Michigan Storm Chasing Climatology

[Adam Adkins]

Good day, all.

I have had a very sudden change in my life and will be relocating to Michigan just for the summer at first, and then permanently at the end of the year.

Coming from Colorado, this feels like a bit of a blow, especially for scenic and outdoor related activities, but is it also a blow for storm chasing?

I have done some research on severe weather in Michigan, and it being the midwest, I should be in for some good supercells and intense thunderstorms otherwise, right?

Doing research on an area from afar can only serve so much and at the end of the day I was going to see if I could get opinions from those on this forum. Does anyone have experience or photos from chasing in the Michigan area? What do you guys think about the supercell scene there? Any thoughts to share?

I have seen that dew points can get up to 80 degrees in southeast Michigan (I'm near Ann Arbor)! That is exciting in a way because the highest we ever get in CO is around 60.

Thanks for all your thoughts and opinions. I am trying to keep an open mind about the weather prospects in Michigan! I love not only supercell storms but also basic lightning, extreme events, and blizzards.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Like Colorado, Michigan also offers great spout chasing, but of the water variety instead of land. Surrounded by the Great Lakes, the fall offers opportunities for lake shore spout spotting, lake effect thunderstorms, and of course lake effect snow later on. There are lots of gorgeous spots to shoot from too. Here's a few shots from various spots on the east shore of Lake Michigan I got in 2012.

Supercellular tornadoes are definitely part of the weather up there, but they're difficult to catch due to the tree coverage. They may be less common than other parts of the Midwest as the lakes often negatively impact severe weather setups in the spring. Ice, snow cover, and cold water temps often limit destabilization in the early months or kill existing convection. You might find yourself heading down to Indiana and Illinois and then west from there for your supercell fix.

 

[Todd Lemery]

Welcome to Michigan Adam! It's gotta be a little hard going from the mountains to the low elevation flat lands. Skip was dead on about the likelihood of having to chase South. Generally the tree cover gets worse the farther North you go in Michigan and even if you didn't have tree issues, super cells are a little hard to come by unless you're willing to throw some miles on your vehicle.
On the plus side, your opportunities are tremendous compared to somewhere like Oregon. Good luck!

 

[Adam Lucio]

A true good photogenic tornado seems really rare in Michigan. I can only think of a couple. I live in Chicago and have only chased in Michigan once without much luck. If your situation will allow for flexibility hopefully you can still make it out to the plains for their bigger days. Youre also closer to chase Illinois, which offers infrequent, yet big awards for those who do chase here. The advantage comes in the summer when the plains season ends and they bake in 100 degree heat and sunshine for 3 months straight. Here in the midwest we get the ring of fire and NW flow patterns. Day after day of intense lightning storms and MCS-derecho action to keep us satisfied. It is the main reason I choose to remain here, I still get the action in the plains, then have a whole summer filled with a different flavor. Not to mention those big fall days that happen every few years...and then of course you have the spout chasing, and lake effect snow events which can be pretty intense. There is plenty of interesting weather around here.

 

[Bob Hartig]

You'll find a lot to love about Michigan, Adam, including the weather. But supercells and tornadoes are the outlier of what our meteorology has to offer. The previous comments have said it well, but I'll add my nickel's worth. Systems that produce to the west frequently wash out by the time they arrive here, at least when it comes to tornado potential. Surface winds veer, and we wind up with a lot of unidirectional setups--i.e., cold fronts. Warm fronts are usually the event to watch for here.

You know how hard it is to get ingredients to line up properly even in the heart of tornado alley. Here that's even more true. There's usually at least one element that's missing from a tornadic setup. I may gripe about that, but in reality, given the population density in the lower part of this state, that's a good thing. Out west, mile-wide wedges often roll across the open plains with minimal impact; here, such a tornado would almost certainly have significant, if not catastrophic, results.

That said, standing on a beach or a sand dune watching a shelf cloud roll in across Lake Michigan is nothing short of sublime. September and October are waterspout season. And yes, we do get supercells and tornadoes--you just have to be patient and allow for the landscape, which varies from open to densely wooded. Roads are usually good--no sticky clay to get stuck in. But as Adam said, you'll probably find yourself dropping down into Indiana and Illinois and heading west to increase your odds. This state is just not tornado central.

I might add, Michigan is variable terrain, rich in water and woodlands, and has a lot of natural beauty. It's not as dramatic as the mountains of Colorado, but if you open yourself to new criteria, you'll like what you find.

 

[Jeff Duda]

You can peruse the severe weather climatology for Michigan (and all other areas of the CONUS) at this link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/SVRclimo/climo.php?parm=anySvr

 

[Adam Adkins]

Thanks for all the feedback! It sounds like from what you are all saying that Michigan is not the worst place in the world at all, and that is very encouraging!

From what I can tell, it looks like MI has a pretty solid Derecho scene, and from what Adam was saying, some solid summertime lightning storms. I don't know what causes some storms to be more electric than others, but I really hope that Michigan can provide some prolific CG producers over the summer. Does anyone have experience of this happening there?

I love all weather, but the supercell and tornado is the best (obviously), and from some articles I've been reading, MI seems to definitely have the capacity for F4/F5 tornadoes. The Flint tornado, Grand Rapids tornado, West Bloomfield tornado just to name a few. Are these extremely rare? I stumbled upon this video from 2012. Does this represent an extremely rare occurrence?

Finally, I've been reading very thoroughly about climate change to see how it is projected that each area would be affected, and MI seems to have the biggest change toward an increase in extreme precipitation events. Any thoughts on this?

Thank you all for your comments and opinions on everything!

