New game to defeat SDS

[Andrea Griffa]

Hi guys and girls

I want to introduce you a new game in order to give you a support for the SDS (supercell deprivation syndrome). This is kind of alternative to the usual cases we do every year.

-First of all, attach a surface analysis map.

- Second, you guys will have to draw on the map every low-pressures, boundaries and fronts, and give a comment about the synoptic situation (position of cold front,warm,dryline fronts and whatever you want): don't be afraid of being wrong. Every one will have the possibility to draw his interpretation.

- Third, draw the zone where you rate probable the developing of tornadoes (I suggest circles or triangles): in addition the name of the cities where you think that a tornado could form is welcome.

I don't give you the shear and cape analysis as I'm a fan of the old school chasing.

Obviously you will have to choose tornado cases.

I'll start with this one.
Personally this is one of the most interesting and hard cases I did deal with.

The time of this map is 21.43Z.

 

[rdale]

I'm all about "old school" chasing, and this seems like an interesting game you've proposed, but it's not very possible without some upper-level maps.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm all about "old school" chasing, and this seems like an interesting game you've proposed, but it's not very possible without some upper-level maps.

Let's try, it's my suggestion. It's not so impossible.
As last resort you guys will have only one choice between 850-500 and 300mb.

 

[Tom Dulong]

Thanks...I will play this game...


Primary area: Northeastern Texas Panhandle

Best low level southeast flow (most likely best hodographs), combined with northwest push of 60+ sfc dews into high plains, ahead of dry line
bulge. Classic triple point target area. Towns with highest tornado threat = Dumas, Pampa, Shamrock, Allison

Secondary area: Southeastern Colorado

 

[Chip Redmond]

Just taking a quick gander at the setup in the few moments of free time, I'll be the first to give it a shot.

Deepening low in southwest Nebraska with a trailing cold front into east central New Mexico will push eastward. A dryline exists into western OK panhandle and into TX that is pushing east as well. An ongoing MCS along the warm front moving east along the warmfront is creating a very strong outflow boundary through OK. The best area of convergence will be in southeast OK along the TX border. The strongest potential is dependant on the push of the dryline in the next few hours. The strong outflow boundary's interaction with the dryline should develop an ideal region for tornadoes, especially in the eastern part of the hatched region as the gradient along the boundary is much greater. The atmosphere behind the boundary likely won't have time to recover since it is already 21z but the rich southerly flow south of the boundary along with temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s should be more than ideal.

I would pick a target for tornadoes around Blair, OK (terrain aside).

Just a gander....

-Chip

(sorry for the terrible graphics, i was working with what I had quickly)

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Thanks...I will play this game...


Primary area: Northeastern Texas Panhandle

Best low level southeast flow (most likely best hodographs), combined with northwest push of 60+ sfc dews into high plains, ahead of dry line
bulge. Classic triple point target area. Towns with highest tornado threat = Dumas, Pampa, Shamrock, Allison

Secondary area: Southeastern Colorado

You're welcome, Tom!
Just for explaining better: you will have only one choice to score! The main goal will be to draw lows and boundaries and draw with a circle where do you think the tornado will touch down.

It's obvious you can only write one city as tornado target (as in the reality you can't be in many places at the same time).

If just you rate impossible to solve this case, you'll request only one upper air map.

 

[Tom Dulong]

You're welcome, Tom!
Just for explaining better: you will have only one choice to score! The main goal will be to draw lows and boundaries and draw with a circle where do you think the tornado will touch down.

It's obvious you can only write one city as tornado target (as in the reality you can't be in many places at the same time).

If just you rate impossible to solve this case, you'll request only one upper air map.

I'm a really old school chaser. I don't even have a web page to post a graphic to link to I did print out the surface map and drew in all the standard features. My one city for a tornado target: Pampa, TX

 

[ahaberlie]

At first I really liked SE OK because of its (probably) ideal hodographs but a few things were troublesome.

The LCLs in this region would be pretty high, with a 95/75 in most areas. This might contribute to capping and later cap erosion and when it interacts with the ongoing MCS in NW and C OK, some interesting things could happen.

However, it seems as though most ideal shear (is this cheating to assume this?) in a negatively tilted low pressure system occurs closer to the low pressure than SE OK and/or on the axis of the low, near the apparent warm front.

What does that leave? The focus would mainly be on the outflow boundary where convergence and ideal low level flow would be (I am seeing some crazy wind reports like out of the northeast.. crazy rotational shear)

With 850 mb winds generally vectored "towards" the west (relative to surface wind direction) in these situations, one would expect storm motion to be NNE to NE. When you have an outflow boundary that lies parallel to this vector, storms can organize and not die out like they would if they reach the less than ideal airmass on the other side of the boundary. A perfect balance of surface convergence to get them jump-started and ideal low level inflow parameters near the boundary.

The trick is to balance the crapvection area (low lcls) to the capped areas.. but not too capped. My decision was ultimately central Oklahoma, although in retrospect it may be to far north and west. Oh well

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm a really old school chaser. I don't even have a web page to post a graphic to link to I did print out the surface map and drew in all the standard features. My one city for a tornado target: Pampa, TX

Sorry Tom, didn't know that; at any rate, no problem it is good the same!

 

[Jesse Risley]

I would sure like to take a gander at the 500 mb data, but if I had to choose, I would probably be sitting in Hollis, OK monitoring visible satellite data and enjoying an Irish whiskey.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I'll be the first to admit...I suck at hand analysis, but this is a good experience for me.

 

[Danny Neal]

Without having time to draw up anything specific, I think I like the I 40 corridor in N TX Panhandle.... My city would be Jericho (if you want to call it a city lol)

 

[Jeff Hawkins]

For those of us who are noobs at reading charts, do you have a link or two for primers on reading charts we could go learn from, then come back here to join the game? That would help a lot.

 

[Jeremy Perez]

So, here is my novice stab at it. Among other things, I need a lot of work figuring out how boundaries will advance over time. Outflow boundary, dryline bulge and convergence lead me to Hollis, OK.

 

[rdale]

For those of us who are noobs at reading charts, do you have a link or two for primers on reading charts we could go learn from, then come back here to join the game? That would help a lot.

Tim's books are the BEST for intro work...

http://weathergraphics.com/