Storm chase next week?

Ray Walker

Well it looks as though our next shot at severe weather will be sometime next week. Something I know for sure is that moisture return will cominse late this weekend on into next week, so severe weather should follow. Thats my short and sweet opinion for now.
 
I agree, we have to wait until the latter part of next week if the models are to be believed that far out. Both ecmwf and gfs are showing a nice western trough beginning to setup toward next Thursday. As of now the best threat of severe storms should begin somewhere in west Texas. If all goes well there should be mid-60's dewpoints ahead of this system.
 
I'm going to stay open minded at the moment, but saying that, I'm going to keep checking the satellite imagery over the next 3 - 4 days, just to really get an idea of where will be the most likely spot, where any severe wx is likely :)

Unfortunately, I'm not in a position to be able to go out and chase :) lol, but I can still keep an eye out on the forecasts and satellite models, to get to grips with forecasting again :)

Willie
 
Apparently SPC has similar thoughts, maybe the last part of Spring Break here in the plains will get interesting...
...AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...A RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE SEEMS LIKELY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ADVANCES AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BUT...ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY WILL AWAIT THE
STRENGTHENING OF FLOW/VERTICAL SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF UPSTREAM
TROUGH...SOMETIME LATER NEXT WEEK.
 
Both the GFS & European Ensembles have been showing favorable conditions in both the 500mb mean flow and mslp for mid next week across the Plains. I've been watching this since Friday, and I agree that next Wed, Thur, or even Fri could be a decent chase day over the Central or Southern Plains. I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few chase opportunities preceeding that event with moderate southerly surface flow and an approaching upper trough. All in all next week has been looking like an active week for chasing for a few days now.
 
I too am getting more enthused over next week, and for that matter; right through the end of the month.. the overall evolution of the northern hemispheric pattern centred in this part of the world suggest a very active period coming up. What's interesting is that GOM sst's are quite a bit above normal, especially out over the central and southeastern GOM, if you believe the last several runs of the GFS, we have a couple of these systems ejecting out of the western trough right into a fetch of copious moisture from the gulf.

So, after my quick trip to Michigan's U.P last week where I experienced 5 below zero temps and almost three feet of snow on the ground.. I'm ready for chasing, and I think we'll be talking about some crazy stuff by month's end.. and who knows, some of it may even be true!!:rolleyes:

Rocky&family
 
We've been discussing next week here among the Colorado folks for a couple days now as most of us go on Spring Break next week! How nice of nature to work with us on that, eh! :D
 
The only thing I don't like right now is the weakening of the upper low from a negatively tilted trough to a cutoff low. The moisture return ahead of this system looks pretty good with mid 50's Tds all the way up into NE. Keeping my fingers crossed on this one along with everyone else!
 
updated thoughts

Edit: the 12z GFS update was looking a bit rushed for this inbound Pacific system which should be timed for next weekend if the Euro is right. The GFS has a troubling past of moving these larger early spring systems eastward too quickly. Now comes the fine tuning period when the ext. models juggle scenarios, and it's anybody's guess as to how this will play out in realtime. Two things are in place...a fairly open Gulf and decent warm sector (particularly across Texas)...and an approaching fairly strong Pacific storm. The other factors will come into focus over the next 7 days...as anxious chasers (me included) sit on pins and needles as the next true chase ops come into view and plans are hashed out.

Prev. post this morning...

I've been keeping a very watchful eye on this for likely a chase down W.Texas way...and maybe as far north as Western & Southern Oklahoma and the N. Caprock/S.Texas Panhandle/NW Texas. Looks interesting for a late March dryline/warm front scenario. An added plus is that supercell motion would be in the managable 30-40 kts. for chasing. I am printing up my day off slip for next Friday....this may be a hard chase op to pass up and hold out for later spring action. It does look like the spring pattern opens up with aggressive fast flow across the Pacific. I am wondering if the storm that brought crazy amts of snow to parts of China will be a news maker here in the Plains as well. :confused:
 
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All I know is next week is spring break and I said that (without scientific evidence) that AoA the 20th of March we'd see a pattern change. I'll just keep sticking with my wishcast of copious storms on Spring Break and hope that it verifies :D
 
I've got Spring Break too and I will definetly be out in the Plains chasing this setup. It would be awesome to see a three day event across the Plains. I see lots of potential in this system with abundant moisture and instability ahead of the system. It may start as early as Wdnesday and continue into Friday possibly Saturday. All I can say is bring it on!!!!!:D
 
I too am starting to be quite excited for nexthe chasing prospects late next week. Even though my Spring Break isn't until week after next, if this setup verifies even close to what it could be, I will be missing class next Friday, no questions asked.:D
Even though I'm not fully ready for the chase season yet, I'm willing to go it bare bones if there's a good chance of tornadic activity.
I'm with Michael 110% on this one: BRING IT ON, MA NATURE!
 
