Midwest snowstorm potential 3/19/10-3/21/10

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Well since there is no true tornado chasing weather...I may drive down to "chase" this winter storm. Sounds like Oklahoma is due to get pounded. I have a friend with Mesocyclone Media who says their going to get 5 to 10" of snow and with the winds, 3 to 4' snow drifts. Does mother nature know that it's MARCH?!

Its funny to hear and see all of the people around here that are confused about the potential March snowstorm and to be honest for much of the Plains the greatest snowstorms in history have occurred in March. There is plenty of moisture available compared to the winter months and we still have winter fighting spring.

Almost everyone can remember the record breaking blizzard in S KS/NW OK last year where Pratt, KS received over 30" of snow. And I can't speak for anywhere else but Kansas City received its largest snowstorm total of like 25" or something in March so its not unheard and actually happens on an annual basis. I even remember when C Kansas got 8" of snow back in mid April in 2007 and that was a week or two after the epic March 28 outbreak!

Anyway back on track the 12z NAM looks pretty interesting especially over C/E OK where they will likely get the brunt of this storm with blizzard conditions likely. I'm actually glad to see my area (southwest of KC) seeing lesser totals I'm sick of this stuff.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Heres the NAM totals, a bit overdone but I wouldnt expect its overdone by much, I could easily see a foot of snow in the OKC/TSA/ICT triangle. I think the NWS is really treading on icy ground here with only 4-8". This storm, like many others have already pointed out, has many parallels to the Xmas Eve blizzard. I really think the NWS needs to ramp up expected accumulations, maybe not to the 14"+ depicted by the NAM but somewhere in the ballpark would be nice.

Another caveat or tidbit to point out is that with the higher sun angle this go around versus the Xmas Eve blizzard, that will make for warmer cloud temperatures which will lead to wetter snowflakes, which will actually enhance totals.

EDIT: I keep forgetting ST doesnt blow up attachment images so heres the link:
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_84HR.gif

 

[Chris Carter]

I'm actually glad to see my area (southwest of KC) seeing lesser totals I'm sick of this stuff.

I'm with you there Michael. East Central Nebraska looks to get 1 - 3" of snow. Not even advisory criteria for us. More than likely we'll get 3" here in Lincoln on the grassy areas, melt it off by Sunday, and say hello to upper 50's again by Monday. I'm quite glad the heavy snow will stay in the Southern Plains, if parts of Iowa and other places of the Midwest was to get a foot of snow, I am sure it would aggravate the flooding issues in the area.

 

[Mike Umscheid]

The NAM12 matches VERY close to the ECMWF solution now. 700mb deepening from 297 dam to 287 dam (10 decameter deepening!!) over a 24 hour period from west-central OK to the Arklatex is very significant. There will be SUBSTANTIAL snow accumulations and even blizzard (or at the very least near blizzard) conditions. I will be heading to Stillwater, OK after I get off work at 4pm for this one. This could be a great event.

 

[Bill Schintler]

Winter Weather Discussion - Iowa

Light rain and snow will overspread the area from west to east today, and change to all snow by early evening as temperatures fall. Snowfall totals should be light, amounting to an inch or two, with higher amounts in the south. Travel should not become problematic, as snow should rapidly melt on the warm pavement. Below is time of arrival and total snow accumulation for today’s event for specific locations in central and eastern IA:

Cedar Rapids, IA (Eastern IA Airport):
Snow will start after 4:30 PM and accumulate to 1.7 inches by Saturday morning.

Iowa City, IA:
Snow will start after 5:00 PM and accumulate to 2.7 inches by Saturday morning.

North Linn Co., IA (Paris and Coggon):
Snow will start after 4 PM and accumulate to 1.1 inches by Saturday morning.

Marengo, IA:
Snow will start after 4:30 PM and accumulate to 2.3 inches by Saturday morning.

Union, IA:
Snow will start between 2 and 3 PM and accumulate to 0.9 inches by Saturday morning.

Discussion:
A cold front will continue to push south and east of the area as northwest winds usher in colder air. Rain and snow will overspread the area from west to east throughout the day, which will change over to all snow during the evening hours with increasing CAA and evaporational cooling. Model trends continue to indicate an increasingly progressive and weaker system, suggesting lighter snowfall totals then earlier thought. Lift will increase across the southeast third of IA between 00Z and 06Z in the right-entrance region of a 60-80kt H5 streak, with H7 omegas increasing to -5 to -7ub/s where frontogenetical forcing is maximized.

- bill s
12:50 PM CDT, 03/19/10

 

[Brandon Lawson]

The NAM12 matches VERY close to the ECMWF solution now. 700mb deepening from 297 dam to 287 dam (10 decameter deepening!!) over a 24 hour period from west-central OK to the Arklatex is very significant. There will be SUBSTANTIAL snow accumulations and even blizzard (or at the very least near blizzard) conditions. I will be heading to Stillwater, OK after I get off work at 4pm for this one. This could be a great event.

Cheers Mike! I haven't seen 8+ inches of snow in a looong time. Would love to see central Oklahoma get blasted. I missed the Christmas Eve storm in Norman.

