Minimalist Chase Forecasting: Avoiding Analysis Paralysis and Separating the Signal from the Noise

[JamesCaruso]

I've learned that information overload is a real thing, and have taken measures to prevent paralysis by analysis.

Inspired by the above @Drew Terril post in another thread, and at least one other similar reference I saw in another post recently, I thought this would make a good topic.

With all of the available data, it is too easy to get caught up in analysis paralysis, Although I take chase vacations, I often try to get remote work done on my trips so that I can stay out longer. I find myself obsessing over the forecast for 2 to 4 hours sometimes, with multiple checks as new data and model runs come out. This is stressful when trying to also fit in some work time and still get out of the hotel by the 11 or 12 check-out time. I enjoy forecast analysis for its own sake and am not looking to shortchange it, but there are times the information overload becomes overwhelming. As I begin second-guessing myself, it becomes more anxiety-producing than enjoyable. I remember some days deferring a decision on a relatively close-by target area, only to end up behind the action. Dealing with differing model solutions is a particular challenge for me.

Please use this thread to-
-share your own experience with analysis paralysis
how (or if) you have conquered it
-what your “shorthand” forecasting process is
-how long on average you spend forecasting an event (I’m sure this differs if you are forecasting one event from days out, versus chasing multiple consecutive days when you really only have enough time to focus on Days 1 and 2.)
-I am particularly interested in strategies for reconciling competing model solutions (particularly when the HRRR reflectivity or helicity track output conflicts with your well-thought-out forecast)…
-Using composite parameters as shorthand vs consideration of competing individual parameters in different locations
-is there a point at which you refuse to look at data in the field, for fear that it will keep you from relying on your senses?
-how do you avoid confirmation bias (for example, subconsciously biasing toward a target that is closer, has better roads/terrain, or even just knowing your favorite restaurant is in the area, despite there being better parameters elsewhere)
-how do you avoid anchoring bias (failing to properly consider new information after becoming anchored to an earlier forecast, or being prejudiced by an SPC outlook or meso discussion, or another chaser’s forecast or target area) (note - I personally try to avoid this by *not* looking at any of that until after I make my own forecast, but then if it contradicts my forecast I am back into analysis paralysis!)

Lots of different directions this topic can go, so I hope everyone contributes to the discussion so we can all learn and improve!

 

[Todd Lemery]

At risk of being simplistic, my twin brother and I separately pick out our target areas ( whether we are both going or not). We then argue back and forth about who’s right and why, eventually coming to some sort of an agreement. Fairly often we both picked the same target.
Sometimes I push for what I think is a good “secondary” target that will save a bunch of driving and he just wants to target wherever he thinks the best odds are. Being crabby about a long drive usually crops up when I’m expecting a big drive back in the opposite direction the next day. I’m also biased in pushing for the dry line whenever possible.
Dealing with a cap that may or may not break is where I really get the sweaty palms. I get paralyzed at times deciding if I want to risk seeing nothing or maybe targeting something like a triple point if available.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Chasing solo brings with it a lot of the issues James covered. I often don't have time to do the proper sit-down forecast that I should, particularly if I ended the previous chase very late (many times from shooting lightning) or if have a long drive to the target. Some of those days I'm lucky to get 20 minutes' look at the setup. In the cases where I need a shortcut or I'm just feeling lazy, the SPC mesoanalysis page has been a pretty solid staple.

On the "classic" days in the Plains, the old-school satellite-and-surface-obs are usually enough to paint the picture. CAMs can definitely lead you astray on those days. The most glaring case I know of of that was the DDC day, when the HRRR kept a monster supercell/helicity track in Colorado on every run, and only little disorganized-looking squibbles down in Kansas. CAMs are also hodgepodge or misleading on many of the more subtle forcing days where you have a large area of low-to-moderate potential. Satellite/surface obs again can save the day. The two Bennington days ('13 and '16) were like that, models were of no use and were just noise/distractions from what satellite was showing clearly by midday.

Usually when I'm on the road to the target, my browser tabs are on:

1.) COD visible satellite loop with CAPE and surface ob overlays selected
2.) SPC mesoanalysis page on either the SBCAPE or the 0-3km CAPE/sfc vorticity plot
3.) COD radar loop in the target area

I'm rarely looking at models after noon. If I still need them at that point, my day's not going very well and usually ends up not well too.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

This is the part where I consider myself a yahoo chaser because I don't do thorough forecasting and only look at a couple of parameters. But here's the process:

1. Will there be storms? Check out Simulated Reflectivity. No storms firing (or firing after dark)? Check subsequent runs. Initiation occurs? Go to Step 2.

