Real-time Chase Cases (virtual chasing)

[David Wolfson]

I'd like to open up this for discussion again, what with the considerable interest other ST members have shown lately in historical "chase cases".

The way I see it working is that an ST member interested in virtual chasing a particular day would open a thread in Weather Discussion - Advanced (for now) titled "RT Chase Case mm/dd/yy" -- perhaps no more than three days in advance. From then on it would work pretty much like the historical chase cases. Participants try to keep it real, keep criticisms of others to a minimum, and say something about why they're "doing" what they're "doing". It's up to participants to get their own data and analyses as they become available. If so inclined an interested member could take on a case moderator role, posting locations, declaring "out-of-bounds" moves, and/or summarizing and critiquing the results.

One significant benefit IMO would be keeping some of the clutter out of the FCST and NOW threads on chase days. At the same time field chasers could benefit from some of the observations they might find there. FWIW.

 

[Danny Neal]

I believe it would improve ST as it would open it back up to REAL weather discussion again. Plus for the newer members or the people who are still not that good at forecasting....it gives them a place to post outside of the main area. It was always my belief that the NOW and FCST threads were for the people that had a good grasp of the events taking place and can have educated discussions about advanced meteorological events. Now I am not saying I am a great forecaster (pssh maybe decent at best) but to have an area to make mock forecasts and virtual chasing would be a good learning technique and defer attention from the annual flame war. I would much rather argue and ***** and moan to someone about a forecast, then about someone who sits there and critiques the way I drive. Don't have to make a new sections or add anything to ST but just make it known for those who don't have a good grasp on things to post their virtual forecast that can be critiqued by other members of ST. I like when people tell me I am wrong, it gives me an opportunity to learn and improve.

Not to say anything is wrong with the current system, but sometimes the forecast thread become cluttered with one lined non meteorological content from people that feel compelled to post just to fit into the discussion.........Having a beginners/virtual forecasting thread is a way to make people feel comfortable posting (at any level) with out consequence. Generally in the FCST if you post "The SPC has a slight risk of SVR T-Storms in IL on Day 3, I may be chasing that day" then you may get a warning or infraction for not complying with the rules. Well in a different section that David proposes, it opens the door for discussion for such questions as "why do you think that? Where do you target? etc" If you don't know then I am sure there are many out there that will help you piece it together. Sort of how Sam Kennedy did things. Just combine a thread like his with others of its kind and let the learning begin!

 

[Skip Talbot]

This is a great idea, David. I think it might work best if all archived data including forecast maps, radar/satllite imagery, and text products are loaded into a website which automatically releases them on a schedule. The participants would browse the products as if the event were occuring in real time. It would be super cool if you could plot your initial target on Google Maps and then adjust as the day progresses. Your adjustments would be limited in distance to how much time has elapsed. Then you could gauge how close you got to any tubes.

 

[Adam Lucio]

I think its a good idea too. These cases have been great so far. I know Ive tried my best to keep the distance as real as possible [i.e. im not in Iowa at 15z and then in north texas by 21z]

I dont think giving the date away at the beginning would work though. Anyone could check the SPC logs and see what happened and where for that day. I think the anonymous date system works best. I believe most of us here wouldnt do this though, but you dont want to open that door and tempt people. Just my opinion.

I hope the cases keep coming regardless if any type of "order" or system is developed. I know Im going to try and exercise them as real as possible...for myself.

 

[Shane Adams]

What's the point if the dates are revealed? Is anyone really learning when they already know what happened? There's already enough "how do you forecast?" posts on here; we need the anonymity to truly put to the test the forecasting ability of ST members. It rocks as it is...we just need to keep it one at a time. Multiple chase cases bleed into one another and make it confusing and irritating (IMO).

And FWIW....no online workshop created and designed to "teach" people how to forecast is going to work. To be a chaser and to learn how to forecast chases takes years of experience, failure and trial-by-error. There's no way to hurry this natural process along, and I think it's folly and narrow-minded to propose it's possible with a few mock forecast threads. The problem with chasing is we're trying to teach newbies that they can be great out of the box. But they can't.

If you decide to chase and want to truly learn the art, accept the fact you're going to suck at it for a while before you start to "get it".

 

[David Wolfson]

Maybe as usual I'm not being very clear.... This should work as real-time, virtual chasing. You use whatever data products you prefer that would be available to you as and if they become available. Many of these products are being archived and could be reconstructed for a historical chase case scenario, but that's another matter. You as a virtual chaser often have more focused data available relative to your own location than is feasible to archive and package in a one-size-fits-all scenario anyway.

