Anonymous
Notice from the recon vortex message that it was observation number 3 for that flight, so 88 kts was the highest they encountered on only their first imbound leg. Looking at the supplemental vortex message, they encountered 124 kts at flight level on their outbound leg.
Obviously the west/northwest quadrant of the hurricane has deteriorated significantly, but the severe core still appears to be together and should still be pretty strong. The doppler velocities are still quite impressive and indicative of a strong cat 3 or weak cat 4 storm.
Given the weakening, the slightly more eastward track and the erosion of the western side of the storm, the doomsday scenario for New Orleans is indeed looking a lot less likely. Yet another reminder that it's not possible to say with certainty 24 hours out what's going to happen with a hurricane.
Obviously the west/northwest quadrant of the hurricane has deteriorated significantly, but the severe core still appears to be together and should still be pretty strong. The doppler velocities are still quite impressive and indicative of a strong cat 3 or weak cat 4 storm.
Given the weakening, the slightly more eastward track and the erosion of the western side of the storm, the doomsday scenario for New Orleans is indeed looking a lot less likely. Yet another reminder that it's not possible to say with certainty 24 hours out what's going to happen with a hurricane.