 

[John Farley]

I lived in Michigan for 9 years while going to college and grad school, and the one thing I would add is that in the scenic and outdoors department, it is one of the best places. Very different than Colorado (where I live now), but still topnotch. Tough chase country due to the woods and the nature of the storms, but I will say that once while I lived there all I had to do to see a decent tornado was walk to the window when the sirens blew. Didn't have a camera, of course, and at that time fear probably exceeded awe, but they were both there.

 

[Robert Forry]

Hey Adam! Welcome to my home and native land!! LOL! I hail from the U.P. but now call southern Michigan home (Gaines Township - which is a little southwest of Flint).

Michigan is not quite the hotbed of tornadic activity like the Plains or Dixie Alley (we average a little under 20 TORs a year), but we do see them here, and we've had some of the most deadly on record (Flint's EF5 being the worst in the late 50s for loss of life up to the Joplin storm in 2011). Plus, as Skip has mentioned, the Lake Michigan shore on the west side offers up some awesome waterspout viewing opportunities in the late summer/early fall. We also see that on Lake Huron and on Saginaw Bay.

Speaking of the lakes, we get some great interaction with the easterly lake breezes off of Lake Huron/Saginaw Bay, Lake St. Clair, and Lake Erie. This gives us nice backing winds to work with in the low levels in Bay, Saginaw, Macomb, Wayne and Lenawee and Monroe counties, and as evidenced by some of last summer’s storms, Lake Huron does the same for us in Midland, Gladwin and Ogemaw counties (of course, the warm/cold front interaction is key too).

The state has a fairly decent paved N/S, E/W road network south of where it begins to get pretty wooded north of the Mount Pleasant area, and of course, we have our own version of minimal maintenance roads which local farmers take care of..

My first “chase” ever occurred here on May 21, 2001 (Fenton EF2) but we left MI shortly after that for work in Tennessee and Texas. We got back here in 2011 and scored our first TOR in our own back yard (Shiawassee County) on the Bennington Day in 2013. Feel free to contact me for help with your move; I'd more than happy to help however I can.. see ya soon and welcome!!

 

[Michael Gavan]

I'll ditto everything Bob Hartig just said and Robert Forry just said.

Good news is, even though Michigan isn't exactly a supercell hotbed, its southern neighbors nearly are. Perhaps that's better, really. Locally we call it "hoosier alley" Illinois offers some of the best terrain in the country, and it's a paved 1x1 grid! (Shhh...don't tell anyone) Indiana and most of western Ohio are fantastic as well. Combined, the three will offer at least 3 or 4 very good chase opportunities every spring and summer, and even sometimes in the fall. (Nov 17 2013) Some years that number can be much higher. Best part is you might snag a tornado no one else or very few others will photograph. All of the best terrain and peak activity occurs within an 4-8 hour drive of the Ann Arbor area.

Definitely watch out for Derechos. We seem to get a lot of them here, some famous, and many are quite photogenic.

I'll warn you though. We are all a bit of a strange bunch here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6iujINpmzrk

 

[Bob Hartig]

We definitely get some decent lightning storms here. Last year wasn't so hot, but overall, you won't be disappointed.

Violent tornadoes are extremely rare. The Flint and Allendale tornadoes are the only F5 fornadoes on record in Michigan.

This state does have its surprises. The day of the Dexter tornado was not what you'd call a prime setup. The wind profile was weak, as you can see from this VAD grab taken at the time of the tornado. An outflow boundary moving in from Ohio was the game-changer, and the results were dramatic.

Storms tend to mature inland once they've gotten out of the lake effect shadow, and the eastern side of the state (where you're moving to) seems to offer better tornadic action overall, though that's certainly not a hard, fast rule.

I saw my first tornado here in Michigan near Pewamo in August 1996. It was a great day for classic supercells with nice structure, and there were a number of tornadoes. It happens from time to time. Keep an eye out for surface lows lifting up out of central/eastern Iowa toward Wisconsin, with the warm front lifting up into Michigan.

 

[chrisbray]

I don't have much experience CHASING in Michigan, but a lot Vacationing in Michigan and it is an awesome place. With all the different great lakes etc you will not run out of great natural locations anytime soon. The southern half of the LP has a decent amount of open country/farmland with paved grid that you could theoretically chase on, though with more trees than the plains. But it is also not as bad as say, Dixie Alley. And please do make it to the Lake Michigan coast in the summer to see an astounding show when a derecho comes at you from across the Lake.

[/url]P7234328 by inflow55, on Flickr[/IMG]

 

[Ben Holcomb]

Chasing is tough in Michigan and it is a long ways away from the plains, which is why I ultimately left for Norman in 2010. With that said, Michigan is a fantastic place to live in June, July and August and pretty much unbeatable if you like lakes.

You'll get the occasional derecho and even supercells, although they are quite rare. Days like October 18, 2007 come to mind. A lot of trees to be blown over by severe wind events, which seem to be the most common.

Seems like the best supercell/severe weather days always come from a morning warm front along the MI/IN/OH border with a low out in Iowa or Southern Minnesota. At least, that's a trend I've noticed.

The shelf clouds are pretty great too

With that said, we're planning a Michigan get together (3rd or 4th annual?) on August 8th. I don't have any details other than we're hoping to have it either in Grand Rapids or Hastings and it'll be in the afternoon and evening.

 

[Robert Forry]

With that said, we're planning a Michigan get together (3rd or 4th annual?) on August 8th. I don't have any details other than we're hoping to have it either in Grand Rapids or Hastings and it'll be in the afternoon and evening.

You know, when I suspended my account on FB for a few months, along with that I believe went the invite for our gathering on the 8th of August...Ugh! I still need to find the gathering spot as I think we've outgrown the Waldorf.

 

[Bob Hartig]

The 'Dorff has got a great ballroom upstairs. Just reserve that. You could fit a small convention in it, and you'll have it all to yourselves.