Nicole?

[Zack Hargrove]

So it is all up to the forcaster who happens to be on duty that day? Call me unrealistic but I think it should be a cut and dry process. Either it is a tropical system or it is not, end of story. I do not believe this is done on purpose, I do believe however the process used to name storms is flawed especially with all the technology we have now.

The discussions and forecast may be up to the forecaster on duty (its a little more in depth than that... in many cases the official forecast goes through more than one forecaster), but here are two facts:

-A center of low pressure for Nicole was detected and just because you couldn't see it on satellite, doesn't mean it wasn't there. The hurricane center meteorologists use many more tools than your internet explorer satellite loop and use more real time data than you could even comprehend. A center of circulation is based on much more than what things "look" like. Wind vectors and pressure gradients are just a couple of examples of variables that are much more than what you have even thought about.

-In addition to the verified center of low pressure, the forecasters had real time re-con data that verified sustained winds in excess of 34 knots. This was clearly a tropical storm for at least a short time. I don't see how you can say this was not cut and dry. Everything was there.

Now, while I don't work at the NHC, I am fairly familiar with many of the forecasters there, and they are mostly all top notch. To think that there are weird conspiracies to verify predictions is just purely laughable.

As to your comment "it is a tropical system or it is not, end of story"... that is not the end of the story. Storm systems transition to other types of systems all the time. Its a very natural process for a tropical system to morph into an extra tropical mid latitude cyclone. In fact, it happens to virtually all major tropical cyclones eventually one way or another. This is how heat is transfered to the colder reaches of the globe, a never ending cycle. The fact that Nicole changed so quick is not really that unusual considering the environment and the dynamics surrounding her at the time.

 

[jdrenken]

As a supermoderator on the Accuweather.com forums, it makes me upset when people come in and start their god complex on how such and such a government branch messed up on a forecast. Whether it be the SPC or NHC.

The explanations provided by Boris, Zach, and Josh are spot on and I applaud y'all for stating the obvious. There is never a cut and dry situation when it comes to weather. One little unexpected variable could change the outcome.

 

[Dennis Dennison]

Just curious-did anyone follow the low pressure system that was Nicole or Mathew as they went up the east coast and then backtracked into Canada/Arctic area--I am wondering in the Landcane of today 10/26-10-was either one of these remnants that circulated BACK across Canada/Arctic circle and then back out to the pacific and across ?