Rain, Rain Don't Go Away

[Greg Blumberg]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

Looks like extreme NW AR will be underwater for Easter.

Rather impressive QPF totals being put out via HPC regarding the next five days. It's good to see this as it'll help the drought west of I-35. Very large and moist air-masses are definitely in place, with large precipitable water values between 1 to 1.65 inches (from the 12 UTC soundings) south of the central TX warm front. Many 12 UTC isentropic maps indicate there's already very deep isentropic ascent taking place along and north of the front. Shouldn't be long now till central Oklahoma finally gets some rain...

Additionally, satellite derived precipitable water values show a nice, juicy Gulf airmass waiting to be utilized here:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html

Recent Oklahoma Mesonet graphic that truly represents the severity of the drought:

http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/consecutive_days_with_less_than_0.25_inches/rainfall

 

[Logan Karsten]

As someone who has some enthusiasm and interest in hydrology, this is a very interesting situation unfolding across the Mississsippi river basin. There is currently a wave of flood water coming down from near Davenport, combine that with 5-10 inches of rain down stream, and you have yourself a major hydrological event unfolding.