My "Forecasting Technique"

[Sam Kennedy]

Yeh I've checked them out, but the lessons are quite complicated. I've watched the first chapter of convective storms 5 times and still can't get 100% on the test :S

 

[mikegeukes]

4) Why do you use 700mb to see if the cap will break, and how can you tell if it will?

Weather Prediction Site:
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/409/

A good source is Jon Davies site:
Using 700mb temperatures as an estimation of the "cap" and to limit tornado potential
http://www.jondavies.net/700mbTcap/700mbTcap.htm

Mike
Tornado Stats for West Michigan Tornadoes
http://westmichigantornadoes.blogspot.com

 

[Aaron Wesson]

exhaust is what is needed to keep the updrafts clear and what will help tilt the storm. This will allow the storm to strengthen even more and the mass of the updraft to start piling up on the RFD.

You also want to look at Dry level intrusion (dry air in the mid-levels) this only helps intensify the updraft.

 

[Sam Kennedy]

I do look for dry air in the mid levels, I thought it would help downdrafts but I didn't really read into it that much. Is the mid level around 500mb?

 

[mikegeukes]

I usually use the 700mb maps to look for dry-air intrusions, then look at other levels.

850mb is around 5000 feet, 700mb level is around 10,000 feet, 500mb level around 18000 feet, 250mb is around 36,000 feet.

Sam, you also be interested in Hand Drawing Analysis & Forecasting Tips
http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=3849&highlight=hand+analysis

Mike