If for example I were interested in Monday as a real-time chase case day, I'd post in the RT Chase Case 01/05/09 thread that I'm headed for someplace because blah-blah SPC says blah-blah WRF blah-blah EF5 for sure blah-blah if I bust there's the world's biggest cow pie there anyway -- whatever. Then you play it out as if....

 

[Shane Adams]

So you're talking about virtual chasing real events as_they_happen...I get that. And I agree it would be cool.

I took your original post to mean the same thing except using past events...but I gotcha now.

 

[Darren Addy]

If I follow David, he's essentially proposing a new kind of "chase day" thread. Right now we have FCST (before the event), NOW (once initiation has sharted), REPORTS (from actual chasers after the chase is over) and DISC (other post-storm discussion). It sounds as if he's proposing a VIRTUAL CHASE thread which would begin at most the day before an anticipated event, but allow anyone to share their decision making process all the way through the actual chase day. I would imagine that such a VIRTUAL CHASE thread could also include some post-mortem discussion regarding the thinking choices that were made during the day.

If I'm reading this right (correct me if I'm not) what I like about it is that it creates a clear demarcation between the posts of those that are truly in the field and those who are desktop chasing (for whatever reason) on a given day. Let's face it, there is a lot of collective wisdom that may not be free to chase on a given day, for whatever reason, but are still following along.

I think it would be a benefit for everyone, the participants and the newbies to "listen in" on the thinking processes that go into interpreting the data (and models) of a particular setup.

 

[Paul Austin]

I got your thinking the first time, David, so it was pretty clear. I agree with you. I'm not sure about all the particulars, but I do see this as a way to declutter to some extent the never-ending NOW discussions. All the "I'd be in XXXXX, TX right now watching the wedge that giant hook is putting down", etc. could be kept to the virtual chase threads. And all those who are unable to physically chase a setup (like those of us far from the setup in question) could continue to hone their skills and ward off SDS. I like the idea, especially if it could be set up with a minimum of overhead for the forum moderators.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Even if you can't chase you can still participate in the forecast and now threads. Why should we split discussion on a current event into two separate areas? In a forecast thread you can say, "I would target here, because..." even if you aren't chasing. Later on you could say something like. "Based on an initial target of here, I would relocate to here because..."

 

[Bob Hartig]

Even if you can't chase you can still participate in the forecast and now threads. Why should we split discussion on a current event into two separate areas? In a forecast thread you can say, "I would target here, because..." even if you aren't chasing. Later on you could say something like. "Based on an initial target of here, I would relocate to here because..."

One of the virtues of the real-time chase idea is, it opens up the playing field to newer chasers whose comments might not fit the stricter criteria of the Forecast and Now discussions. It creates a kind of "break-in" environment for trying one's hand at chase forecasting without violating protocol, and for offering simple ideas without feeling dumb.

I felt really nervous when I first began to toss out my own attempts at forecasting on ST, and that was only last year. Learning this stuff ain't easy, and to really "get it" takes the integration of theory with actual field experience. I know how it can feel for those just dipping their toes in the water because my own abilities are still pretty modest. So I think the real-time chase concept is a cool one, if for no other reason than that it can provide a safe place for newbies to actually interact, rather than sitting on the sidelines watching.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Let me say here that in real chasing location and positioning is everything and should be controlled / restricted realistically in such a real time chase scenario. For instance I live in Austin, Tx not Wichita, KS so I am not in the heart of the action. It takes time to get to a particular chase target. One of the big difficulties in chasing is first deciding to make a go / no go decision. If this isn't done early enough to leave and get in the action area you can miss the whole event. Will there be rain, supercells and hail or possible tornadoes - or likely tornadoes?

So, what I'm getting at here is IMO in order to make it reasonably realistic as a virtual chase chasers should choose a position (most of the time my home) in advance of a chase in order be able to decide if it is "worth" going (ie will there be tornadoes or just rain?). Next maximum travel distance per hour should be universal for all chasers in the virtual scenario. This should include any stops / breaks required which could be figured in separately or just averaged in to a 'chaser rate' of travel per day. You also need rules about night chasing. Will it count if you are in the location to catch a tornado at night? Even though I often chase at night and sometimes catch and see tornadoes at night I generally consider it failure to miss the day time action in lieu of the nighttime action. That's mainly because it's really hard to get good video and photos at night, and a lot of the activity is simply difficult to see.

