/western Oklahoma may get some action. GFS shows a 998mb low in the Texas panhandle at 00z. Dryline looks sharp with upper 50 dews projected at this time. Upper flow looks ok too with 40-50kt 500mb flow which will keep storm speed down a bit. Something to look at in the next few days with the models for sure.

Chris
​

 

[Kenny Drake]

Keeping in mind that we are a week out, my biggest concern is that the moisture won't get here in time for the day one chase when we have the shear profiles favorable for tornadoes.

Well with all of the rain and flooding in Texas the soil will probably still be quite saturated across most of southern TX. The rain has already had a noticable effect on vegetation here in OK (where we didnt see much, maybe 1-2inches). Vegetation in TX can only be better, so evapotranspiration should help out. Even areas in NW TX (where the 500mb cut-off low was) received copious amounts of precipitation. I don't think moisture will be a problem even if the dryline sets up in the TX/OK panhandle. Of course, the hotter the 850mb temps, the stronger the CAP, the higher the convective temperature, and the more moisture needed to keep LCLs low.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

Evapotranspiration is always a nice bonus, but you aren't going to get more than a couple degrees bump on dewpoints from it. I don't see that as being a make or break variable for tornadoes. As is usually the problem this time of year, moisture is more than likely going to be the big question mark. If we don't have t-td spread less than 20 degrees then LCL's could definitely pose a problem.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Is evapotranspiration that big of a factor in those areas in mid to late March? When I think of evapotranspiration, I'm thinking on the lines of mid-April onward, with healthy corn stalks and trees that are budding.

 

[samuel stone]

The wheat is nice and green... but I know what you mean.

On another note I really like the backed surface winds on wednesday, but would any one else other than me like to see a little more veered mid level winds for A) more directional shear, and B) so that storms dont vent all over the storms to the north of them

 

[David Drummond]

The area being less arid than last year around this time should at the very least help keep the dryline from mixing out as fast eastward as it did many times last year.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Yea, I remember MANY times last year where the Td was in the mid 60's at noon here in Amarillo and mixed out to the low to mid 50's by peak heating.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Im really getting excited about this coming week. All 7 day forcasts for my area include at least 3 solid days of storms on Mon, Wed, and Thursday for sure. Sucks though I made a promise to myself that I wouldnt go on any big chases in the month of March so unless we get a nice sup within 100 mi of ICT metro I will once again find myself at the keyboard chasing from my office lol.

 

[Angie Norris]

Keeping my fingers crossed and an eye on the TX Panhandle....spring break next week, and I promised my young one steak at the Big Texan. If a storm "just happens" to be in the area...
Still too far out for more than wishcasting, so more later.

 

[Jim Bishop]

I've had my eyes on next Wednesday for a couple days now. It looks the most impressive from the GFS solution over North Texas/Oklahoma/Kansas with a surface low over Southwest Kansas and dryline convection firing over Western North Texas, Western Oklahoma and Western Kansas. Even the European shows a surface low over the high plains by 00z Thur.

Meanwhile Thur & Fri look complicated, as the main trough digs into Arizona/New Mexico, causing pressure falls over Southwest Texas and Mexico. A cold front will likely surge south over the high plains, bringing together some type of severe setup over Texas Thur and/or Fri.

It's interesting to note the European is slower to eject the main upper trough, suggesting a severe event next Saturday. Either way mid to late next week will be interesting indeed over the Southern Plains.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I hope the ecmwf is closer to correct than the current gfs. I just don't like the looks of the half-sheared over attitude of the gfs prog. It seems the ecmwf's attitude would yield more chase days, even if they came a bit later. It seems the current ecmwf is closer to what the gfs had been showing before it sped it up, closer to an event on the 24th(though wtih other hopes before that with any small waves obviously).

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Dang, trend on 18z gfs showing at least 3 chase days ending with a possible cold core event in n or nw KS. Please let the snow stay away from my path home.