Real-time Chase Cases (virtual chasing)

[Ryan McGinnis]

Even if you can't chase you can still participate in the forecast and now threads. Why should we split discussion on a current event into two separate areas? In a forecast thread you can say, "I would target here, because..." even if you aren't chasing. Later on you could say something like. "Based on an initial target of here, I would relocate to here because..."

I think this arose because David used to post "I am currently travelling down I-70" or "repositioning to Hays" type things in the NOW thread when in reality, he was just virtually chasing along from his computer at home. Some people got annoyed because they cluttered up the NOW threads and made them a bit confusing, since they were posted in such a way as to sound as if David was actually there on the ground making observations. David is proposing that a seperate type of thread be created for people who want to pretend to chase on a day when they can't actually get out there -- a sort of virtual "game" to play on chasedays when you're stuck at home. I think this is a swell idea, though I've never really seen anyone else out there express an interest in virtual chasing a storm on Storm Track. Maybe if an area were made, more people would be interested -- who knows. At any rate, if it keeps people who are in essence roleplaying a chase game from posting roleplayed ground observations in threads that are filled with people who are really chasing and are posting real ground observations, I'm all for it.

 

[Mark Blue]

This sounds eerily reminiscent of the same discussion that took place in the first week of May 2007 in this very same section of ST. That thread became a little out of control if my memory serves me correctly. I think everyone from time to time wants to "virtually" try out their chase forecast skills when they are at home and can't be in the field actually chasing. I really don't see why this would hurt if it was kept in a proper section of the forum created for this purpose.

 

[John Farley]

I wouldn't want to see the FCST and NOW threads limited to people actually chasing that day. Sometimes good insights come from people armchair chasing that day, and the signal to noise ratio isn't always that high from people out in the field, e.g. "I'm sitting in ____ waiting for initiation" or "Now I'm blasting west on ____." (Yes, I admit I've done this a time or two myself, but now really try to refrain unless I've got some forecast/observation reasoning to share.) Point is, it is the quality of the posts that matters to me, and I think good moderation can keep that quality high without saying you have to be actively chasing to post.

Having said that, I also want to say two other things, just to be clear. First, I do NOT favor "I'm now moving north on ___ to intercept storms I expect to develop in ___ because of ___" comments from armchair chasers (just give your observations or forecasts and reasoning, not your fantasy chase movements). Second, although I don't want the FCST and NOW threads limited to people in the field, I do think it is fine to have real-time chase case threads, especially as a way of encouraging a safe place for newbies or folks with limited forecasting confidence to take a crack at forecasting.

 

[Shane Adams]

After looking over this thread, it's my opinion that this idea isn't a bad one for this simple reason: it fits 90% of ST members. There are far fewer chasers on ST now than enthusiasts, and naturally ST is going to want to trend towards making the majority happy.

 

[Bob Hartig]

One of my first acquisitions in my learning curve was CAPE, so naturally, I looked for where the biggest CAPE was. CAPE was my silver bullet, and my contribution to a Forecast Discussion at that point would have been, "I see 3,000 CAPE in Iowa." So do the rest of you, but you also see an unbreakable cap and crap in the way of kinematics.

Would a comment like mine have added value to a FCST thread? It takes time to learn concepts, and we tend to do so one or two at a time. A real-time chase case thread provides a great opportunity for tenderfeet to put things together bit by bit without lowering the quality of the FCST threads. And it doesn't have to be an either/or thing. There's no reason an experienced chaser who's following a developing scenario at home can't offer valuable info on the FCST thread.

 

[David Wolfson]

I think Shane's observation is right-on, but I don't see it as a bash of STs membership. In fact I think it has always been true. Close to 100% of ST members are "enthusiasts". But other than the height of chase-cation season I doubt that even 10% of STs members are out in the field on a given chase day. We all know and share the reasons why this is so: benefit/cost, distance, work and family obligations, health, and so forth.

I didn't intend for this to be a discussion of the FCST and NOW thread policies. While I do think RTV chase cases would improve the Target Area s/n somewhat, the mods have handled them well and they've worked pretty well IMO.

 

[Darren Addy]

After looking over this thread, it's my opinion that this idea isn't a bad one for this simple reason: it fits 90% of ST members. There are far fewer chasers on ST now than enthusiasts, and naturally ST is going to want to trend towards making the majority happy.

