Michigan Storm Chasing Climatology

But that of course brings me to the big question: Are summertime lightning storms and storm chasing better in southern Michigan or in Colorado?

While visibility & structure/storm quality will mostly suffer compared to Colorado you’ll likely be far better off regarding chaser convergence. A supercell on a marginal day near Limon can attract hordes of chasers while a supercell on a comparable day near Lansing will likely attract mostly locals and nearby chasers. I’ve driven the nearly 1,000 miles to Colorado to chase multiple times and hope to do so many more times in the future. I’ve never driven the 200 miles to Michigan to chase and will likely never do so in the future. Not that I have anything against Michigan, I love the state, especially the UP. It’s just not a place I’ll go out of my way to chase and I think that sentiment is probably shared by more than just a few other chasers.

Another positive is you’ll be far less prone to getting your car damaged by large hail. If I recall correctly you had a real nasty encounter with some gorilla hail in Colorado a few years back. While you can still get into some trouble with some storms in Michigan I think you’ll be far less likely to encounter the baseballs like Colorado storms can produce!
 
Michigan on the other hand has a different story. (one it shares with Wisconsin and Minnesota) In the 1800's all of the flat land was converted for farm use. However, there's a point where both wheat and corn are very difficult to grow (historically) and that's in Zone 4 or lower. That line runs right through the center of Wisconsin and Michigan. This is roughly where total 80 degree days start to number less than about 90 in a year. At that point there is less focus on farming--and as a result the land was allowed to rebound to a forest state...And then later, became state forest. Simultanously, since around 1930 or so, family farming gave way to more or less industrial farming. Homesteads became vacation properties and subdivisions...or were just left to fallow.-Michael Gavin

Very interesting Michael, does that mean that the Southern half of Wisconsin and Michigan were both historically heavily forested? If so, did the deforestation simply follow the population spread of the white man? Also, I notice that land in the upper pennisula of Michigan quickly reverts back to forest when it's no longer being farmed. Is that the same for Southern Michigan and Wisconsin?
Please bear with me, I know it's not really a storm/weather topic, but I am curious and don't want to miss the chance to learn something about something that interests me.
 
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Interesting thought about the trees and how the agriculture has influenced the weather.

Take a look at this map showing only F4/F5 tornadoes. Everywhere in the blue circle (except the hole in the middle, I don't know why that is a dead zone) should have the potential for the most damaging storms on earth - the supercell thunderstorm and violent tornadoes (and along with that wind, baseball sized hail, etc). So everywhere in this map should, when the time comes, produce the greatest results possible. So in this case, the southern half of Michigan, should be an excellent place for storm chasing, because it has a very similar density of violent tornadoes to everywhere else within the circle (except 2 or so hot spots). Therefore, MI should be equally prone to these than anywhere else, should it not?

Also it's interesting to note IN and western OH. How's the chasing out there? And I love big hail. Leaving that would be sad! But any storm that can produce a violent tornado is certainly capable of baseballs.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-a-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfp1/t31.0-8/10952933_775227459227794_8791856820095161447_o.jpg
 
One other factor is the sandier soils in Michigan compared to other states in the Midwest. More favorable for certain kinds of trees, and less so for farming.
 
Just to chime in, I remember learning that Lake Michigan acts as sort of a natural air conditioner for the land East of it which allows for the production of Grapes in the LP
 
Michigan..grew up there, now live in Colorado. Will never go back...maybe the fact that I brought shorts and flip flops to work today for the 65° temps we'll have this afternoon...in February. :)

Beautiful state though, lush and green and many lakes. I didn't start chasing til I moved to CO though, probably because MI weather isn't that interesting. It has its moments, and some killer lightning...if you can see it through the trees.
 
Interesting question....however as I'm as far from a weather expert or meteorologist as one can get, I can't answer that. It's weird..growing up in MI, I never really even noticed the weather. Once I move to CO, its right there...visible from miles away, and gorgeous. I mentioned in another thread that I actually captured a lightning bolt in Nebraska...from just east of Metro Denver.

