Myanmar Cyclone

[B Ozanne]

Does anybody know about this storm? I remember seeing something in the Bay of Bengal last week. I didn't think much of it and I always thought those storms went into India or Bangladesh.

How strong were the winds?

If there was an information vacuum during Katrina, imagine what its like in Burma. Not only is it a developing country, the media is totally controlled by the government.

 

[Jason Harris]

Here's sort of a wide range estimated from an article:

"Electricity supplies and telecommunications in Yangon have been cut since late Friday night as the storm bore down from the Bay of Bengal, packing winds of 190-240 kilometres (120-150 miles) per hour."

Some other articles mention 120 to 130 with higher gusts.

Some damage description too.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hEtGhaICkriPhkacleFVUOsIsG8Q


some pics here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...05/04/AR2008050400451.html?hpid=moreheadlines

 

[B Ozanne]

I think I heard 120mph in a few other places as well.

CNN now reporting 4,000 dead and 3,000 missing.

 

[Dann Cianca]

I just watched an archived loop at work. Here's the visible loop from the day:

http://smg.photobucket.com/albums/v190/leporinis/?action=view&current=myanmar.flv

The storm looked utterly unimpressive on IR; better on vis. However, it did make it to cat 4 with 115kts. The river deltas near Yangon certainly saw the surge quadrant for an extended period of time, though.

 

[Jason Harris]

Reports up to 13, 000 dead now. At least 10,000. Apparently quite storm surge.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/serv...05.wmyanmarnew0505/BNStory/International/home

 

[Jason Harris]

This cyclone has been absolutely devastating to the lives of people--now, they're reporting as high as 50, 000.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article3879492.ece

"Most apparently died in the 12ft storm surge wave that accompanied the cyclone, it was reported."

 

[Jason Harris]

Nice satellite pic there Rich showing the fierce beauty of the storm structure despite the tragedy.

What's the main factor on all the deaths? The huge population at sea-level elevation, the lack of 2nd story and higher homes, or the fact a lot of those homes resemble tents? The death toll is now estimated as possibly exceeding 100,000.

 

[B Ozanne]

Storm surge must be the biggest factor. There is a huge population living virtually at sea-level on the river delta. Even if they lived in houses like ours it would still be a total wipeout.

Add to that there was no warning by the government or any sort of storm education for the population.

Some of those before/after satellite photos of the flooded delta are interesting. It looks very much like the Miss. delta after Katrina.

If you thought FEMA was bad, here's an eye opener that shows you how lucky we actually are.

 

[J Kinkaid]

100,000 and counting...Why do they not want our help ?

 

[B Ozanne]

100,000 and counting...Why do they not want our help ?

The country is run by a military dictatorship, and they're not known for being friendly.

I'm sure the exact reasons are fairly complicated, but they don't involve the best interests of the citizens.

Does anybody know the history of this area being hit by cyclones? I think I read they were hit sometime in the early 1900's.

 

[Jason Harris]

Some estimates are now that total deaths may end up around 500,000 when disease and famine kicks in. Did the government even inform the people there that a cyclone was coming? Was there any attempt at an evacuation?

--
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1143691.ece

 

[B Ozanne]

The Indian government was on top of this storm. They gave Burma a 48 hour forecast with track and intensity. I'm guessing the military didn't do anything. If the region hadn't been hit with a cyclone in 100 years its safe to assume they also let their guard down.

The simplest reason they will not accept help is that once these foreign agencies enter the country the military fears it could quickly lose control of their power. The people would also be emboldened to rise up with all the foreigners watching.

My guess is that an extreme event like this will lead to the fall of the military regime. Afterall, many people have nothing to lose now and no army can defend against an entire population.

 

[Jason Harris]

Just a quick search on google of cyclones that hit Burma (previous name for Myanmar) reveals a hit in 1936 and more recently in 2007.

1.
Reveal 36 Killed in Burma Cyclone; 20,000 Homeless
Chicago Daily Tribune (1872-1963) - Chicago, Ill.
Date: May 3, 1936

2. Narinjara News website, Dhaka - May 15, 2007

Burma: Cyclone sweeps Arakan coast, strong winds damage "many homes"
A cyclone hit the Arakan coast yesterday, damaging many homes throughout Arakan State, according to a local report.The cyclone started moving towards the central part of Arakan, including Kyauk Pru and Manaung Townships at noon yesterday, with winds up to 60 miles per hour.Later, the storm hit Akyab, the capital of Arakan State, as well as Rathidaung Pauktaw, and Maungdaw, with wind speeds increasing up to 80 miles per hour in the area.


So not storms with the same punch but still . . . .India has been hit so many times by massive storms, seems like that should be warning enough and if the India government provided that notice this time, no excuses. Quite despicable. No doubt it still would have been a disaster with all those people in those low areas but a lot of people could have been moved in 48 hours too.
--
Here is a chronology of some major cyclones in Asia since 1960:

Oct. 30, 1960 - BANGLADESH - About 10,000 people are killed after a cyclone packing winds of 210 km per hour (131 mph) hits Bangladesh at night.

May 9, 1961 - BANGLADESH - About 12,500 people are killed in a cyclone with top wind speed of 161 kph (101 mph).

May 28, 1963 - BANGLADESH - Severe cyclone hits Chittagong coast in the night, destroying about 1 million homes, and killing more than 11,500 people.

Nov. 12, 1970 - BANGLADESH - The country's deadliest cyclone destroys Chittagong and dozens of coastal villages, killing around 500,000 people.

Nov. 19, 1977 - INDIA - More than 10,000 people die when a cyclone hits India's southeast Andhra coast. The storm disrupts life for 5.4 million people in 830 villages, and damages 1.4 million hectares (3.5 million acres) of cropland.

May 24, 1985 - BANGLADESH - About 11,000 people killed in cyclone that hit Chittagong, Cox's Bazar and coastal islands.

April 29, 1991 - BANGLADESH - Around 143,000 people are killed after cyclone pummels the southern coast with a 15-foot tidal surge.

Oct. 29, 1999 - INDIA - A "super-cyclone" slams into northeast state of Orissa. At least 9,885 are killed.

Nov. 15, 2007 - BANGLADESH - Cyclone Sidr strikes Bangladesh, killing around 3,500 people.

from:
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/FACTBOX-Chronology+of+major+Asian+cyclones-a01611011933

 

[MClarkson]

Not to defend the dictatorship or anything, but Burma does not have the infrastructure to educate or warn those people, much less move a million+. I dont see any way that the deathtoll(directly from the storm) could have been reduced signficantly, given the level of development there.


Of course, refusing or redirecting aid is inexusable...

 

[Dann Cianca]

Unbelievable ...


If the picture above disappears, check out http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html and click on Indian Ocean.