Dan Cook
EF5
Looking real balmy next week.
-
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Major arctic surge next week?
- Thread starter Dan Cook
- Start date
Looking real balmy next week.
Adam Lucio
EF5
I made reference to this in the NW flow thread. *HURL* there goes lunch
That air mass has been chillin [no pun intended] over Alaska the last several days, just waiting to make its move. It looks like its going to be a slow mover too, may bring us here in Chicago multiple days of sub zero temps.
*HURL* there went breakfast.
Although I know the GFS has a tendancy to overdue cold surges, I wouldnt expect it to get as bad as its showing right now...still bears watching as its been persistent.
That air mass has been chillin [no pun intended] over Alaska the last several days, just waiting to make its move. It looks like its going to be a slow mover too, may bring us here in Chicago multiple days of sub zero temps.
*HURL* there went breakfast.
Although I know the GFS has a tendancy to overdue cold surges, I wouldnt expect it to get as bad as its showing right now...still bears watching as its been persistent.
Andrew Ryan
EF3
WOW! Even some below zero temps for NYC. Even if this close to true, it's gonna be pretty cold towards the end of the next week. Now, if we can get some moisture, maybe I can finally get a decent snowfall.
Kenny Drake
EF3
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2006
- Messages
- 227
Here in Minnesota it looks like we'll have several days later in the week of temperatures not making it into positive values (Fahrenheit). My main concern is getting my car to start Thurs morning and onward. The MSLP for the Twin Cities should approach 1050mb Thursday morning if the GFS is at all close. I've noticed that models do not handle cold air well due to the fact that they are shallow enough to where vertical grid spacing becomes problematic.
Brad Nelson
EF1
It's coming!!
Check out this morning's sounding from the Northwest Territories. This is the airmass dropping down for later this week...brutal! I noticed the 2 meter min temps off the 12Z GFS have a -40 deg F contour into North Dakota for Thursday morning. Wow, I'm glad that I'm getting out of the Twin Cities and heading to Denver late this week
Check out this morning's sounding from the Northwest Territories. This is the airmass dropping down for later this week...brutal! I noticed the 2 meter min temps off the 12Z GFS have a -40 deg F contour into North Dakota for Thursday morning. Wow, I'm glad that I'm getting out of the Twin Cities and heading to Denver late this week
Attachments
David Draun
EF5
Not looking nearly as disasterously cold for Chicago this week. I can deal with highs in the single digits. Still the Friday morning low looks nasty at -12. As long as winds aren't too strong, I think -20 wind chills will be the worst we get.
Bill Schintler
EF4
01/12/09 FCST: IA/MN
A dangerous winter storm will bring blizzard conditions and several inches of snow to portions of Minnesota and Iowa on Monday. Gusty northwest winds will follow the accumulating snow and cause drifting, while ushering in a reinforcing shot of arctic air. In eastern IA, areas of northern Linn Co, and Benton Co, received as much as 9 inches of snow from Friday through Saturday; and drifting will result in particularly poor travel conditions in those areas Monday evening. Snowfall totals for Friday’s system were poorly forecast due to the unusually localized nature of the heavy precipitation. A few nearly stationary bands of snowfall persisted over the same areas for an extended period.
Looking ahead, the active pattern will continue with storm systems affecting the area both Wednesday morning and Friday, with more cold air following each. The coldest morning will be Friday, when lows will bottom out below -20F in eastern MN and eastern IA. Following are forecasts for specific locations in Minnesota and Iowa for Monday’s event.
Twin Cities, MN:
Snow will begin at 9:30 AM Monday, and accumulate to 3.6 inches before ending by early evening.
St. Cloud, MN:
Snow will begin at 8 AM Monday, and accumulate to 3.1 inches before ending by early evening.
Duluth, MN:
Snow will begin at 8 AM Monday, and accumulate to 1.9 inches before ending by early evening.
Cedar Rapids, IA (Eastern IA Airport):
Snow will begin at 10 AM Monday, and accumulate to 3.7 inches before ending by mid evening. Winds will switch to the northwest and increase during the evening with gusts as high as 35 mph after 7 PM.
