Midwest snowstorm potential 3/19/10-3/21/10

[Joel Wright]

After what will likely be the warmest week of the season for many of us, a strong storm system will ride the front edge of a major cold push by the upcoming weekend. This storm will have plenty of cold air available for heavy snow in the cold sector. The GOM will be wide open as well. The slow movement of the storm should allow for some pretty respectable precip totals, both in the cold and warm sectors.

By far the most ominous model with this storm is the GFS. It has been pretty consistent in dumping heavy snow in the cold sector. The Euro is a little more progressive, but in earlier runs it had also advertised heavy snow.

Too early for specific locations, but the high Plains of CO/WY, into NE/KS, and over through IA/WI have the best shot at heavy snow the way it appears now.

The 12z GFS absolutely crushes the northwest 2/3 of Iowa. This would be terrible news for them, as they are already experiencing flooding from the recent melt off of their massive snow pack. Definitely a storm we need to watch!

 

[Kevin Walters]

Looks like potential for a band of heavy snow, still a long way out, but interesting. Mid to late March is a favored time for this type event in Iowa. Most of the snow cover is gone in much of the state but NC and NW Iowa still have healthy totals.

 

[MatthewCarman]

From what I am hearing the snow will not stick around long if it does accumulate and the highs as of right now look to still be in the 40's every day but Saturday. The coldest day in central Iowa looks to be Saturday with a high in the upper 30's and a low in the mid 20's. Things can still change. Have to wait and see.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

OK/KS Snow Storm & Possible Blizzard conditions?

The new WRF, GEM, GFS advertise heavy snow for parts of NW-OK-KS Friday night into Saturday. The conditions are also looking more favorable for severe weather for parts of SW OK/NW TX Friday late afternoon.

The models have 900mb & 850mb winds at 6Z SAT from the N at 60+ knots. This with snow rates 2-3â€￾" per hour will create Blizzard like conditions across NW OK-SW-SC KS Friday night into Saturday. GET READY GAME ON!!

 

[Stan Rose]

Yep, im looking forward to a nice snow chase as the foothills near Tony and I should pick up a good 6-12 inches or more...

 

[Jesse Risley]

The 00Z GFS has taken a little more southerly route, depicting a surface low traveling near the I-44/I-70 corridor, from far Northeastern Oklahoma to near Terre Haute, Indiana by 00Z Sunday. This puts it more in line with the forecast trends that the NAM had been showing, with congruous thermal profiles, and both models continue to generate more than adequate QPF values in excess of 0.80," which will create a nice swath of 6+" snows somewhere in the Upper Midwest if it materializes. Both the 12Z ECMWF and the Canadian GEM have a similar placement on the progged location of the surface low, though they appear to be more progressive in moving the system east.


Since the system is still offshore, thus won’t be sampled by the upper air network for several more days, plenty of uncertainties remain with this storm system, including the ultimate path, strength, moisture availability, and most critically, the extent of any cold air intrusion from the northwest. This certainly bears watching, as someone might have a nasty surprise for the first day of Spring.

 

[Joel Wright]

A few of the models have indicated more of a non-phasing/progressive system in the last day or so. For example, the brand new NAM is one of them. Last night's operational Euro had a progressive system, and then with today's 12z it flopped back to more of a phased storm. I think we're still a few runs away from seeing anything set in stone, but the general trend is leaning more towards a less phased/weaker storm system. If the rest of the 00z models agree with the latest NAM, then my confidence in a big snowstorm for the central US will begin to decline...

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

OK/KS/MO Snow Storm?

The new 12Z WRF, GEM, GFS, UKMET, ECMWF all point to a slower and stronger system as it pull out into the plains.

The upper system and surface systems start phasing late Saturday into Sunday over SE OK- SW ARK. The surface and 850mb & 700mb, 500mb lows track across SE Ok-Western Ark. This is a perfect tract for NE OK for heavy snow.

The ETA & GFS has high snow totals for parts of OK, KS, and MO for this event.

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_84HR.gif

http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_96HR.gif

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=ktul

Snow rates 1-4" PH with thunder snow possible.

PS: Tulsa snow accumulation this winter so far 17”.

The record for a winter season was in 1924-25.6”

The all time record in a calendar year 1917 was 29.6”

Are these records in jeopardy this weekend? Wait and see what happens!

The 0Z Data update: Snow accumulations for NE OK/SW MO are way UP!!

The upper low forms over SC-OK Saturday night and pulls very slowly to the east. The 850mb & 700mb low tracks just south of OKC-MLC-FSM where it stalls for around 12HRS then finally tracks toward LIT later Sunday afternoon.

The wrap around late Saturday night with 900mb & 850mb winds over 50knts expect very close to blizzard conditions for NE OK- into SW MO where snow totals may exceed 12" with higher amount possible over SW MO.

The most important info: "THE TREND WITH ALL OF THE MODELS IS TO BRING THE HIGHER ACCUMALTING SNOW FARTHER SW DEEPER INTO OKLAHOMA ON EACH RUN"!!