Shane,
I've got a lot of respect for you and your chasing skills, as well as your understanding that a chaser has to face a steep learning curve (face it, you will suck for the first few years, particularly at forecasting). So I'm not sure if you meant for this comment to sound condescending (or not). I think that in any endeavor you will find that there are those who have scaled the learning curve (and are much farther up the mountain) and you will find greater numbers down below (in the process of learning). For whatever reason, some of them will drop out, but some may be just a determined to get there - it just takes them time.

So I'd like to make a proposal: Let's just formulate a style of forum post that is similar to the current FORECAST threads, but is found in the "Weather Discussion - beginners and nonchasers" section (rather than the Target Area). That way, we keep the lower quality forecasts out of the "real" forecast threads and those more experienced chasers/forecasters who are interested in mentoring (like those who answer questions put forward in that forum now) can help them along, if they feel so inclined. This forum could also be used to DISCUSS posts made in the real FORECAST threads, as a way to learn. The thread for a given day could extend through the actual event and even into post-mortem discussion (*so calling it a FORECAST thread is not entirely accurate). The idea is to keep all discussion (forecast through post-mortem) for a given date in the same thread where it is easy to find.

Hopefully, in time, as one's confidence and accuracy grows, they can move share their forecasting in the Target Area threads.

A lot of the questions in the Beginners forum is aimed at this goal anyway, this just helps by creating day-specific discussions where data/maps can be posted and discussed. And it keeps it out of the Target Area where the emphasis is on high-quality content.

Non-chasers who feel qualified can still contribute the the NOW thread as they do now, but if they also want to mentor, they are free to monitor the Beginners forum also.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Guess I never actually expressed my opinion on whether or not virtual real time chase case is a good idea - I just provided my ideas on how it should be done to do it right.

I don't have a problem with it. The forum is large and why not let members so inclined do as they wish...what's the harm and it can help them learn in the atmosphere of a little friendly competition.

I don't think this has anything to do with FCST or NOW threads nor should it. It should be a completely separate animal.

I'm surprised a few of you believe that ST membership is mainly enthusiast non-active chasers. It was my impression that there are more chasers now by far than ever before, but perhaps I am wrong? Is this because ST is just huge membership and therefore even though more chasers there are also way more enthusiast non-actives? Are you saying there are fewer chasers nowadays...I'm just curious. If so, would you hazard to guess it is based on economic downturn and increased gas prices?

 

[Bob Hartig]

I'm surprised a few of you believe that ST membership is mainly enthusiast non-active chasers. It was my impression that there are more chasers now by far than ever before, but perhaps I am wrong? Is this because ST is just huge membership and therefore even though more chasers there are also way more enthusiast non-actives? Are you saying there are fewer chasers nowadays...I'm just curious. If so, would you hazard to guess it is based on economic downturn and increased gas prices?

I think it's something of a subjective issue, a matter of what different people's conceptions are of a storm chaser. I consider myself to be a storm chaser because I know the dues I've paid, the miles I've logged to get to where I am, and the miles I hope to log in the future pursuing one of my two intense passions in life. But I suppose some of the more experienced chasers here would consider me to be just an enthusiast because I haven't spent two weeks at a time out out on the Plains during peak season. I don't take that badly, and it doesn't affect me. I do what I do for love of the storms, and I don't care much about the labels. You can call me what you want, just as long as you do it with respect.

 

[David Wolfson]

I don't think it helps the cause to present RTV chasing as a Junior Varsity version of posting to the Target Area, just as flight simulators weren't created for flying "enthusiasts" who never pilot aircraft. For that reason, I'd hope to see RTV Chase Cases in the "advanced" area rather than the "beginner" area. I would hope that experienced field chasers and atmospheric scientists would get some jollies out of them, too, when they're not themselves out in the field -- which I reiterate is much of the time.

 

[Paul Austin]

I think this arose because David used to post "I am currently travelling down I-70" or "repositioning to Hays" type things in the NOW thread when in reality, he was just virtually chasing along from his computer at home. Some people got annoyed because they cluttered up the NOW threads and made them a bit confusing, since they were posted in such a way as to sound as if David was actually there on the ground making observations. David is proposing that a seperate type of thread be created for people who want to pretend to chase on a day when they can't actually get out there -- a sort of virtual "game" to play on chasedays when you're stuck at home. I think this is a swell idea, though I've never really seen anyone else out there express an interest in virtual chasing a storm on Storm Track. Maybe if an area were made, more people would be interested -- who knows. At any rate, if it keeps people who are in essence roleplaying a chase game from posting roleplayed ground observations in threads that are filled with people who are really chasing and are posting real ground observations, I'm all for it.