Iowa City, IA:
Snow will begin at 10 AM Monday, and accumulate to 3.2 inches before ending by mid evening. Winds will switch to the northwest and increase during the evening with gusts as high as 36 mph after 8 PM.
North Linn Co., IA (Paris and Coggon):
Snow will begin at 10 AM Monday, and accumulate to 4.3 inches before ending by mid evening. Winds will switch to the northwest and increase during the evening with gusts as high as 34 mph after 7 PM.
Marengo, IA:
Snow will begin at 9 AM Monday, and accumulate to 3.3 inches before ending by mid evening. Winds will switch to the northwest and increase during the evening with gusts as high as 36 mph after 7 PM.
Union, IA:
Snow will begin at 8 AM Monday, and accumulate to 3.5 inches before ending by early evening. Winds will switch to the northwest and increase during the evening with gusts as high as 41 mph after 6 PM.
Synopsis:
At 00Z a 160kt H3 streak was surging SWD through British Columbia and Alberta, with an attendant H5/H7 SHRTWV approaching the WRN Dakotas. At the SFC, a ridge bisected MN from SW to NE, with return flow established ahead of low pressured centered over the ND/MT/Saskatchewan border area. Looking upstream, weak and mostly elevated returns were already noted on KMVX, KFSD, KABR, KMBX, and KBIS radar sites at 03Z; and precipitation was reaching the ground along and W of US-281 in SD/ND. Moderate isentropic upglide was noted over ERN ND along 290-300K SFCs.
Discussion:
A STG clipper system will race across the upper-Midwest over the next 24 hours. Moisture is limited with the NWRLY flow regime; however, snow/liquid ratios will be unseasonably high due to the cold AMS. MDLs have now come into agreement with the SFC/H85 features and are responding to the increasingly sharp snowpack gradient ACRS ERN IA. Trends also suggest a slower progression by a few hours. A closed H85 circulation should track over DVN at 00Z with the SFC reflection about 80mi further S.
Between 18Z and 00Z, an omega bulls-eye of -7ub/S will track from NERN IA into SRN WI/NRN IL, with frontogenetic forcing concentrated in the H9/H75 layer. Recent MDL trends are increasingly bullish with QPF along the US-30/US-20 corridor in ERN IA, which makes perfect sense given an increasingly SLY track over the SRN edge of the snowpack. Snow to water ratios will range from 12:1 S of I-80 in CNTRL IA, to more then 25:1 in CNTRL and NRN MN. Following the passage of the SFC/H85 low; STG downward mixing of a 40kt H925 LLJ will result in gusty conditions especially in areas SW of a FSD to CID line.
- Bill
10:15 PM CST, 01/11/09
A dangerous winter storm will bring blizzard conditions and several inches of snow to portions of Minnesota and Iowa on Monday. Gusty northwest winds will follow the accumulating snow and cause drifting, while ushering in a reinforcing shot of arctic air. In eastern IA, areas of northern Linn Co, and Benton Co, received as much as 9 inches of snow from Friday through Saturday; and drifting will result in particularly poor travel conditions in those areas Monday evening. Snowfall totals for Friday’s system were poorly forecast due to the unusually localized nature of the heavy precipitation. A few nearly stationary bands of snowfall persisted over the same areas for an extended period.
Looking ahead, the active pattern will continue with storm systems affecting the area both Wednesday morning and Friday, with more cold air following each. The coldest morning will be Friday, when lows will bottom out below -20F in eastern MN and eastern IA. Following are forecasts for specific locations in Minnesota and Iowa for Monday’s event.
Twin Cities, MN:
Snow will begin at 9:30 AM Monday, and accumulate to 3.6 inches before ending by early evening.
St. Cloud, MN:
Snow will begin at 8 AM Monday, and accumulate to 3.1 inches before ending by early evening.
Duluth, MN:
Snow will begin at 8 AM Monday, and accumulate to 1.9 inches before ending by early evening.
Cedar Rapids, IA (Eastern IA Airport):
Snow will begin at 10 AM Monday, and accumulate to 3.7 inches before ending by mid evening. Winds will switch to the northwest and increase during the evening with gusts as high as 35 mph after 7 PM.