2. Will they possibly produce tornadoes? Check Helicity, EHI. No? Might stay home. Yes? Go to Step 3.

3. Pull a couple of hodographs to see how big and looping they are. No? Not a deal breaker. Yes? Awesome. Go to Step 4.

4. Check CAPE and Dewpoints for style of storm and chase it may be (and photoworthy-ness). Go to Step 5.

5. Pick biggest storm that's most isolated in Simulated Reflectivity. That's probably my target.

As I mentioned in the other thread, I've missed a few tornadoes this way. But I've scored some of the biggest as well and it doesn't require a masters degree in meteorology to make a decision. No time to think that much when you gotta drive to get there.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I started out chasing during the caveman days, so data was almost non-existent. It was the era of "ultimate minimalist" chasing!

There was a show called "AM Weather" on PBS that was designed for pilots. It helped, but a lot of hotels in chase regions did not offer PBS on TV. The only other option was visiting a local NWS office. We had one shot at upper air data in the AM, so we relied heavily on surface data.

Now days, about 75% of my chase target decisions are based on surface data as it changes through out the day. I also monitor satellite images, SPC outlooks, the SPC mesoanalysis page and mesoscale discussions. I might look at CAMs, but they can be misleading. I completely avoid making final decisions based social media hype and sorcering forecasts. In my opinion, following social media forecasts are the no. 1 fail for chasers. Having spent so many years chasing w/o data, I think my visual skills at watching sky conditions also helps.

 

[Drew Terril]

As I mentioned in the other thread that you're alluding to, James, I rely primarily on surface obs and satellite imagery. The morning of a chase, I very rarely even glance at CAMs. While mobile data was available when I started chasing, it was not cheap and wasn't anything that I could afford to run, either as a college student or when I was on Active Duty. I also mentioned using APRS to query weather stations for surface data. If I wasn't somewhere that I could pop in somewhere for wifi (which was pretty often), I could plot out a surface map in a half hour or so by querying said stations, assuming I was close enough to a digipeater to hit it. It was I think 2012 before I had any kind of mobile data, so I got pretty proficient at doing without.

Warren nailed it RE social media. While I will have discussions with friends on the subject, the majority of the time, I have my target already picked out and it takes a pretty drastic change for me to come off of that. Of the times that I second guessed myself and bailed on my original target, I am struggling to think of a time where that actually paid off for me.

 

[John Farley]

I guess on the morning of, I use CAMs more than some of you. But never take any one as gospel. Rather, I look to see if they are consistent. If so, and if models show favorable parameters in the same area, go for it. If they are not consistent, are they sort of in two camps about where strong isolated storms will occur, or are they all over the place? If the former, I choose one of the two areas based on considerations such as where the model parameters are better, where the two areas are relative to my location, chase terrain, etc. Or maybe if the two areas are close enough, position myself where I can get to either. But they have to be close, or you will end up in the middle with nothing. If the CAMs are all over the place, move on to other considerations. Besides CAMS and models, on the morning of I always look at NWS forecast discussions in my area(s) of interest. Like others, once I am in the field I rely on my eyes, radar, SPC mesoscale analysis page, and SPC mesoscale discussions.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

I completely avoid making final decisions based social media hype and sorcering forecasts. In my opinion, following social media forecasts are the no. 1 fail for chasers.

Excellent point. For someone like myself who's not a professional meteorologist, soliciting the opinions of those "more experienced" (whether directly or simply by perusing what's posted) on social media is tempting. In a recent PM conversation on here, I cited "Discord hype" as one of the influencing factors in my decision to dump southwest Nebraska for west-central Kansas on May 26, 2021 (no offense to those who regularly participate in the Discord targeting discussions, but I've found them to often be vulnerable to groupthink when a particular area starts to look good on some model runs).

Warren nailed it RE social media. While I will have discussions with friends on the subject, the majority of the time, I have my target already picked out and it takes a pretty drastic change for me to come off of that. Of the times that I second guessed myself and bailed on my original target, I am struggling to think of a time where that actually paid off for me.

Bingo. The above mentioned day as well as Pilger 2014. Both days, sticking to my preplanned target would have at least put me within striking distance of the storm of the day. Almost did it on March 31 last year as well but stuck with my gut feeling and the basic thought "it's the left exit region nosing into the warm sector just ahead of the triple point, if it doesn't go ham nothing will."