 

[Andrew Francis]

I thought I was seeing things when I saw the WSW for most of OK this afternoon...???

What the random, the notes say 4-8 inches in C OK with 8+ in N OK. Also it will be 71 degrees tomorrow with stout southerly winds. The ground temp is very warm, though.


Reviewing the models it looks like E Kansas & W Missouri is the money spot, trailing into NE OK. Would be cool if those of us here in OKC area got their missing 5 inches to break the snowfall record of the season. I don't have much hopes for this one as it seems very odd, however increasingly likely as the time comes closer.

I hate how it seems Central OK is always on the thing lines of getting slammed or busted. I thought I didn't want anymore snow, but I think one last 'hurrah' to break the record would be awesome this weekend. Bring it!!!!!!!

 

[Jason Bolt]

I'm still a bit skeptical for E KS, NE OK and the Ozarks. The biggest problem I've seen in this area w/ these late winter/early spring systems is ground temps. I don't think the models and sometimes the WFOs can get an accurate handle on how ground temps will play out. We've been moderately warm here for over a week and I am having a hard time believing that with 70s tomorrow we will get enough ground cooling by Saturday night to have these accumulations as predicted. West of ICT maybe, but I don't think we will cool long enough for even KS east of ICT to see much. I wouldn't doubt a period of 2"/hr airborne rates but I don't think that will equate well to what we see on the ground.

 

[mark plate]

I'm still a bit skeptical for E KS, NE OK and the Ozarks. The biggest problem I've seen in this area w/ these late winter/early spring systems is ground temps. I don't think the models and sometimes the WFOs can get an accurate handle on how ground temps will play out. We've been moderately warm here for over a week and I am having a hard time believing that with 70s tomorrow we will get enough ground cooling by Saturday night to have these accumulations as predicted. West of ICT maybe, but I don't think we will cool long enough for even KS east of ICT to see much. I wouldn't doubt a period of 2"/hr airborne rates but I don't think that will equate well to what we see on the ground.

March 28 last year...Tulsa, Oklahoma...heavy snow fell between 9 am-3 pm and accumulated 6-10 inches on the ground. This was during the day with a high sun angle and extremely warm pre-existing ground conditions. If it snows hard enough...and it will with this system if it comes even close to what any model is projecting...the snow will have no problem accumulating. An added bonus is that much of the heaviest snow looks to fall at night...Saturday night. The biggest question right now is just where the heavy band of snow will set up. The 06Z models have shifted west so that now Tulsa or between Tulsa and OKC may be ground zero, and there may be significant amounts of sleet further east towards the Missouri/Arkansas border if the 06Z GFS/06Z NAM/00Z ECMWF verify.

 

[Brandon Lawson]

I'm definitely excited about the 06z runs, but I'm not really sure how much to trust them. The NAM unloads quite a bit of QPF over Oklahoma. Is it a trend or an outlier? I have to drive from Joplin this morning, to Sedan KS, then to Wichita, and finally, back down to Norman. I won't have a chance to see what the 12z runs boast until later. But I'd love to see OKC break their annual snowfall record. Then it's onto hour 264 of the 00z gfs and the beginning of what could finally be an active Spring pattern.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/images/nam_p36_060m.gif
Even if it doesn't verify, I love seeing the potential for so much frozen precip. falling.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

March 28 last year...Tulsa, Oklahoma...heavy snow fell between 9 am-3 pm and accumulated 6-10 inches on the ground. This was during the day with a high sun angle and extremely warm pre-existing ground conditions. If it snows hard enough...and it will with this system if it comes even close to what any model is projecting...the snow will have no problem accumulating. An added bonus is that much of the heaviest snow looks to fall at night...Saturday night. The biggest question right now is just where the heavy band of snow will set up. The 06Z models have shifted west so that now Tulsa or between Tulsa and OKC may be ground zero, and there may be significant amounts of sleet further east towards the Missouri/Arkansas border if the 06Z GFS/06Z NAM/00Z ECMWF verify.

I agree with Mark. I have heard the TV mets go on and on over the years about warm ground temps having a significant impact on snowfall accumulations, and everytime we have heavy snow the ground temp "theory" is proven wrong. One of Tulsa's greatest snowfalls in history happened on March 20 (1924?) with over a foot of snow. If we get 1-2"+ per hour snowfall rates then we will have no problems with accumulation. The one thing the high sun angle will do for us is help to melt the snow quickly once the system has departed....usually within 24-48 hours.

The 6z NAM and GFS have both gone crazy with snowfall totals across central and northeast OK. I have no doubt this is a bit overdone, but just half of these totals and Tulsa gets 8-12".

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I am just curious. I don't recall a winter where we have seen a significant long track tornado in Oklahoma in March followed by a major winter storm nearly two weeks later. Anyone else recall such a thing happening?

 

[Chris Heater]

Well since there is no true tornado chasing weather...I may drive down to "chase" this winter storm. Sounds like Oklahoma is due to get pounded. I have a friend with Mesocyclone Media who says their going to get 5 to 10" of snow and with the winds, 3 to 4' snow drifts. Does mother nature know that it's MARCH?!