Verne Carlson wrote:

The only thing I don't like right now is the weakening of the upper low from a negatively tilted trough to a cutoff low. The moisture return ahead of this system looks pretty good with mid 50's Tds all the way up into NE. Keeping my fingers crossed on this one along with everyone else!
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I'm keeping in mind that this is still a week off and I'm not totally buying this ontil I see the whites of its eyes. At this point in time though, a pattern change is almost a certainty.. I just hope this spring doesn't shoot all it's ammo early and we're stuck with that blasted death ridge in May

Rocky&family
 
I'm keeping in mind that this is still a week off and I'm not totally buying this ontil I see the whites of its eyes. At this point in time though, a pattern change is almost a certainty.. I just hope this spring doesn't shoot all it's ammo early and we're stuck with that blasted death ridge in May

Rocky&family

I'd take a death ridge over the east coast troughing scenario of last year(after May 9), with a ridge in the west. I hope if it does indeed change that we can at least keep it for a while, or better yet, get rid of it till May then keep it for a while. That last change sure didn't last long. It went right back to the east coast troughing tendancy, where it keeps filling from distrubances diving south from Canada. I'm sure there is some name for that pattern, whatever it is, I don't like it....but...at least it's seemingly not doing too great of damage to the gulf, which will be good if a good pattern change sticks.

It's almost 80 here right now in eastern NE. Between that and this talk/pattern change I am very pumped to chase something real.
 
LOL ya last year was ok up until May 9th for me. My last chase last year was the 9th of matter of fact. But anyway something I like about this system is it doesnt look to strong or to weak. It looks like one of those classic spring time systems were we very easily could have multiple chase days out across the southern plains.
 
The Ensembles, and both the GFS & European Operational models continue to advertise 2 or 3 decent chase setups next Wed - Fri, possibly even Saturday across the Southern Plains. It's still too early to talk specifics, but mid to late next week looks active for severe weather across the Southern Plains.
 
Wednesday is starting to look very good across SW KS/ W OK/ TX Pan. Unfortunetly I can't chase that day because my dad will be flying back from Pittsburgh. GRRR. The rest of the week doesn't look very good at all according to the latest GFS. This does not bother me because the same situation happened on the Feb 23-24 event when the 24th looked bad and way to far east. The latest models are indicating the system will blow through, just like they thought on the 24th, and we thought we'd be chasing in SE MO at one point. It ended up in C Kansas, so I am not concerned. I am still confident that Thur-Sat may be interesting.
 
I agree that Wednesday looks like the best day for tornadoes since the low level winds start to veer by Thursday, killing the directional shear. I am thinking Wednesday's setup will get pushed back to Thursday though since the GFS is almost always too fast. Keeping in mind that we are a week out, my biggest concern is that the moisture won't get here in time for the day one chase when we have the shear profiles favorable for tornadoes.
 
I agree with Chris that Wednesday has some potential. Looks like the panhandle regions/western Oklahoma may get some action. GFS shows a 998mb low in the Texas panhandle at 00z. Dryline looks sharp with upper 50 dews projected at this time. Upper flow looks ok too with 40-50kt 500mb flow which will keep storm speed down a bit. Something to look at in the next few days with the models for sure.

Chris
 
Keeping in mind that we are a week out, my biggest concern is that the moisture won't get here in time for the day one chase when we have the shear profiles favorable for tornadoes.

Well with all of the rain and flooding in Texas the soil will probably still be quite saturated across most of southern TX. The rain has already had a noticable effect on vegetation here in OK (where we didnt see much, maybe 1-2inches). Vegetation in TX can only be better, so evapotranspiration should help out. Even areas in NW TX (where the 500mb cut-off low was) received copious amounts of precipitation. I don't think moisture will be a problem even if the dryline sets up in the TX/OK panhandle. Of course, the hotter the 850mb temps, the stronger the CAP, the higher the convective temperature, and the more moisture needed to keep LCLs low.
 
Evapotranspiration is always a nice bonus, but you aren't going to get more than a couple degrees bump on dewpoints from it. I don't see that as being a make or break variable for tornadoes. As is usually the problem this time of year, moisture is more than likely going to be the big question mark. If we don't have t-td spread less than 20 degrees then LCL's could definitely pose a problem.
 
Is evapotranspiration that big of a factor in those areas in mid to late March? When I think of evapotranspiration, I'm thinking on the lines of mid-April onward, with healthy corn stalks and trees that are budding.
 
The wheat is nice and green... but I know what you mean.

On another note I really like the backed surface winds on wednesday, but would any one else other than me like to see a little more veered mid level winds for A) more directional shear, and B) so that storms dont vent all over the storms to the north of them
 
The area being less arid than last year around this time should at the very least help keep the dryline from mixing out as fast eastward as it did many times last year.
 
Yea, I remember MANY times last year where the Td was in the mid 60's at noon here in Amarillo and mixed out to the low to mid 50's by peak heating.
 
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