Severe weather in southeastern Brazil

[LucasMarcomini]

Hello all,
I know that with things getting even busier in the US tornado season this won't get much attention, but there's a possibility of a severe weather even in Southeastern Brasil begining late Wednesday going through early Friday.

Here's the HPC International Desk Discussion:

MODELS INITIALIZE A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE MODELS FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS IT GRADUALLY PULLS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. AT LOW LEVELS...THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
MEANDER ACROSS RIO DE JANEIRO/SAO PAULO TO PARAGUAY DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AMAZONIAN MOISTURE WILL CONVERGE ALONG THE TAIL
END OF THIS FRONT...TO FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MATO
GROSSO DO SUL IN BRASIL TO PARAGUAY...WITH MAXIMA OF 10-15MM
THROUGH 36 HRS. AT 36-60 HRS EXPECTING A SURGE IN ACTIVITY AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRIGGERS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION/MESO
SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY. THIS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS SAO PAULO/PARANA IN BRASIL. THROUGH
72-84 HRS IT WILL DECREASE TO 20-45MM/DAY.

Here are some GFS images for Thursday Afternoon

And here's MM5's forecast:

I'm very interested in this event, since it will focus in my state (São Paulo), and particulary to MM5's forecast, because that strong vorticity and moderate SWEAT areas are in my region. Even though GFS is a low resolution model, it is forecasting some decent EHI 0-3km values. SRH will be around -200/-150, so we could see some supercells I belive. The only factors that are missing per GFS are Deep layer shear (around 10m/s) and medium levels Lapse Rates.


Thank you.

 

[LucasMarcomini]

00Z GFS run enhanced EHI 0-3km up to -3 in São Paulo.
0-1km Bulk Shear will be around 15m/s and CAPE is going to reach 3000j/kg.
Looking interesting. Storms will move very fast, around 20-25m/s.

This is the 12Z sounding for the São Paulo
http://i.imgur.com/dWmHq.gif