Jeff Hawkins
EF3
Thanks for the "plug" for Tim's work (I've bought them myself), however, there's got to be some basic online stuff available too (NOT as good as Tim's stuff of course) that noobs can link to to at least get a start with.
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Thanks for the "plug" for Tim's work (I've bought them myself), however, there's got to be some basic online stuff available too (NOT as good as Tim's stuff of course) that noobs can link to to at least get a start with.
Danny Neal
EF5
Rob H
EF5
I'm guessing multiple OFBs to work with, and I would either park myself in Sayre, OK or just East of Childress, TX on 287. I like the area west of Hays, KS for the upslope play, but the bulge and the OFBs are too good to ignore. Missing pressure data in the OK panhandle, so I'm not sure if there's a surface low there or not but it seems like there should be a weaker one.
After I drew it I started thinking I shouldn't have even put weak warm fronts on it. My best guess is that there's another low up in the Dakotas and that's where the proper warm front is, and the rest is just WAA with some resistance from the outflow. Oh well, I'll learn the right way when the date is exposed
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John Farley
Supporter
Tornadoes possible in light yellow area, best likelihood in darker yellow area. My target: Woodward, OK.
Additional thought after I drew the map - there could be a cold core play in southwest NE or nearby. But I still think Woodward is the best bet, assuming my analysis is somewhere close to reality.Last edited by a moderator:David Wolfson
EF5
My hand analysis would pretty much duplicate many of the ones posted (with one addition). so I'm begging off on that unless this severely violates the rules. The squall line from St. Joe south and westward through southeast KS is notable to me and in most of the analyses. What's mostly missing is the stationary/warm front extending eastward from the Julesburg low through southern NE and the IA-MO border. I'd deduce that this reflects mid-level baroclinicity and hazard that the squall line reflects a mid-level max along this zone nosing across the KS border into northwest MO. The best surface "juice" is south of the front in MO.
Andrea hints that this is a difficult case, so my attention quickly strayed from the more obvious Panhandle targets. I sense this is a katafrontal situation where the mid-level flow has mixed/blown out the usual suspects further west and south. I am putting my circle/triangle at the MO-IA border along I-35 between Bethany and Lemoni. FWIW.
One thing that I think is really cool about this so far is how different the subjective surface analyses are. I've seen a number of different representations of the main warm front and tons of different OFBs. I'd put mine stretching W-E across about the KS-NE border.
I'd love to see at least one upper air chart because it would determine whether I want to chase near the sfc low in the SW NE/NW KS/NE CO area or down in the TX PH.Zach Young
I'm surprised no one has placed a big red L closer to Pueblo, CO... PUB's got the lowest altimeter reading on the whole map.John Mullen
This a great idea. I used to love researching the interactive case studies online but I can't seem to find them again. It's been a while!
I'm probably off a bit on this since the systems in the Mid-West are set up rather differently compared to the ones out here (in the Southeast). It's a bit of a shot in the dark but I think I might be somewhere in the ballpark with it. Either way, I'm right along I-35 so I can move north or south if need be.
Oh and if you guys are looking for a "painter" to draw out the boundaries and whatnot, I use "Front Painter". Super simple and a breeze to use. I think it's 2-3mb IIRC.
http://www.brothersoft.com/front-painter-185740.htmlAttachments
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Andrea Griffa
EF5
I noticed the same thing, Jeff! Now we need someone whe tells us the right version
As for the last request tomorrow I post you an upper air map.
Andrea Griffa
EF5
Thank you John, very nice stuff! Do you know something similar also for Mac?John Mullen
Not a problem, sir. My pleasure!
I'm actually using Ubuntu 10.04 at the moment and the program installs/runs flawlessly under Wine. You might be able to get Wine working on your Mac and just run it from there. I've had a few issues with JPEG images not loading correctly but GIFs work fine. It's not hard at all to convert from one to the other, so it's really not a problem.
http://davidbaumgold.com/tutorials/wine-mac/
Hopefully this site can help ya out!
James Gustina
SupporterWell, I flat out stink at doing surface analysis with these kinds of charts by hand but here's my attempt:
The warm front is draped along the KS/OK state line with an MCS/disorganized thunderstorm complex probably going on in Kansas. The surface winds are backed nicely along the dryline up through the Panhandles. The triple point is right off to the north in SE Colorado which allows me to bail northward if I need to, to get onto better storms that shoot up closer to the triple point.
I'm probably off here by a lot, but it doesn't hurt to try right?Last edited by a moderator:
Dean Baron
SupporterI'm a little late on this but finally got some time to go thru and make my interpretation. Orange is the dryline and the black circle is my target (too tired to look up actual cities). Appears to be a bulge in the dryline with good, strong, southeasterly surface winds south of the bulge. Since we dont have any UAA, I'll play the dryline. I'm willing to bet capping was an issue with whatever day this was along the dryline. Targetting the area I circled because of the factors above, dont want to be any further north because of the veering surface winds north of the bulge.
Andrea Griffa
EF5
Even if this is not the usual game we do every fall, I attach the 850 map, as many of you did request.
David Wolfson
EF5
Thanks, Andrea! I must ask... What is the time of the 850 analysis?Similar threads