Iowa City, IA:
Snow will begin at 10 AM Monday, and accumulate to 3.2 inches before ending by mid evening. Winds will switch to the northwest and increase during the evening with gusts as high as 36 mph after 8 PM.
North Linn Co., IA (Paris and Coggon):
Snow will begin at 10 AM Monday, and accumulate to 4.3 inches before ending by mid evening. Winds will switch to the northwest and increase during the evening with gusts as high as 34 mph after 7 PM.
Marengo, IA:
Snow will begin at 9 AM Monday, and accumulate to 3.3 inches before ending by mid evening. Winds will switch to the northwest and increase during the evening with gusts as high as 36 mph after 7 PM.
Union, IA:
Snow will begin at 8 AM Monday, and accumulate to 3.5 inches before ending by early evening. Winds will switch to the northwest and increase during the evening with gusts as high as 41 mph after 6 PM.
Synopsis:
At 00Z a 160kt H3 streak was surging SWD through British Columbia and Alberta, with an attendant H5/H7 SHRTWV approaching the WRN Dakotas. At the SFC, a ridge bisected MN from SW to NE, with return flow established ahead of low pressured centered over the ND/MT/Saskatchewan border area. Looking upstream, weak and mostly elevated returns were already noted on KMVX, KFSD, KABR, KMBX, and KBIS radar sites at 03Z; and precipitation was reaching the ground along and W of US-281 in SD/ND. Moderate isentropic upglide was noted over ERN ND along 290-300K SFCs.
Discussion:
A STG clipper system will race across the upper-Midwest over the next 24 hours. Moisture is limited with the NWRLY flow regime; however, snow/liquid ratios will be unseasonably high due to the cold AMS. MDLs have now come into agreement with the SFC/H85 features and are responding to the increasingly sharp snowpack gradient ACRS ERN IA. Trends also suggest a slower progression by a few hours. A closed H85 circulation should track over DVN at 00Z with the SFC reflection about 80mi further S.
Between 18Z and 00Z, an omega bulls-eye of -7ub/S will track from NERN IA into SRN WI/NRN IL, with frontogenetic forcing concentrated in the H9/H75 layer. Recent MDL trends are increasingly bullish with QPF along the US-30/US-20 corridor in ERN IA, which makes perfect sense given an increasingly SLY track over the SRN edge of the snowpack. Snow to water ratios will range from 12:1 S of I-80 in CNTRL IA, to more then 25:1 in CNTRL and NRN MN. Following the passage of the SFC/H85 low; STG downward mixing of a 40kt H925 LLJ will result in gusty conditions especially in areas SW of a FSD to CID line.
- Bill
10:15 PM CST, 01/11/09
Dustin Wilcox
EF5
Doesn't take much snow to make things nasty when you have 50-60mph winds.
Just some video from when I was out messing around toady....http://www.vimeo.com/2809610
Just some video from when I was out messing around toady....http://www.vimeo.com/2809610
Bill Schintler
EF4
Another winter storm in the Upper Midwest Tuesday evening
Another moving “clipper†type storm will bring several inches of light, fluffy snow to portions of Iowa and Minnesota starting Tuesday evening. Very strong winds will once again follow this system with drifting on Wednesday morning.
Twin Cities, MN:
Snow will start at 5:40 PM Tuesday and accumulate to 3.5 inches by Wednesday morning.
St. Cloud, MN:
Snow will start at 4:40 PM Tuesday and accumulate to 3.5 inches by Wednesday morning.
Duluth, MN:
Snow will start at 11 PM Tuesday little or no accumulation by Wednesday morning.
Cedar Rapids, IA (Eastern IA Airport):
Snow will start at 8:20 PM Tuesday and accumulate to 5.3 inches by Wednesday morning.
Iowa City, IA:
Snow will start at 9:00 PM Tuesday and accumulate to 4.4 inches by Wednesday morning.
North Linn Co. (Paris and Coggon), IA:
Snow will start at 8:00 PM Tuesday and accumulate to 5.7 inches by Wednesday morning.
