Nicole?

[Chance Metz]

I don't like the term dissapates the NHC is using here. The strom is still going n after all with winds of 40 mph. The wind field is why they are not calling this strom tropical anymore. Maybe they should have not even named this strom in the frist place ebcuase it seems to me that Nicole was never organzied anyways and the NHC is backpedeling here. Maybe the goverment had them downgrade it becuase it was scaring people. If it wa just a tropical rainstrom then they should have called it one in the first place.

 

[Rebekah LaBar]

I don't like the term dissapates the NHC is using here. The strom is still going n after all with winds of 40 mph. The wind field is why they are not calling this strom tropical anymore. Maybe they should have not even named this strom in the frist place ebcuase it seems to me that Nicole was never organzied anyways and the NHC is backpedeling here. Maybe the goverment had them downgrade it becuase it was scaring people. If it wa just a tropical rainstrom then they should have called it one in the first place.

Chance,

Advisories will no longer be issued on Nicole because the NHC can't find a low pressure center, not because the winds have decreased.

It doesn't matter if the winds in the vicinity of Nicole's remnants are still 40 mph; if there's no low, there's no cyclone.

It's true that Nicole was never well-defined to begin with, but I would not say that the NHC is backpedaling. Nicole briefly reached tropical storm status before falling apart.

Saying that the "government" might have had the NHC downgrade the storm "because it was scaring people" is absurd. The NHC never said this would become anything close to a major hurricane, so I don't know why anyone would be scared.

Besides, the forecasters at the NHC are the ones who decide when to upgrade and downgrade storms, based on formal criteria and observations. It may not be an exact science, but I highly doubt there is any sort of conspiracy going on, as you suggest.

PS: Check your spelling before posting, please. E.g., the word's "storm", not "strom"

 

[Chance Metz]

Chance,

Advisories will no longer be issued on Nicole because the NHC can't find a low pressure center, not because the winds have decreased.

It doesn't matter if the winds in the vicinity of Nicole's remnants are still 40 mph; if there's no low, there's no cyclone.

It's true that Nicole was never well-defined to begin with, but I would not say that the NHC is backpedaling. Nicole briefly reached tropical storm status before falling apart.

Saying that the "government" might have had the NHC downgrade the storm "because it was scaring people" is absurd. The NHC never said this would become anything close to a major hurricane, so I don't know why anyone would be scared.

Besides, the forecasters at the NHC are the ones who decide when to upgrade and downgrade storms, based on formal criteria and observations. It may not be an exact science, but I highly doubt there is any sort of conspiracy going on, as you suggest.

PS: Check your spelling before posting, please. E.g., the word's "storm", not "strom"

Yeah I know why they downgraded it but imagine a hurricane with no well defined area of low presuure with winds of 150 mph. Because it has no center of low pressure it would not be a hurricane right? The point I am trying to make is the storm looks no different now then when it was a tropical storm just a few hours ago. I just find it odd that it was even named and then just as quickly they cancelled all advisories on Nicole.

 

[Chris Allington]

Yeah I know why they downgraded it but imagine a hurricane with no well defined area of low presuure with winds of 150 mph. Because it has no center of low pressure it would not be a hurricane right? The point I am trying to make is the storm looks no different now then when it was a tropical storm just a few hours ago. I just find it odd that it was even named and then just as quickly they cancelled all advisories on Nicole.

You would also know that it would probably be very hard to generate the convection and pressure gradient needed to produce 150mph surface winds without a defined low pressure center... and a pretty deep one at that.

 

[Justin Wiley]

It sure seems like there have been quite a few borderline tropical systems this year. You think the NHC is making sure they reach their predictions/forecasts?

 

[Dennis Dennison]

In fact Nicole is not the place I was watching-the post stated that it was rolling off Africa-right now it is the area to the NE of Venezuela that is where I have been following. I see a disturbance near Cuba boiling up but that is not the area I have been watching

added at 1250PM Az time
1. A large area of disturbed weather, associated with two tropical waves, is centered about 600 miles east of the Windward Islands. Showers and thunderstorms in this area are have become slightly better organized, and upper-level winds are forecast to be marginally favorable for development as the system moves west- northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. There is a medium chance, 30 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

TS Nicole weakened southeast of Miami as it interacted with a surface / upper trough.

Not much except for this little funnel that spawned up west of Fort Lauderdale, Florida late in the afternoon on September 28.

 

[Chance Metz]

I still say Nicole either should never have been named or it should still be a tropical strom. I believe the NHC meesed up.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

It sure seems like there have been quite a few borderline tropical systems this year. You think the NHC is making sure they reach their predictions/forecasts?

No. This accusation is made every year and it's bogus.

Classifying cyclones is not a cut-and-dried process like everyone wants it to be-- there are all kinds of weird, in-between systems that require a judgment call one way or the other. I should point out that every season-- including 2005-- has its share of borderline systems that get named. I should also point out that there have been a couple of other borderline systems this year that the NHC chose not to classify, much to the chagrin of many online weather nerds.

It sometimes seems that the NHC can't win: whether they do or don't classify a borderline system, someone will accuse them of having ulterior motives.