I wish you luck in your move to MI. Its a beautiful place, and when I've been back to visit the folks in the summers, there are definitely storms, but I've had zero success in getting any really good photos, but I've also never actively chased back there. Give me high base Colorado lightning any day.

Oh yeah...you'll also be able to drink everyone there under the table...if that's your inclination (until you acclimate).
 
Interesting question....however as I'm as far from a weather expert or meteorologist as one can get, I can't answer that. It's weird..growing up in MI, I never really even noticed the weather. Once I move to CO, its right there...visible from miles away, and gorgeous. I mentioned in another thread that I actually captured a lightning bolt in Nebraska...from just east of Metro Denver.


Oh yeah...you'll also be able to drink everyone there under the table...if that's your inclination (until you acclimate).

I take offense to that. I'm not sure about the lower pennisula, but the folks here in the UP are professional drinkers. Everything is done as an excuse to pound beers. It's 7 degrees out right now and I will be heading to a bonfire soon where there will be about forty other people using the bonfire as a reason to drink beer. :-)
 
Is lightning flash density effected by forest density? Do CGs tend to happen less in areas of dense forest?
I wouldn't make too much of the forest density. The southern part of the state is a patchwork of farmland, forest, lake, and field, with the central region being quite agricultural and therefore open in a lot of places. Lots of corn, wheat, and soybeans. I don't get to the thumb area much, but what I've seen of it has been flat with plenty of muck farms. As you head farther north, the forests become extensive and chasing is impractical, though it can be done. There's an east-west line running roughly from Saginaw to Muskegon which separates the northwoods from southern hardwood forest. That's a simplified description, but you'll find it to be accurate enough. Here's a map that you may find interesting:
220px-North_Woods.gif


As for the effect of forest density on CGs, I highly doubt it makes any difference. I've seen plenty of storms spit out mass quantities of cloud-to-ground with a grin, while others have been all intra-cloud stuff. Lightning type and frequency doesn't differentiate between forest and cropland; it's about the nature of the storm, not the vegetation. A lot of times, the best opportunity for lightning photography comes after the storm, as the storm heads eastward. Kurt Hulst would be the guy to talk to about that, as he loves lightning photography.

The only impact forest density has on lightning that I'd place any stock in is the obvious, which is that trees mess with the viewing. For that matter, even July and August corn can get in the way. But it's not that big a deal. There are places in southern Michigan that you want to avoid, such as the Barry State Game Area, but the roads are good, and you're usually not far from open farmland. I definitely prefer Illinois and Indiana for their vast, flat, open expanses, but this isn't Arkansas or even Wisconsin.

It's really pretty simple. This is not supercell metropolis, but you'll usually get a crack at a few supercells each year. But if you like lightning, you'll be a happy camper. I don't know that it's any better here than anywhere else, but it's certainly not any worse, and July and August keep it coming while the western states bake.
 
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Interesting question....however as I'm as far from a weather expert or meteorologist as one can get, I can't answer that. It's weird..growing up in MI, I never really even noticed the weather. Once I move to CO, its right there...visible from miles away, and gorgeous. I mentioned in another thread that I actually captured a lightning bolt in Nebraska...from just east of Metro Denver.

Oh yeah...you'll also be able to drink everyone there under the table...if that's your inclination (until you acclimate).

I feel as though you are thinking of a different state. Im typing this from shorts brewing company and during blizzard conditions. So maybe I'm biased.
 
I concur. I lived in Western Ohio for several years and first started chasing there in 1977. Great road network, and awesome storms erupt, at least southern Ohio, starting in March. There were at least 10 thunder days each summer month. Night time lightning shows are utterly magnificent. And of course, cities like Xena Ohio have had at least two EF4 tornadoes within a decade.

I'll ditto everything Bob Hartig just said and Robert Forry just said.

Good news is, even though Michigan isn't exactly a supercell hotbed, its southern neighbors nearly are. Perhaps that's better, really. Locally we call it "hoosier alley" Illinois offers some of the best terrain in the country, and it's a paved 1x1 grid! (Shhh...don't tell anyone) Indiana and most of western Ohio are fantastic as well. Combined, the three will offer at least 3 or 4 very good chase opportunities every spring and summer, and even sometimes in the fall. (Nov 17 2013) Some years that number can be much higher. Best part is you might snag a tornado no one else or very few others will photograph. All of the best terrain and peak activity occurs within an 4-8 hour drive of the Ann Arbor area.