Marengo, IA:
Snow will start at 8:00 PM Tuesday and accumulate to 4.2 inches by Wednesday morning.
Union, IA:
Snow will start at 7:40 PM Tuesday and accumulate to 3.7 inches by Wednesday morning.
Discussion:
A STG but moisture-starved clipper system will race across the upper-Midwest over the next 24 hours. Moisture is limited with the NWRLY flow regime; however, snow/liquid ratios will be extremely high due to the cold AMS; ranging from 15:1 in CNTRL IA towards the end of the event, to nearly 40:1 in NRN MN. The GFS had been a SRN outlier over earlier MDL runs; with the NAM and SREF NLY outliers. As has been the case with the last two systems, expect a SLY trend in the storm track as MDLs become better initialized with the deep snowpack. Latest trends slow the onset by several hours. The H85 low will track SE through the Twin Cities though 12Z Wednesday with the SFC low tracking through NERN IA. WAA will begin Tuesday afternoon in advance of this system. Isentropic lift really kicks in over CNTRL MN into ERN IA by late evening with a LLJ of 50kts nosing into the area with 1-2g/kg mixing ratio AMS into 286-290K SFCs. FCST soundings show STG lift occurring in a 4-7kft deep dendritic growth zone for 6 hours suggesting a period of moderate to locally heavy snowfall. A strong pressure gradient behind the system will produce 20-30mph winds with gusts approaching 40-45 mph.
- Bill
KD0DJG
www.twistertoursusa.com
10:51 PM CST, 01/12/09
Another moving “clipper†type storm will bring several inches of light, fluffy snow to portions of Iowa and Minnesota starting Tuesday evening. Very strong winds will once again follow this system with drifting on Wednesday morning.
Twin Cities, MN:
Snow will start at 5:40 PM Tuesday and accumulate to 3.5 inches by Wednesday morning.
St. Cloud, MN:
Snow will start at 4:40 PM Tuesday and accumulate to 3.5 inches by Wednesday morning.
Duluth, MN:
Snow will start at 11 PM Tuesday little or no accumulation by Wednesday morning.
Cedar Rapids, IA (Eastern IA Airport):
Snow will start at 8:20 PM Tuesday and accumulate to 5.3 inches by Wednesday morning.
Iowa City, IA:
Snow will start at 9:00 PM Tuesday and accumulate to 4.4 inches by Wednesday morning.
North Linn Co. (Paris and Coggon), IA:
Snow will start at 8:00 PM Tuesday and accumulate to 5.7 inches by Wednesday morning.
Marengo, IA:
Snow will start at 8:00 PM Tuesday and accumulate to 4.2 inches by Wednesday morning.
Union, IA:
Snow will start at 7:40 PM Tuesday and accumulate to 3.7 inches by Wednesday morning.
Discussion:
A STG but moisture-starved clipper system will race across the upper-Midwest over the next 24 hours. Moisture is limited with the NWRLY flow regime; however, snow/liquid ratios will be extremely high due to the cold AMS; ranging from 15:1 in CNTRL IA towards the end of the event, to nearly 40:1 in NRN MN. The GFS had been a SRN outlier over earlier MDL runs; with the NAM and SREF NLY outliers. As has been the case with the last two systems, expect a SLY trend in the storm track as MDLs become better initialized with the deep snowpack. Latest trends slow the onset by several hours. The H85 low will track SE through the Twin Cities though 12Z Wednesday with the SFC low tracking through NERN IA. WAA will begin Tuesday afternoon in advance of this system. Isentropic lift really kicks in over CNTRL MN into ERN IA by late evening with a LLJ of 50kts nosing into the area with 1-2g/kg mixing ratio AMS into 286-290K SFCs. FCST soundings show STG lift occurring in a 4-7kft deep dendritic growth zone for 6 hours suggesting a period of moderate to locally heavy snowfall. A strong pressure gradient behind the system will produce 20-30mph winds with gusts approaching 40-45 mph.
- Bill
KD0DJG
www.twistertoursusa.com
10:51 PM CST, 01/12/09
Brian Russ
EF0
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2007
- Messages
- 15
It's now looking like an increasing potential for significant lake effect snow
in the Thursday-Friday time frame for the eastern Lake Ontario region.