I think there would be quite a bit of interest in this type of section. As noted by many, the above type of post in NOW threads occur regularly; the Chase Case scenarios in the advanced section are hugely popular; this is not the first discussion of such an area; RT chase info sites such as SpotterNet and SevereStreaming are quite popular among both chasers and enthusiasts.

I've done a fair amount of silent virtual chasing on my own, because there was no area to play it out publicly. Those of us living in FL or CA or Canada can only chase a very limited number of setups during Chasecations or weekend trips. So I fight SDS by virtual chasing, taking time of travel, initial target location, daylight, realistic limitations, etc. into account. SpotterNet and streaming sites makes this quite fun, though not nearly as rewarding as an actual chase. I know. Not all factors and challenges can be simulated. No one slides off a muddy KS road, or misses the tube due to rain wrap, or gets stuck in construction traffic, or has to deal with flat tires, full bladders, chaser congestion, aggravated law enforcement, debris-covered roads, etc. in a virtual chase. But the absence of all these challenges allows the virtual chaser the chance to focus on the other aspects of chasing to improve those areas, so that when in the real chase situation those obstacles occur, the chaser is not overwhelmed. I think it would be quite popular. And perhaps with time it would move some of the less confident enthusiasts on the board toward a more active chaser/forecaster status.

I have often discussed my RTV chase and decisions in real time with my ST siblings (Marc and Sarah) as a learning op, and they have participated with similar RTV chases as a means for practice. I've had good days and complete busts, but I've always learned something in the process. I would welcome the discussion, feedback, and even friendly scrutiny in such an area.

 

[Shane Adams]

I'm not sure if you meant for this comment to sound condescending (or not).

Not at all, I'm just making a key observation to the point of this topic. I know a lot of times what I say comes off that way, but I think that's more because I'm prone to speaking out on topics many others feel the same way about but keep to themselves.

All I meant by that comment was, the majority of ST members could probably benefit from this. It's no secret that ST caters more towards the general wx-enthusiast (not a bad thing) than hardcore chasers, and when you consider that hardcore chasers are already "taken care of" more or less (strict enforcement of rules in TARGET AREA to eliminate signal/noise ratio) I see no reason why the RTV thing shouldn't happen.

I also agree with you that as a person grows and learns, they could "graduate" and become more confident in their ability to post publicly their forecasting and even chase strategy thoughts. FWIW, I'm not a great forecaster, and could probably benefit from the RTV practice myself, except that I just don't enjoy meteorology which means I see forecasting as a necessary evil; I only bother to learn what I feel I need to truly increase my chances to see tornadoes. I'll never be the type person who wants to be a "sponge" and just learn everything that's put in front of me, because I don't find math and problem-solving exercises interesting at all. I also don't believe that hardcore meterological skills are needed to become a successful chaser. I need to be able to associate practical application to anything I learn for me to be able to concentrate and actually learn it, otherwise I consider it "knowledge for the sake of knowledge" which doesn't motivate me whatsoever to learn. Knowing stuff doesn't interest me at all. Knowing stuff that I can apply to real-world benefit does.

Wow, that was a ramble.

 

[Darren Addy]

Perhaps, but it was a GOOD ramble.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

I don't think it helps the cause to present RTV chasing as a Junior Varsity version of posting to the Target Area, just as flight simulators weren't created for flying "enthusiasts" who never pilot aircraft. For that reason, I'd hope to see RTV Chase Cases in the "advanced" area rather than the "beginner" area. I would hope that experienced field chasers and atmospheric scientists would get some jollies out of them, too, when they're not themselves out in the field -- which I reiterate is much of the time.

Seems like a good idea to me, though sticking it in the Beginners section might encourage more participation -- some posters might be intimidated by the Advanced section, though that's just a hunch. There is also the issue of the "No nowcasts or forecasts" rule in the Advanced section -- it'd be kinda hard to play a realtime roleplaying chaser game without making forecasts and nowcasts.

I imagine for some it could also be a fun little thing for off-season, too. Tornado season isn't over when it shuts down in the U.S. -- I seem to remember a Chinese poster here a year or two back that would post radar grabs of some whopper supercells in southeastern China.

 

[David Wolfson]

You've changed my mind, Ryan. Putting them in the Beginners' section makes sense, and the "real chasers" can participate taking comfort that they're helping educate rather than putting their skills out for scrutiny and criticism. Plus there wouldn't need to be a tweak of the "no forecast/nowcast rule".