 

[Ben Kossow]

No. This accusation is made every year and it's bogus.

Classifying cyclones is not a cut-and-dried process like everyone wants it to be-- there are all kinds of weird, in-between systems that require a judgment call one way or the other. I should point out that every season-- including 2005-- has its share of borderline systems that get named. I should also point out that there have been a couple of other borderline systems this year that the NHC chose not to classify, much to the chagrin of many online weather nerds.

It sometimes seems that the NHC can't win: whether they do or don't classify a borderline system, someone will accuse them of having ulterior motives.

Agreed. Despite this being a so-called "hard science," tropical storm classification still have very much of an artistic component to it. The NHC does the best they can with the information they have.

I guess we'll have to wait until the post-season postmortem for more information, but I'm not going to waste my time wondering about whether it was a tropical storm or not.

 

[Chance Metz]

So it is all up to the forcaster who happens to be on duty that day? Call me unrealistic but I think it should be a cut and dry process. Either it is a tropical system or it is not, end of story. I do not believe this is done on purpose, I do believe however the process used to name storms is flawed especially with all the technology we have now.

 

[Justin Wiley]

No. This accusation is made every year and it's bogus.

Classifying cyclones is not a cut-and-dried process like everyone wants it to be-- there are all kinds of weird, in-between systems that require a judgment call one way or the other. I should point out that every season-- including 2005-- has its share of borderline systems that get named. I should also point out that there have been a couple of other borderline systems this year that the NHC chose not to classify, much to the chagrin of many online weather nerds.

It sometimes seems that the NHC can't win: whether they do or don't classify a borderline system, someone will accuse them of having ulterior motives.

Do you work for the NHC? Do you know for a fact that they don't have ulterior motives or not?

I was being half-serious with my emoticon anyways. You're right. It isn't an exact science, which is one of the reasons tropical weather doesn't appeal to me as much as other areas. I realize it's a tough job.

Do you remember any specific instances, by any chance, of tropical systems that weren't classified that should have been? I don't remember any. If anything, it's the opposite that seems to occur.

 

[Boris Konon]

No. This accusation is made every year and it's bogus.

Classifying cyclones is not a cut-and-dried process like everyone wants it to be-- there are all kinds of weird, in-between systems that require a judgment call one way or the other. I should point out that every season-- including 2005-- has its share of borderline systems that get named. I should also point out that there have been a couple of other borderline systems this year that the NHC chose not to classify, much to the chagrin of many online weather nerds.

It sometimes seems that the NHC can't win: whether they do or don't classify a borderline system, someone will accuse them of having ulterior motives.

I agree completely w/ the above. To elaborate further:

TD16 (Nicole) was a system that was warm core, no baroclinic influences near the center of a closed circulation (broad,
but still *closed*...that is key), decent convection (although unorganized), and at least 25 kt (35 kt) sustained winds...
what else would you call it? I agree it was more like a monsoonal depression, but why argue about exact nomenclature
in this particular case when it mostly fit the definition of a TC (keeping in mind there are no exact boundaries when
dealing w/ weather) and the sensible impact was (or effectively like) a TC. And I do not think it would haven been worth
it to try to explain to the general public that was only a monsoonal depression...that just would have caused confusion
(again, in this case...it is not like we were dealing w/ some hybrid when it comes in to question, "is it more tropical than
extratropical or vice versa?").

True, Nicole was on the fence, but I think TPC made the correct call. We have seen a number of tropical systems over the
last 10-15 years that appeared more questionable in their designations/classifications. But the important thing to keep in
mind is that the atmosphere produces a very broad range of phenomena that overlap in so many ways and doesn't care one
bit about human-imposed classifications...it does what it does.

A case where it was even tougher was pre-Hermine in the Gulf of Mexico in Sep 1998:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/dis/NAL0898.001
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gibbs/image/GOE-8/IR/1998-09-17-21
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gibbs/image/GOE-8/WV/1998-09-17-21

One another note:
For pre-Nicole, the 29/12z advisory had it 996 mb and still a TD...that is the lowest pressure for a TD in the ATL for a system
still in the tropics I believe. We were dealing w/ a lower than normal environmental pressure field around the system, so the
gradient was lacking, hence the lower winds than we would normally see.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/sfc/namfntsfc2010092912.gif

 

[Justin Wiley]

Look at that area just rolling off Sierra Leone--that WILL form into a Hurricane, and will hit the USA.

I'm just not seeing it. This was supposed to happen this year right?

 

[Zack Hargrove]

Yeah I know why they downgraded it but imagine a hurricane with no well defined area of low presuure with winds of 150 mph. Because it has no center of low pressure it would not be a hurricane right? The point I am trying to make is the storm looks no different now then when it was a tropical storm just a few hours ago. I just find it odd that it was even named and then just as quickly they cancelled all advisories on Nicole.

Is this actually a serious statement Chance? It would be impossible to have a broad storm that produces 150 mph winds with no well defined center area of low pressure. For the love of all that is good please start doing some research. I mean this in the most positive way possible.