mikegeukes
EF5
Source: US Census
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Michigan Storm Chasing Climatology
- Thread starter Adam Adkins
- Start date
Aric Cylkowski
EF2
A few notes about Michigan chasing that I've said often and never written down.
Your worst enemy in Michigan during a chase is terrain, be it hills, trees or a combination of the above. Like said previously, below I-96 is generally decent for chasing in respect to trees and hills. The Flint-Saginaw-Mount Pleasant-Lansing Quadrangle is also fairly reasonable. If your chase carries you into heavily wooded areas, you need to either bail out or exercise EXTREME caution (this is from experience, had an EF2 tornado drop behind my car while chasing north of Fenton on June 8, 2003... First chase and almost my last because I wasn't able to get a read on the storm mostly due to terrain and the next thing I'll discuss).
Your second worst enemy in Michigan is the storm you're chasing getting rain-wrapped, and this is going to happen frequently. This is going to rapidly degrade your visibility and if you are close in you are going to end up in extreme danger because you're highly unlikely to see it coming.
The most common problem, however, is setup (as discussed earlier). When a lee-side low pressure system forms as a shortwave approaches the Plains, it is in the absolutely best spot to develop a dryline as well as fantastic moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico. Once that system slides northeast to give Michigan a chance, there is no dryline, no favorable wind profile and the lakes will play havoc with your lower-level thermodynamics. Michigan really isn't the best place meteorologically to get tornadoes, but as L.B. stated: We're overdue for a violent tornado.
Another F5 to add to the list is the 1896 Ortonville-Oakwood-Thomas tornado as per Grazulis/The Tornado Project.
Your worst enemy in Michigan during a chase is terrain, be it hills, trees or a combination of the above. Like said previously, below I-96 is generally decent for chasing in respect to trees and hills. The Flint-Saginaw-Mount Pleasant-Lansing Quadrangle is also fairly reasonable. If your chase carries you into heavily wooded areas, you need to either bail out or exercise EXTREME caution (this is from experience, had an EF2 tornado drop behind my car while chasing north of Fenton on June 8, 2003... First chase and almost my last because I wasn't able to get a read on the storm mostly due to terrain and the next thing I'll discuss).
Your second worst enemy in Michigan is the storm you're chasing getting rain-wrapped, and this is going to happen frequently. This is going to rapidly degrade your visibility and if you are close in you are going to end up in extreme danger because you're highly unlikely to see it coming.
The most common problem, however, is setup (as discussed earlier). When a lee-side low pressure system forms as a shortwave approaches the Plains, it is in the absolutely best spot to develop a dryline as well as fantastic moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico. Once that system slides northeast to give Michigan a chance, there is no dryline, no favorable wind profile and the lakes will play havoc with your lower-level thermodynamics. Michigan really isn't the best place meteorologically to get tornadoes, but as L.B. stated: We're overdue for a violent tornado.
Another F5 to add to the list is the 1896 Ortonville-Oakwood-Thomas tornado as per Grazulis/The Tornado Project.
Hello, new to the site but not new to weather forums, I came across this thread just to agree with some points people made with respect to chasing/spotting in Michigan. Visually the best areas are from US-10 to I-96/M-59 and from US-127 to Lake Huron. There are a few wooded areas in that box but most of it is farmland. South of that area is either hilly or Metro Detroit. West or North of that is also too hilly or wooded. As for big tornadoes in the state, I know people tend to focus on recent history but if you go from 1950 to 1977 there were several high end tornadoes (F4/F5) compared to zero since 1977. You can never say a place is overdue for a strong tornado but you also can't ignore the past when there have been several strong tornadoes. It however takes the right type of system to create an environment conducive for large tornadoes in the state. A setup such that you have a moderately strong low in Southern or Central Wisconsin with a subsequent warm frontal boundary laid out across the state would be the most conducive. The Palm Sunday event of 1965 and the Super Outbreak of 1974 both had this setup and both had several tornadoes of at least F3 strength in the state. Another type of setup being favorable would be a strong west flow event with a low passing through the northern part of the state, 6/8/53 and 7/2/97 are both examples of this type of setup. I do look forward to this year, hopefully we can get a quick flip into a spring severe weather season in the state, other than 2012 it has been many years since we have had some good spring activity in the state.
