New Chase Case #1

[Matt Sellers]

Kearney, NE as an 18z "staging area." I would expect storm development to my west through southwest; US183 at Elm Creek offers a good north option if necessary. If the warm front doesn't move, then the storm could form right over my head.

 

[Mike Ridgeway]

I'll probably be heading toward Manhatten, KS. I think the dryline will become more pronounced across western Kansas as the day progresses and I like the upper level winds, especially at 300mb. I'll be curious to see where some of the jet streaks are located later in the day. I'm ok with the moisture (looks good to me) coming from the south. That air has got to rise in north central Kansas! And it should rotate. Although I have been wrong before, unfortunately.

 

[Andrew Revering]

Its tough to make a decision on the given data. The best guess is 'Nebraska'. We're looking at 12z data as far as I can tell, so with the SW flow we've got to move things downstream quite a bit... I'd guess Eastern Nebraska... thats the most precise I can get at this point.

 

[Zach Chappell]

I would be near Lincoln Kansas

 

[Dennis Dennison]

I will be sitting in El Reno, OK.......

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I would head to Quinter,Ks and see the update of the models: we still could have a good 500mb flow (about 40 kts). Anyway I keep an eye on SD.

 

[Tim Segraves]

Russell, KS was my first thought, possibly shooting south towards Stafford county if cells start popping to the south.

 

[Brian Stertz]

I would be positioned in Kingman KS and wait for making my later adjustment for the evening show. Things look quiet until early evening. Crickets and meadowlarks. It looks like a weak shortwave moves out of the C/S Rockies and moves into the warm sector. The dryline looks pretty diffuse at 12z, but should begin to sharpen by later in the afternoon. Warm front is enticing, but looks like there could be some capping subsidence by afternoon that should keep things more on the elevated side of things should anything go there.

 

[Verne Carlson]

I like the divergent flow aloft over central Kansas, I'll start the day at my house in Russell, KS and wait for further data.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

I would probably start out somewhere near Grand Island, Nebraska as there appears to be an outflow boundary positioned roughly WSW-ENE along Interstate 80. Mid and upper level temperatures seem strong enough to hold off convective development until later on in the day, while a modest shortwave trough at 850/700 looks to pass through the area in the afternoon. My only concern is being too far south for the really screaming 500/300 mb winds, but I have seen events do well with worse.

 

[Sam Kennedy]

Here is the 18z Radar and Visual Satellite:

Make your final chase decisions before the 0000z update!

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

I don't like that stuff in far north IA, referring back to the 12Z surface I think you'd be the Ty-D-Bowl man chasing in a circle.

I do notice two streaks of clouds from GID-SUX and York, NE-OMA. Again, referring to the 12Z the better dews were in SW IA, but that might mean HP grunge and 70/64 at HSI isn't that bad.

I'm heading to Wahoo, NE.

 

[David Wolfson]

I guess we've been naughty, so no surface obs for us!

Well, from what my poor eyes can pick out, the front is still up by Kearney/Hasings with a hint of a triple-point emerging near there. Some towers may be forming just southeast of me in Phillipsburg consistent with where storms would tend to initiate relative to the above and move somewhat north of east. With the northern side of a minor streak visible near La Junta looking to propagate at 50 kts. or so in my general direction I don't want to be too far east when it arrives(?) in early evening.

So I am packing up to watch and wait a little northeast -- at Red Cloud, NE.

 

[Chris Allington]

Because of the early convection in N IA, I'm heading back SW twoards Waverly, NE and maybe just north of there on HWY 6. There are alot of road options in the are but with the Platte River, you can run into some occasional hills and trees.

 

[Dean Baron]

I'll stick with Grand Island, NE ready to head east.