Storm chase next week?

[Ray Walker]

Well it looks as though our next shot at severe weather will be sometime next week. Something I know for sure is that moisture return will cominse late this weekend on into next week, so severe weather should follow. Thats my short and sweet opinion for now.

 

[Jim Leonard]

I agree, we have to wait until the latter part of next week if the models are to be believed that far out. Both ecmwf and gfs are showing a nice western trough beginning to setup toward next Thursday. As of now the best threat of severe storms should begin somewhere in west Texas. If all goes well there should be mid-60's dewpoints ahead of this system.

 

[Willie Dines]

I'm going to stay open minded at the moment, but saying that, I'm going to keep checking the satellite imagery over the next 3 - 4 days, just to really get an idea of where will be the most likely spot, where any severe wx is likely

Unfortunately, I'm not in a position to be able to go out and chase lol, but I can still keep an eye out on the forecasts and satellite models, to get to grips with forecasting again

Willie

 

[matt patterson]

Apparently SPC has similar thoughts, maybe the last part of Spring Break here in the plains will get interesting...

...AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...A RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE SEEMS LIKELY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ADVANCES AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BUT...ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY WILL AWAIT THE
STRENGTHENING OF FLOW/VERTICAL SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF UPSTREAM
TROUGH...SOMETIME LATER NEXT WEEK.

 

[Jim Bishop]

Both the GFS & European Ensembles have been showing favorable conditions in both the 500mb mean flow and mslp for mid next week across the Plains. I've been watching this since Friday, and I agree that next Wed, Thur, or even Fri could be a decent chase day over the Central or Southern Plains. I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few chase opportunities preceeding that event with moderate southerly surface flow and an approaching upper trough. All in all next week has been looking like an active week for chasing for a few days now.

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

I too am getting more enthused over next week, and for that matter; right through the end of the month.. the overall evolution of the northern hemispheric pattern centred in this part of the world suggest a very active period coming up. What's interesting is that GOM sst's are quite a bit above normal, especially out over the central and southeastern GOM, if you believe the last several runs of the GFS, we have a couple of these systems ejecting out of the western trough right into a fetch of copious moisture from the gulf.

So, after my quick trip to Michigan's U.P last week where I experienced 5 below zero temps and almost three feet of snow on the ground.. I'm ready for chasing, and I think we'll be talking about some crazy stuff by month's end.. and who knows, some of it may even be true!!

Rocky&family

 

[Tony Laubach]

We've been discussing next week here among the Colorado folks for a couple days now as most of us go on Spring Break next week! How nice of nature to work with us on that, eh!

 

[Verne Carlson]

The only thing I don't like right now is the weakening of the upper low from a negatively tilted trough to a cutoff low. The moisture return ahead of this system looks pretty good with mid 50's Tds all the way up into NE. Keeping my fingers crossed on this one along with everyone else!

 

[Brian Stertz]

updated thoughts

Edit: the 12z GFS update was looking a bit rushed for this inbound Pacific system which should be timed for next weekend if the Euro is right. The GFS has a troubling past of moving these larger early spring systems eastward too quickly. Now comes the fine tuning period when the ext. models juggle scenarios, and it's anybody's guess as to how this will play out in realtime. Two things are in place...a fairly open Gulf and decent warm sector (particularly across Texas)...and an approaching fairly strong Pacific storm. The other factors will come into focus over the next 7 days...as anxious chasers (me included) sit on pins and needles as the next true chase ops come into view and plans are hashed out.

Prev. post this morning...

I've been keeping a very watchful eye on this for likely a chase down W.Texas way...and maybe as far north as Western & Southern Oklahoma and the N. Caprock/S.Texas Panhandle/NW Texas. Looks interesting for a late March dryline/warm front scenario. An added plus is that supercell motion would be in the managable 30-40 kts. for chasing. I am printing up my day off slip for next Friday....this may be a hard chase op to pass up and hold out for later spring action. It does look like the spring pattern opens up with aggressive fast flow across the Pacific. I am wondering if the storm that brought crazy amts of snow to parts of China will be a news maker here in the Plains as well.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

All I know is next week is spring break and I said that (without scientific evidence) that AoA the 20th of March we'd see a pattern change. I'll just keep sticking with my wishcast of copious storms on Spring Break and hope that it verifies

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I've got Spring Break too and I will definetly be out in the Plains chasing this setup. It would be awesome to see a three day event across the Plains. I see lots of potential in this system with abundant moisture and instability ahead of the system. It may start as early as Wdnesday and continue into Friday possibly Saturday. All I can say is bring it on!!!!!

 

[Mark Farnik]

I too am starting to be quite excited for nexthe chasing prospects late next week. Even though my Spring Break isn't until week after next, if this setup verifies even close to what it could be, I will be missing class next Friday, no questions asked.
Even though I'm not fully ready for the chase season yet, I'm willing to go it bare bones if there's a good chance of tornadic activity.
I'm with Michael 110% on this one: BRING IT ON, MA NATURE!

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

Verne Carlson wrote:

The only thing I don't like right now is the weakening of the upper low from a negatively tilted trough to a cutoff low. The moisture return ahead of this system looks pretty good with mid 50's Tds all the way up into NE. Keeping my fingers crossed on this one along with everyone else!
__________________


I'm keeping in mind that this is still a week off and I'm not totally buying this ontil I see the whites of its eyes. At this point in time though, a pattern change is almost a certainty.. I just hope this spring doesn't shoot all it's ammo early and we're stuck with that blasted death ridge in May

Rocky&family

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I'm keeping in mind that this is still a week off and I'm not totally buying this ontil I see the whites of its eyes. At this point in time though, a pattern change is almost a certainty.. I just hope this spring doesn't shoot all it's ammo early and we're stuck with that blasted death ridge in May

Rocky&family

I'd take a death ridge over the east coast troughing scenario of last year(after May 9), with a ridge in the west. I hope if it does indeed change that we can at least keep it for a while, or better yet, get rid of it till May then keep it for a while. That last change sure didn't last long. It went right back to the east coast troughing tendancy, where it keeps filling from distrubances diving south from Canada. I'm sure there is some name for that pattern, whatever it is, I don't like it....but...at least it's seemingly not doing too great of damage to the gulf, which will be good if a good pattern change sticks.

It's almost 80 here right now in eastern NE. Between that and this talk/pattern change I am very pumped to chase something real.

 

[Ray Walker]

LOL ya last year was ok up until May 9th for me. My last chase last year was the 9th of matter of fact. But anyway something I like about this system is it doesnt look to strong or to weak. It looks like one of those classic spring time systems were we very easily could have multiple chase days out across the southern plains.