Powerful late-season NW System

[Ilya Neyman]

Has anyone else noticed the unseasonably strong closed system/upper trough progged to take shape along the West Coast in the days 7-9 time period? True, this is still a long-range forecast but the gfs has been somewhat anchoring to this idea for the past several runs. A system of this magnitude is truly rare for late June and the combined dynamics, wind fields, moisture and cold air aloft could make for an active wx situation from northern CA up across Oregon and Washington. Thunderstorms, including some possibly severe, would be possible in those regions. Last night's 00z run even brought precip. as far south as the southern San Joaquin Valley of central California!!

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

I mentioned this on another list and its interesting that the ensembles has been consistent with this the last few runs. What I'll be watching for is to see what ramifications this has on the northern plains for the 28-30 Jun time frame. As of now, I'll be keeping an eye on things and see what comes of it. I mentioned I was done chasing for the season, but with at least 10 tornadoes under my belt for the year (6 alone for 3/28).. I can't seem to get enough.

So, I'll be entertaining a chase up that way and I may be interested in bringing someone along to share expenses. I'll be in my Honda Civic..
35mi./gal and hopefully a laptop that works so we can access wifi.

I'll post again in a couple days to see if my budget will allow this or if I'll succumb to what alot of chasers end up doing these days and running up the credit card bill... would it be worth it??? Stay tuned!

 

[Ilya Neyman]

With this type of system, the majority of the digging will occur offshore, allowing a ridge to poke up in between troughs, with another trough toward the NE. Right now, it seems that if any energy is translated eastward it will be in the form of nearly zonal flow up across the northern tier and into Canada. The Pacific trough looks to phase out as an expanding summer high builds over the Intermountain West, perhaps signaling the start to the North American Monsoon sometime in early July.