NWS Buffalo has hoisted Lake snow watches. Apparently recent model runs
are suggesting a Huron/Georgian Bay connection being established.
So much for hoping this blast will be too dry and sheared to keep from being
dumped on. *BARF*HURL* I wished I'd taken this week for a vacation.
I can already imagine a wall of snow forming right over Oswego County.
in the Thursday-Friday time frame for the eastern Lake Ontario region.
NWS Buffalo has hoisted Lake snow watches. Apparently recent model runs
are suggesting a Huron/Georgian Bay connection being established.
So much for hoping this blast will be too dry and sheared to keep from being
dumped on. *BARF*HURL* I wished I'd taken this week for a vacation.
I can already imagine a wall of snow forming right over Oswego County.
Joel Wright
EF5
Major arctic air outbreak is already ongoing. Temps over much of the midwest are below zero and falling. Much of Minnesota and the Dakotas are already -20 or lower right now.
Even as far south as Iowa it's -22 already in Cedar Rapids with 8 more hours to "cool" before daylight. Their record low is -23 I believe so that record looks to get shattered.
Even as far south as Iowa it's -22 already in Cedar Rapids with 8 more hours to "cool" before daylight. Their record low is -23 I believe so that record looks to get shattered.
Jason Foster
SDS....the first 'S' is for snow not storms.
I just wish this arctic air was moving in closer to Inauguration, so that here in DC the crowds would be reduced.
I am so snow deprived here that the cold air is exciting now....otherwise I would have likely just hibernated until the next snow storm.
I know you upper midwest guys laugh when I say our brutal temps will be (high) 19°f on Friday...and that everyone is saying it's the coldest in 15 years. Most of you won't even see highs of what our lows will be (around 3°). But at least you've seen snow.
I just wish this arctic air was moving in closer to Inauguration, so that here in DC the crowds would be reduced.
I am so snow deprived here that the cold air is exciting now....otherwise I would have likely just hibernated until the next snow storm.
I know you upper midwest guys laugh when I say our brutal temps will be (high) 19°f on Friday...and that everyone is saying it's the coldest in 15 years. Most of you won't even see highs of what our lows will be (around 3°). But at least you've seen snow.
Quintin Erdman
All-time record
That darn global warming is at it again...
Cedar Rapids. IA has set a new all time record low of -29.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20090115/NEWS/90115004
Here in Ames (-26) has frozen my pipes and now I cant flush the walk.
Stay warm and make sure to send a thank you note to Al Gore.
That darn global warming is at it again...
Cedar Rapids. IA has set a new all time record low of -29.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20090115/NEWS/90115004
Here in Ames (-26) has frozen my pipes and now I cant flush the walk.
Stay warm and make sure to send a thank you note to Al Gore.
mikegeukes
EF5
Cold in North Dakota and Minnesota
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
737 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009
..RECORD DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BROKEN AT BISMARCK ND
AT 734 AM CST THIS THURSDAY MORNING THE TEMPERATURE AT THE BISMARCK
AIRPORT DROPPED TO -44 DEGREES.
Other cold temps.
-48 in Babbitt, Minnesota (Cooperative Observer)
-43 Garrison, ND
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
737 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009
..RECORD DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BROKEN AT BISMARCK ND
AT 734 AM CST THIS THURSDAY MORNING THE TEMPERATURE AT THE BISMARCK
AIRPORT DROPPED TO -44 DEGREES.
Other cold temps.
-48 in Babbitt, Minnesota (Cooperative Observer)
-43 Garrison, ND
Last edited by a moderator:
David Draun
EF5
Forecasted overnight lows of -25 and lower tonight for much of the area west of Chicago. Aurora, IL will probably drop down near -30. I'm glad an event of this magnitude seems to be a 10-15 year phenomena and likely will only happen once.
Looking forward to the super-hot high of 15 degrees on Saturday! Break out the swimming gear!!
Looking forward to the super-hot high of 15 degrees on Saturday! Break out the swimming gear!!
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