 

[Chuck Robertson]

You know, growing up in central Oklahoma, I used to dream of what it would be like to live in the OK or TX Panhandle with all those wonderful winter storms and blizzards. Well, guess what! Now that I do live here in the TX Panhandle, all the blizzards seem to be back home in good 'ole Oklahoma!!!! What's up with that???? After all, most areas of the TX Panhandle averages almost double the annual snowfall of OKC. But that sure doesn't seem to fit what has been happening over the past several years.

Once again, it looks like the fury of this system will be well to the east of even here in the eastern TX Panhandle. In fact, I am not sure why we are even under a Winter Storm Warning right now. NWS is calling for 2-5 inches, but the latest NAM barely wants to even eek out a dusting. Wow! What a difference the distance of just a few counties makes!

I guess I need to go back to dreaming. This time dreaming of what it would be like to live back in central Oklahoma!

UPDATE: Latest runs of the NAM and GFS seem to be backing off the big time snow totals for central OK. Will this storm turn out to be considerably less than advertised, even for much of Oklahoma????

 

[Andrew Francis]

Trust me, this is a rare winter for C OK, and most of OK in general. I have been here for a long time and I can't recall a winter this good. We are definitely getting made up to this winter, from all those busted winters in the past. We get ice more often than these excellent snowstorms we have been getting this winter, it is a pleasant change.

Perhaps this means something about the upcoming severe weather season on the horizon.


Back to the data, it looks like maybe a new trend of the heaviest stuff, northward from previous. Will have to see at the night progresses.

Temperature outside right now here N of OKC, is just at 36 with rain falling. Alot of rain breaking out from central to southwest OK right now. Hoping in the long run, that us here in C. OK are not dry slotted with us counting on the wrap around dumping most of our white stuff tomorrow evening.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

Thunder Snow TX PNHDL

A heavy snow band has formed from NE of AMA to Hereford TX about 30 miles wide.

Snow rates of 2" PH both AMA & HDF are reporting heavy snow at 6Z obs.

New lighting strikes just north of AMA in the past ten minutes thunder snow is now in progress.

 

[Jay McCoy]

Right now in Amarillo we have a heavy snow band coming through and thundersnow with zero visibility and numerous wrecks. Thunder has been rumbling and shaking my house like its almost May . Winds of 35-40+. Totals expected of 3-5" but if this keps up much longer we will end up with 6"+. Have received 2-3" in the past hour with drifts of about 1ft.

Here is a link to the TxDot webcams for a live look.

http://amaits.dot.state.tx.us/AMA-ITS/default.htm

 

[Andrew Francis]

Lookin' like verification is on the way!

Temps outside are right now 32-33 degrees with light rain/snow showers, and I dunno if it is the wind, or I am hearing light rumbles of thunder. very nice convection over SW OK riding up into the < 32 air over W, C, and N OK. And that heavy band in the TX panhandle looks great!

My only concern is the system riding up north too quickly and dry slotting Central OK. Need to get more of an easterly jog going here! Cmon baby bring it!


RE-EDIT: still can't decide whether it wants to do rain or snow, back to rain now.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

OK/TX Snow

Andrew what is your location where you have changed over to snow?

The radar shows an area embedded storms from LBB-OKC-CSM-AMA-LBB moving into sub freezing air.

The leading edge of moderate to heavy snow is now approaching CDS-North to I-40

The cold air is slightly ahead of schedule per the 0Z run.

The snow line is about Ponca City-ALTUS at 2:00 am.

 

[Chuck Robertson]

Here in Miami, TX, we are currently receiving moderate to heavy snow, but so far, I have not seen any lightning or heard any thunder. I'm actually a little surprised by that. Currently I would say we have about 1 inch of accumulation, with very low visibility in blowing snow during the bigger wind gusts. I can really hear the wind roaring through the trees out there! The snowflakes have been rather sizable at times with this system.

 

[Andrew Francis]

This looks like a pretty good grasp on track of the most snowfall, comparing to what is going on out there now. Obviously the totals will not be this high, as we all know how the models exaggerate that.

And Jeff, I went outside to get some better confirmation, and it is not 100% snow yet, I was fooled from window watching.

 

[Mike Johnson]

You know, growing up in central Oklahoma, I used to dream of what it would be like to live in the OK or TX Panhandle with all those wonderful winter storms and blizzards. Well, guess what! Now that I do live here in the TX Panhandle, all the blizzards seem to be back home in good 'ole Oklahoma!!!! What's up with that???? After all, most areas of the TX Panhandle averages almost double the annual snowfall of OKC. But that sure doesn't seem to fit what has been happening over the past several years.

Once again, it looks like the fury of this system will be well to the east of even here in the eastern TX Panhandle. In fact, I am not sure why we are even under a Winter Storm Warning right now. NWS is calling for 2-5 inches, but the latest NAM barely wants to even eek out a dusting. Wow! What a difference the distance of just a few counties makes!

I guess I need to go back to dreaming. This time dreaming of what it would be like to live back in central Oklahoma!

UPDATE: Latest runs of the NAM and GFS seem to be backing off the big time snow totals for central OK. Will this storm turn out to be considerably less than advertised, even for much of Oklahoma????

Chuck, just to clarify, the warning was issued based on impact as opposed to snowfall amounts alone. Since near blizzard conditions are forecast for several hours, it was felt that a winter storm warning was warranted over just an advisory. We have received no reports from the eastern counties in the TX Panhandle so its difficult to assess the success of the warning at this point but based on Amarillo's experience, I think it was well justified.