Pattern Shift?

[Gabe Garfield]

Well, it looks the GFS has finally become consistent in developing a trough in the west. The ECWMF has had this solution for a while now, and like other events this year, it has done better.

At any rate, the GFS no longer advertises a strong cold front for this weekend. As a result, the "high octane" air will stay just south of the OK/TX border through the beginning of next week and will be patiently awaiting the formation of a lee cyclone to draw it northward. It appears that Wednesday will probably be the first day in a series of possible events next week.

The beautiful thing (per the 18z GFS) is that after Tuesday, the plains will be in persistent SW flow aloft...exactly what we want to see this time of year. I'm becoming increasingly confident that next week will hold some decent/good opportunities to do some real chasing.

Here's hoping that the trend will continue!

Gabe

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

I admit -- I was afraid to open this thread. I thought it might be some kind of cruel joke. But, alas, it's true -- pan the GFS out to 200+ hours and things are looking like one would hope they would. Hurray! We Nebraskan chasers are really hoping June makes up for May. Though May's been fun, in its own way.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Sitting here in Joplin, Missouri in front of totally booked hotels, checking data on WIFI. That's Memorial Day weekend for you. So looks like tonight is another rest area campout with a truck stop shower in the morning, then a stop at Tulsa, then Wakita before heading north into Kansas for a *gasp* chase on Saturday.

A wave of relief and excitement when I saw the consensus on the upcoming pattern. Let's hope everyone has a safe and successful start to a (hopefully) great 2 weeks of chasing starting tomorrow! See you all out there.

 

[Amos Magliocco]

It looks like our pattern change is underway. Let the second half begin!

 

[Aric Cylkowski]

As long as it doesn't put a death ridge over Michigan, I'm happy.

 

[Jon Miller]

It's a little far out but HPC surface maps show promising setups for the southern plains starting on Thurs thru the weekend :

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9khwbg.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9lhwbg.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mhwbg.gif

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Resurrect this thread...

The morning-updated AFD from OUN is one of the most strongly-worded AFDs regarding severe potential that I think I've seen for quite some time. The noon HWO is also very chaser-friendly. I'm certainly not complaining, though the mention of a possible tropical system in the Gulf scares me greatly, given that we've had systems ruined before by the northerly flow on the west-side of a tropical system scouring the good moisture.

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOUN/0506071537.fxus64.html

 

[Mickey Ptak]

Yep that was very strongly worded. You don't get that very often this far out. I have been looking at Saturday and Sunday for possable chases and that wording just reinforces my hopes.

Mick

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Wow - that is definitely enough to make a chaser stop and take notice ... thanks for posting the link - this year it looks like someone has just bumped our calendar a bit and June is now what used to be May.