SPC FCST Approach

[Michael Towers]

I find it interesting and somewhat amusing that language used in a SWODY at times resembles those from a chaser’s perspective. I would think that when describing an “area of concern†the forecaster would be discussing something relating to the increasing of severe potential, but many times the “area of concern†relates to a factor that would diminish prospects for severe potential. The chaser or storm enthusiast mentality can be observed in text such as “an area of concern is a strong cap but diurnal heating accompanied by advection of LL moisture should increase SBCAPE to 2500 J/KG and if timing of advancing dryline coincides with strongest heating Deep Layer Shear of 60 Kt will be sufficient for Supercells to develop…†Shouldn’t it be the other way around? “A strong cap may prohibit convective development but an area of concern will be SBCAPE values increasing to 2500 J/KG accompanied by an advancing dryline…†Personally I like the enthusiast mentality but is that approach the proper one? Shouldn’t a forecast for the public be framed where the concern is for severe development vs. concern against it?

 

[Dan Robinson]

It depends on your perspective. The word 'concern' can have two different connotations. 'To be concerned' with something can mean you are simply giving careful attention to an important factor in a forecast, rather than being 'worried' about it. I see the SPC using the word in the former context, acknowledging that there are factors to consider carefully, IE to be concerned with - not neccessarily with any implied negative emotion.

 

[rdale]

Agree with Dan - it's not a "lack of enthusiasm" but saying "if this happens my forecast will have to change."

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I agree with the last two posts. In addition to that I think Michael makes a valid point about how that could be interpretted by the public. I have always been a little annoyed by the notion that some people may have a problem with storm chasers because we want severe weather and tornadoes to occur. Assuming the SPC forecaster had the same mentality, what difference does it make anyway? It's not like we have an influence on what actually happens. Some times I almost feel like I need to be careful about publicly rooting for a tornado outbreak. I don't want anybody's house to get hit or anybody to get killed, but you better believe I am always pulling for tornadoes.