Definitely watch out for Derechos. We seem to get a lot of them here, some famous, and many are quite photogenic.

the_shark__s_mouth_by_lakefx-d3rd5dn.jpg



I'll warn you though. We are all a bit of a strange bunch here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6iujINpmzrk
 
FOREST AS A PERCENT OF LAND AREA:
Example: 97 percent of Keweenaw County is forested.

Forest as a percent of land area: Michigan: Upper Peninsula
NWS Marquette County Warning Area
97% Keweenaw County
94% Baraga County
92% Alger County
92% Gogebic County
89% Iron County
88% Marquette County
86% Luce County
86% Ontonagon County
82% Houghton County
79% Delta County
79% Dickinson County
78% Schoolcraft County
75% Menominee County

Forest as a percent of land area: Michigan: Upper Peninsula
NWS Gaylord County Warning Area
87% Mackinac County
74% Chippewa County

Forest as a percent of land area: Michigan: Northern Lower Peninsula
NWS Gaylord County Warning Area
86% Oscoda
85% Crawford
85% Montmorency
83% Cheboygan
78% Otsego
76% Kalkaska
76% Roscommon
74% Alcona
73% Wexford
69% Emmet
67% Iosco
67% Presque Isle
65% Benzie
64% Manistee
64% Ogemaw
62% Alpena
60% Gladwin
59% Missaukee
53% Antrim
52% Charlevoix
52% Grand Traverse
43% Leelanau
40% Arenac

Forest as a percent of land area: Michigan: Southern Lower Peninsula
NWS Detroit County Warning Area
45% Midland County
21% Livingston County
20% Lapeer County
19% Oakland County
19% St.Clair County
18% Washtenaw County
16% Saginaw County
16% Tuscola County
15% Macomb County
15% Shiawassee County
11% Genesee County
11% Huron County
11% Wayne County
10% Lenawee County
10% Monroe County
08% Sanilac County
07% Bay County

Forest as a percent of land area: Michigan: Southern Lower Peninsula
NWS Grand Rapids County Warning Area
82% Lake County
60% Clare County
58% Newaygo County
50% Mason County
52% Muskegon County
47% Oceana County
43% Osceola County
35% Mecosta County
34% Barry County
32% Montcalm County
28% Van Buren County
26% Allegan County
23% Kent County
21% Isabella County
20% Jackson County
20% Kalamazoo County
22% Ottawa County
17% Calhoun County
12% Eaton County
12% Ingham County
10% Ionia County
08% Clinton County
08% Gratiot County

Forest as a percent of land area: Michigan: Southern Lower Peninsula
NWS North Webster CountyWarning Area
19% St.Joseph County
18% Berrien County
17% Cass County
14% Branch County
12% Hillsdale

Michigan is 51% forested.

Source: US Forest Service


Definition: Forest Land (Source: US Forest Service)
Forest land.--Land at least 16.7 percent stocked by forest trees of any size, or formerly having had such tree cover, and not currently developed for nonforest use. (Note: Stocking is measured by comparing basal area and/or number of trees, by age or size and spacing with specified standards.)

The minimum area for classification of forest land is 1 acre. Roadside, streamside, and shelterbelt strips of timber must have a crown width of at least 120 feet to qualify as forest land. Unimproved roads and trails, streams, or other bodies of water or clearings in forest areas shall be classed as forest if less than 120 feet wide.

Whats interesting, for roadsides, is the width of 120 feet at least to be classify as forest land. I can tell you one thing, a lot of roads have a lot of trees along them, that do not meet this criteria, especially in southern Michigan. Also it does not mention, about trees in cities, which is probably not counted as forest land. People yards in the country, quite often have trees on them do not meet the minimum 1 acre. So when I view the percent of forest land in southern Michigan, I would say the data is actually underestimating the forest land in southern Michigan.
 
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