 

[Sean Ramsey]

-how do you avoid confirmation bias (for example, subconsciously biasing toward a target that is closer, has better roads/terrain, or even just knowing your favorite restaurant is in the area, despite there being better parameters elsewhere)

This is a great question and as I get older I run into more and more, as recently as yesterday's chase in western Oklahoma.

I actually embrace this and let it influence my chasing. Yesterday's setup gave me three choices for targets. One was in NW Oklahoma with beautiful terrain, one in central western Oklahoma which I know like the back of my hand because I grew up there (also great terrain for chasing) and one along the Red River.

The Red River target actually looked better as a target. Better dewpoints, more isolated supercells, fired a bit later than the northern storms and quite possibly had better parameters as far as being photogenic. But, the Red River is harder to chase and as storms matured it appeared to approach I-35 which I am not a fan of (especially east of there), and I've been to that region of TX/OK more times than I can count lately and I get tired of being in the same places over and over. So, after looking at everything I chose western Oklahoma and it was a pretty decent chase although it didn't produce.

The scenery a target offers, the amount of population I have to contend with, the number of larger cities, if I've never been to a place or been to a place too much has a huge impact on where I chase, even if parameters are better elsewhere. These days, seeing and photographing the same storm as 8 gazillion other people doesn't interest me. I'm looking for an experience that is more focused on what I want or like out of a storm/area and not so focused on seeing "the" tornado of the day, although if it all comes together I won't complain.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Equipment overload. There was a time, right after the advent of laptops and mobile technology, that my chase group crammed every bit of technology we could find into our vehicles. Mini TV's, satellite radar, front-mounted laptops, ham radios, scanners, radar jammers , frequency counters, tablets, etc. Buy the end of the 1990's, our driver compartments looked like the space shuttle flight deck! We would spend more time distracted by playing with our toys than actually focusing on data. It was not real apparent back then, but our target success rate dropped dramatically.

Now days, I've reduced the electronics to an iPad, ham radio and a cell phone. I sometimes use an XM satellite radar unit as a back-up and a scanner for EMS communications. One thing I learned from chasing and being a pilot..... when the poop hits the fan, totally focus on driving, the map and the radar!

 

[Drew Terril]

Now days, I've reduced the electronics to an iPad, ham radio and a cell phone. I sometimes use an XM satellite radar unit as a back-up and a scanner for EMS communications. One thing I learned from chasing and being a pilot..... when the poop hits the fan, totally focus on driving, the map and the radar!

To Warren's point, I've arranged things in my chase vehicle to maximize efficiency and adjusting things by touch, while retaining decent capability. I do run a laptop with GRL3 up. I've found the larger screen helps me process information more effectively at a glance than I would be able to with a tablet, or especially just using my phone. While my setup looks complicated, it's actually a lot easier to work under a time crunch than slimming down comms wise.

Comms wise, I also run a scanner just to monitor area public safety, especially in localities that tend to deploy their VFD as spotters. In my case though, instead of running a regular ham radio, I repurposed a pair of commercial radios for ham. One is on VHF, the other on UHF. One of my long running complaints about purpose built ham radios is the lack of zones to organize frequencies. Granted, this probably stems from my time in the military, but I do like to have all my freqs preprogrammed so I can just flip to the appropriate one and call in whatever I need to call in. With my two commercial radios (Kenwood TK-7180 and Motorola XPR 4550), I was able to organize all my frequencies my CWA, and they're all labeled by county, with the exception of the larger cities. One glance at GRL3 to see what county I'm in (or close to if the one I'm in doesn't have a repeater), a couple pushes of a button to select the frequency, and I'm good to go. I've kept the same setup for long enough now that I can change zone or channel by touch. Prior to that, I ran another radio that, once I had more than a few dozen freqs saved, it took too much concentration to find the right one.

I do keep a VFO capable radio with me, but I generally just keep it on simplex while I run APRS on the B band. Some net controllers do monitor APRS, so letting them know that I have that up has made it easy on them to note my precise location. Some would also call direct for me over the net as I repositioned to ask if I had anything more to add once they'd seen I moved.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

Way over-forecasted 4/22/2010 and ended up missing out on the tornadoes. Luckily I learned pretty early to just roll with it. I will echo some of the other sentiments here - Over reliance on social media is a huge one. Now that I don't have it, I consider it a blessing. I also have always been pretty opposed to using CAMs. When they hit its great, but Dan's example of Dodge City is one of many days that people following the CAMs failed bigly.