The reason I think these restrictions are required is otherwise it makes it too easy for someone to just magically appear somewhere and go to X when it is already obvious what X will be. When you chase in reality all of these things are unknowns. That's part of what makes up the glory of the action catch. Of course as most of you chasers no the other side of the equation is once you are in the area that's only half the battle. Maybe it's not even half sometimes. Actual timing and positioning on a storm and roads available at that location are very important. Every storm I've ever chased there are those that got the good stuff and those that missed it even if they were in the general location. Position and timing are critical. I don't know if that side of it can be simulated. The only way I can think of would be to compare your virtual position to the results of chasers and spotters in the field near that position. Perhaps Spotternetwork reports and SPC Storm logs will help some here.

Perhaps a good way to do this would be like Fantasy Football where you pick teams and games. You may win some and you may lose some but the big winners are the ones that got the overall best picks throughout the season resulting in the best overall score. This is a slightly different thing than simply a days virtual chase but in reality as chasers we pick our days to go based on the distance of the target, the quality of the setup, the probability of severe tornadic weather, and when we can actually leave due to work and when we have to be back which also affects distance. Also if we are in North Dakota on Wed night for a target chase it may be tough to be in Omaha Nebraska Thursday afternoon for another chase. I know this from actual experience. Once again position is critical. Lots of times our position is not ideal, but based on a second day chase strategy. Perhaps a good way to simulate this would be to specify the maximum number of chases a chaser can actually do in a virtual season. That way they have to conserve resources which is true in reality for all of us. Of course in reality the overall 'score' or success for a season isn't just based on skill. It is also based on the number of chases actually done. Some of us can only chase a few weekends a year locally, others may have a two week vacation, others yet may have chase tour jobs etc that allow them to be out and potentially everywhere the entire season. So in that sense in a Fantasy Chase season game the rate of success or hit rate would be an important statistic. In order to compare scores is why a set number of chases per season would be allowed.

It should also be obvious now that fatigue is an issue. Perhaps fatigue factor should be another daily chase rate penalty that should be included in daily positioning planning because most of us need some sleep occasionally. Of course there is always the car pool from hell....

 

[David Wolfson]

If RTV chasing gets popular it will also probably start to get a little crazy. That might be a good time to put up a "sticky thread" with some formal guidelines. But as long as it fits into the general educational mold of the Weather Discussions, I personally wouldn't want to see it become competitive. If members find pleasure in a virtual nighttime tornado intercept or virtually take roads they oughtn't be driving on a field chase or virtually drive all night, that's fine with me so long as they know the difference. I enjoy MS Flight Simulator and do some crazy things I would never, ever do were I really piloting a plane.

I'd like to see the intimidation factor kept as low as possible, compared to the rather strictly moderated FCST and NOW threads. And, honestly, I'd like to see the FCST and NOW threads mainly limited to field chasers and their appointed nowcasters. For my taste, they can sometimes get pretty cluttered with redundant and sometimes irrelevant armchair observations. I admit to having added my share of them!

 

[Danny Neal]

If RTV chasing gets popular it will also probably start to get a little crazy. That might be a good time to put up a "sticky thread" with some formal guidelines. But as long as it fits into the general educational mold of the Weather Discussions, I personally wouldn't want to see it become competitive. If members find pleasure in a virtual nighttime tornado intercept or virtually take roads they oughtn't be driving on a field chase or virtually drive all night, that's fine with me so long as they know the difference. I enjoy MS Flight Simulator and do some crazy things I would never, ever do were I really piloting a plane.

I'd like to see the intimidation factor kept as low as possible, compared to the rather strictly moderated FCST and NOW threads. And, honestly, I'd like to see the FCST and NOW threads mainly limited to field chasers and their appointed nowcasters. For my taste, they can sometimes get pretty cluttered with redundant and sometimes irrelevant armchair observations. I admit to having added my share of them!

As I said in my post before..... I believe those not chasing or not confident in forecasting should utilize the proposed thread. Keep it semi-formal and less strict, whereas someone can post their mock forecasts and ask questions about that forecast.

Leave the target area that we have now for those chasing or planning on chasing and the same with the NOW thread. The new sticky would combine FCST and NOW as you would virtually forecast, move to your target area (ACCURATELY - How many would really catch a flight in Chicago to OKC in 4 hours and catch tubes....) and then chase.

I think target area should be those chasing that day, so we can compare conditions and thoughts and visuals with people that are chasing around us. (Nothing against those NOT chasing that day) The RT virtual thread could also be a tool for Nowcasting as well....

 

[Darren Addy]

I agree with Bob Hartig's post 100%.