Major arctic surge next week?

[Karla Dorman]

Read on our DFW NOAA Forecast Discussion that a ridge will be setting up late next week over Alaska, with a Rex Block out west ... possibly bringing in "much colder" weather for our part of the country. Maybe even some moisture. Still, too far out to predict, but the possibiliby there.

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

The new 21Jan 12Z GFS is trying to encourage me with a potential precip. event for the southern plains.. see this time sensitive links below:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_132m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_180m.gif


A combination of a strengthening MJO and what seems to be a more active subtropical jet stream.. gives credence to this potential scenario. But, I know all to well how often the GFS overdoes the QPF especially given we are in a drought pattern in this part of the world. My guess is that we are near the end of this particular stretch of dryness.. a potential icing event of moderate magnitude is not out of the question for this time period. Still, I'll bet you that the forecasted QPF will be scaled back at least by half from this particular run by the time this system arrives.

We'll have been over a month without ANY moisture here at the farm, not unheard of this time of year but none the less not a normal occurrence.
For a change, my winter forecast has been dead on for this part of the country, and I still see significantly below normal precip. along with close to normal temperatures for the remainder of the winter season due to the strengthening LaNina..