Red Flag Warnings

[Jason Bolt]

It seems to me that there are some products where one WFO may be quick to issue while a neighboring WFO just won't. Today's Red Flag Warnings are a good example.

Warnings have been issued on all sides of ICT CWO. No warning for ICT. What is real interesting is OBS at some of these sites right now. In SGF area:

SGF- Springfield, MO 15:52 Fair 10+ 67 33 29 S 10

KJLN- Joplin, MO 15:53 Fair 10+ 69 29 22 S 14

ICT- Temp 73
Humidity: 17 %
Wind Speed: S 31 G 38 MPH

DDC- Dodge City 03:52 PM Fair and Windy 78ºF 24ºF 13% S 29 G 41

Tulsa- Humidity: 22 %
Wind Speed: S 18 G 25 MPH

Topeka- Humidity: 19 %
Wind Speed: S 17 G 25 MPH

I find it interesting that some of the worst conditions for fire danger are right there in ICT, which has no RFW issued despite being surrounded by warnings from neighboring WFOs. Maybe it's just my ADHD acting up, but I think this looks bad. I've seen several HWO and AFD that mentions continuity and/or matching up w/ neighboring WFOs. Are some offices jumping the gun on a Red Flag Warning, or are some not issuing one when it is warranted? I'm not sure, but something doesn't look right.

 

[rdale]

First thing to note is that RFW criteria are entirely local. Per the NWS directives:

"Red Flag Event criteria are determined by coordination between WFO personnel and land management users in the WFO fire weather service area."

"Forecasters should coordinate with local fire and land managers and Predictive Services prior to the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch or Red Flag Warning."

Have you checked with the local land management agencies to get their thoughts on the situation? How bad were the fires in that area today?

Second thing to note is that the public doesn't give a hoot about RFW's. Most burn permits require you to check with the local FD, and they often would have a better feel about the localized conditions than a widespread regional product.