November 2 Remember?

I am sure some of us in the Midwest got a little excited when we heard of possible tornadoes in early November. It was sad to hear about the tornado in the Evansville, IN area. More proof that the warning systems today still need improvement. I also hope tonight 11/8/05 will not be a repeat. The new storm system that is expected to develop this evening over the upper midwest looks to be just as potent. Daylight savings time has beat us chasers to the punch, but I know that isn't enough to keep the restless down from an already boring year. It should be interesting tonight and again with another storm system on Saturday. Will this be another November to remember like the one in 2002? We shall find out soon enough. :roll:
 
I am sure some of us in the Midwest got a little excited when we heard of possible tornadoes in early November. It was sad to hear about the tornado in the Evansville, IN area. More proof that the warning systems today still need improvement. I also hope tonight 11/8/05 will not be a repeat. The new storm system that is expected to develop this evening over the upper midwest looks to be just as potent. Daylight savings time has beat us chasers to the punch, but I know that isn't enough to keep the restless down from an already boring year. It should be interesting tonight and again with another storm system on Saturday. Will this be another November to remember like the one in 2002? We shall find out soon enough. :roll:

Looks like things will be a little further north this time, so hopefully I can get in on this action tonight/tomorrow morning here in MI - though I do hope that any tornadoes remain away from any populated areas (well, LESS populated areas - seems everything around here is populated now).
 
More proof that the warning systems today still need improvement.

I didnt see any issue with the warning system in Indiana. The NWS had warnings issued well ahead of strike. The only issue is people not being prepared by not having a NOAA radio. if everybody in the path had a NOAA radio I think the death toll would have been reduced to maybe a few people who wouldnt abanden their trailor which is the worst place for a tornado. These people took their lives in their own hands by not having NOAA radios and they paid the price. Cant expect the government to come bang on your door to warn you. You have to accept some responsibility for your own life.
 
Strongly agreed with Jay... There was a tornado warning for quite some time before the tornado actually struck, and it's up to the people to heed the warning. That is why everybody should check the weather every day (just like the whole world dug themselves into with stupid "terror levels") and if severe weather is even in the forecast, go to bed with the "alert" on your Wxradio.

On any note, this November should indeed be something to remember in terms of weather. 11-5 was nothing short of a severe weather outbreak... Today should have a decent shot at supercells, and our next chance already comes again this weekend with a shortwave trough pushing into the central plains.
 
"The only issue is people not being prepared by not having a NOAA radio."

According to reports from that area, the NWS office did not send the 1040Hz tone out ahead of the SAME header, so those with older radios did not get the alert.

- Rob
 
At least a lot of people in southern Wisconsin are a lot more aware of severe weather now...a guy at Stoughton Radio Shack said there has been a definite upswing in wx radio sales since 8/18. Not sure if the warm front will get far enough north for surface based storms in that area, but it is possible and SPC does have it in the 5% zone.
 
"The only issue is people not being prepared by not having a NOAA radio."

According to reports from that area, the NWS office did not send the 1040Hz tone out ahead of the SAME header, so those with older radios did not get the alert.

- Rob

According to what reports? Links appreciated.
 
MKX is still downplaying the tornado threat in their forecast area.

LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 100 KT JET STREAK WILL INTERSECT LLJ TOWARD LATE EVENING OVER SRN WI AND AID OVERALL LIFT AS WELL AS CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AROUND 60 KT. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND WEB BULB ZERO HTS AROUND 9 KFT...LARGE HAIL IS A GOOD PROBABILITY. A 2-3 KFT INVERSION WILL LIMIT TORNADO AND WIND THREAT.

However, as Nick G. mentioned in Map Room, kinematics would certainly be supportive of long-track strong tornadoes if sustained, surface based storms do develop. Imagine a similar event to the Stoughton tornado, only at midnight, moving at 60-70 mph. Not pretty.

FWIW (not much), SPC probs are the same as they were on 8/18. 5% tornado, 25% hail, 15% wind.
 
I see MKE always downplaying every severe weather threat. If you look at LSE it's always more dramatic and detailed. I think that the forcasters in LSE gets into the forecast line of work more than MKE's. Just an overall observation. Anyhow I think tonight will be one of the more interesting systems I've seen in a long time. The Dynamics are off the hook with this one!
:wink:
 
"November 2 Remember"?

Well, it's certainly shaping up that way with Saturday's tornado outbreak in Iowa and the high-end slight risk for today/moderate risk for tomorrow.

Once again, the entire gamut of significant weather is possible for the central part of the nation from severe weather to snow to high synoptic winds.

FWIW, there have been two days with significant tornadoes so far this month, but tomorrow is the first SPC moderate risk. We'll see what happens...
 
Re: "November 2 Remember"?

Well, it's certainly shaping up that way with Saturday's tornado outbreak in Iowa and the high-end slight risk for today/moderate risk for tomorrow.

Once again, the entire gamut of significant weather is possible for the central part of the nation from severe weather to snow to high synoptic winds.

FWIW, there have been two days with significant tornadoes so far this month, but tomorrow is the first SPC moderate risk. We'll see what happens...

Yeah, this NOV has been the most active NOV I can remember... For that matter, this fall in general has been pretty active in terms of severe thunderstorms. I will write up a more-detailed forecast in the Maproom in a few hours... But current thoughts is tomorrow could top any event so far this Fall (and could possibley be one of the most significant events in 2005).
 
It certainly has been very active... We typically get a really deep November Gale type storm every other November, we are now on our 4th one this month alone! Factor in the severe weather outbreaks, and top it off with tomorrows potential event... It feels better than spring! :D
 
I remember back in the spring some people were speculating that the relatively sucky spring (that was before June :D ) invited comparisons to 2002 which had a very active fall season. Not so far off after all. Of course, 2002 didn't have a record hurricane season or a record tornado outbreak in Wisconsin.
 
By the time this November is done with, I will be de-sensitized to the wind... So the next time a severe thunderstorm with 70-80MPH blows over, it will be "no big deal"... :lol:

Next thing ya know, I'll be standing out in 100-120MPH downbursts just to get my fix... :shock: :lol:
 
I guess it will be to remeber. A high risk almost made me blind this morning. We'll see if it plays out. A pretty good snowstorm is developing out of this one too. Should be fun to watch since I won't be able to chase it. Good Luck MI!
:wink:
 
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