As far as forecasting goes, everyone should go over the Rich Thompson forecast methodology that he went over in the tornado forecasting class a few years ago. I rarely use models the day of except maybe a glance at the RAP and NAM as well as a HRRR glance on days I have a bit of time. More time is spent drawing a surface map and looking at obs and satellite on chase day. I don't know how some of y'all got so much time to socialize on chase days, but I'm typically busy. I love using the VAD hodograph tool from Twisterdata, vis sat & water vapor on AWIPS2 or cod website. Observed soundings are also king leading up to an event. I could tell the setup yesterday would be extremely moisture starved the other night after looking at the Corpus and Brownsville soundings. Moisture on OUN/FWD was also razor thin.

Side note: I don't know how you young whippersnappers that walk on my lawn can chase with just an ipad and phone nowadays. Maybe I am not enlightened, but how do you get the data you need on those devices? I've thought of adding a tablet so I can use it for maps, but trying to flip between apps seems like a nightmare. Have I just become gramps at this point by keeping my computer?

 

[Jamie H]

Don't want to derail too much, but wondering if people also tune in to local radio while chasing? I would assume many local TV stations still dualcast on radio (I've certainly seen it on older archive footage in OK), so that would also provide helpful updates while on the road?

 

[JamesCaruso]

Equipment overload. There was a time, right after the advent of laptops and mobile technology, that my chase group crammed every bit of technology we could find into our vehicles. Mini TV's, satellite radar, front-mounted laptops, ham radios, scanners, radar jammers , frequency counters, tablets, etc. Buy the end of the 1990's, our driver compartments looked like the space shuttle flight deck! We would spend more time distracted by playing with our toys than actually focusing on data. It was not real apparent back then, but our target success rate dropped dramatically.

Now days, I've reduced the electronics to an iPad, ham radio and a cell phone. I sometimes use an XM satellite radar unit as a back-up and a scanner for EMS communications. One thing I learned from chasing and being a pilot..... when the poop hits the fan, totally focus on driving, the map and the radar!

Equipment is definitely another aspect to overload vs minimalist chasing. I recall back in 2000 chasing with a then-veteran that had a mini-TV with extended antennae sliding across the dashboard as we drove. Complete chaos and over-stimulation! I also recall speaking to another another veteran chaser around the same time - he was sitting in his car in a parking lot, surrounded by technology like he was in a spaceship, only to put his hand out the window and say “oh, it’s raining.”

Side note: I don't know how you young whippersnappers that walk on my lawn can chase with just an ipad and phone nowadays. Maybe I am not enlightened, but how do you get the data you need on those devices? I've thought of adding a tablet so I can use it for maps, but trying to flip between apps seems like a nightmare. Have I just become gramps at this point by keeping my computer?

I’m older than you Ben, and I’m good with just an iPad As a chase vacationer, I rent a car, so couldn’t use a laptop even if I wanted to, without an installed laptop holder. I always have a laptop with me, but even when I do my morning forecast at the hotel I often gravitate toward the iPad before the laptop. Most of what I look at for forecasting is a website, not an app, so it’s easy enough to switch among webpages by clicking open tabs In the Safari browser. I can also easily do a screenshot and mark it up if I want. It’s also easier to zoom in on a tablet (unless you have a touchscreen laptop). The only app I might switch to is RadarScope if there are ongoing storms. On the road, it does become a little more difficult to switch among RadarScope and GoogleMaps, but sometimes I’ll use my iPad for one and my iPhone for the other, or two different iPads if my chase partner has one. The only downside to forecasting on an iPad is it’s a pain to be as precise with a point and click sounding with my finger as opposed to a mouse-click. I do like being able to use a laptop with two screens, so I can look at two parameters together. I have a portable monitor (they are slim, lightweight and inexpensive) but don’t always feel like taking the time to set it up, especially since I often want to get out of my room, go down to the lobby and forecast from there while drinking coffee. I also sometimes forecast with my laptop and iPad at the same time as a way to use two screens.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Don't want to derail too much, but wondering if people also tune in to local radio while chasing? I would assume many local TV stations still dualcast on radio (I've certainly seen it on older archive footage in OK), so that would also provide helpful updates while on the road?

I’ve done that in the past, but no longer. It’s too distracting to find a station with good coverage. Unless there’s no cell signal, there’s nothing the radio can tell me that I can’t see on radar myself.