Shawn Kellogg
Enthusiast
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2015
- Messages
- 8
Adam welcome to Michigan! As the guys have stated plenty of scenic shots are to be had .... but photogenic tornadoes are few and far between. With a short drive North you might get treated to some amazing auroras though! 
Bob Hartig
EF5
Don't know why it didn't occur to me earlier to post this link: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/grr/science/sig_tor_climo_32204.pdf
It's to a study by Janis Laurens of KGRR on southern Michigan's tornado climatology. He describes three scenarios for tornado events that are typical of our area.
It's to a study by Janis Laurens of KGRR on southern Michigan's tornado climatology. He describes three scenarios for tornado events that are typical of our area.
James Simonds
Lots of good information in here. Pretty much everything that can be said, has, so I'll keep it brief.
I live in Dexter, MI, and March 15, 2012 was definitely a surprise. That entire week we were in the 70's with mid-high 60 dews. Highly unusual for that early in the year. May 12, 2014 had several supercells fire over Washtenaw county, with a brief touch down near Pinckney.
Those are just a couple recent events, but at least it shows that supercells can and do form in Michigan. So there are opportunities.
I live in Dexter, MI, and March 15, 2012 was definitely a surprise. That entire week we were in the 70's with mid-high 60 dews. Highly unusual for that early in the year. May 12, 2014 had several supercells fire over Washtenaw county, with a brief touch down near Pinckney.
Those are just a couple recent events, but at least it shows that supercells can and do form in Michigan. So there are opportunities.
James Simonds
Great read. Thanks for posting that.
Adam Adkins
EF3
One question that has come to my mind is the extreme dew point temperatures that occur in the the upper midwest and Michigan. Look at this day for example in Pontiac, MI: http://classic.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPTK/1995/7/14/DailyHistory.html
What causes such extreme dew points around the great lakes? What would an 83 degree dew even feel like?
What causes such extreme dew points around the great lakes? What would an 83 degree dew even feel like?
Ben Holcomb
EF5
Lots of corn fields along with tons of lakes and rivers. It feels miserable.
Don't forget lots of swamps. As far as how it feels, Ben is right. It just sucks the life out of you.....
Michael Gavan
EF2
Yep! There's nothing like a ~80 degree dew point in late July to give you a case of summer time cabin fever. LOVE "the sound" at night and the fireflies we get that time of year though. Its a combination of factors, warm lakes and rivers (Surface waters will hit high 70's this time of year). Extreme transpiration from corn to our south and southwest. High pressure, and moisture "pooling" from the gulf and just getting stuck under that high.
I'll reiterate my point though about our neighbors to the south.
Just sayin'.
I'll reiterate my point though about our neighbors to the south.
Just sayin'.
Michael Gavan
EF2
Nice Shot!
I actually have a photo of Brian Williams somewhere with my video has a headline.... Found it.... http://photoblog.nbcnews.com/_news/2011/10/25/8474218-northern-lights-go-way-way-south
And here's the source....
Steve LaBelle
EF0
Welcome to Michigan Adam. It's a vacation wonderland. Don't leave without seeing the Sleeping Bear Sand Dunes or Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore. They are truly epic on a worldwide level. I've been chasing locally for about 6 years now. I've been within minutes of about 6 different tornadoes but as others have stated, we get a lot of quick spin ups and the timing is crucial. We do get a ton of bow echos and straight line wind events. A lot of my chasing takes me into Ohio/Indiana where a lot of big events do occur including this EF4 I grabbed in Henryville. Good luck. ---- Steve
Adam Adkins
EF3
Well I was in Michigan for this whole summer, and I feel that it was rather abnormal. We were constantly in the cool sector. We had only 1 thunderstorm the whole summer that produced any CGs remotely close. Not one severe warning. This seems to stick with the pattern of the trough pattern over the great lakes. Any thoughts on this past summer or the future?
Bob Hartig
EF5
Frankly, not just this year but the last couple as well have been sub-par and disappointing. We've had a handful of events, but several well-advertised systems wimped out, including a couple of cold fronts that I was really looking forward to for some decent lightning. But the failure for conditions to align is typical Michigan, and some of it simply has to do with where in the state you're at. I'll get crap down here and then hear about how farther north or east, tree limbs are down and folks got hammered. Right now is pulse storm season, and I'm watching little popcorn cells dapple the radar to my east and northeast but, of course, not here in Hastings. Take what you can get as you can get it. Sooner or later, we'll have a good year, and this one is by no means over.
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