Let's talk about the TVCN consensus model

[Justin Allen]

Spaghetti plots. We have all seen them around social media and weather forums. So much data to take in, it all becomes a blur. But have you noticed the TVCN consensus model which is usually very close to what the NHC forecast is? How can it be so (relatively) accurate?

Let's dive into where the TVCN model gets it's data from.

1) The average of the last two runs of the members within the TCON plus the ECMWF model is known as the TVCN consensus.

2) The TCON consensus is the GUNA consensus plus the Hurricane WRF model.

3)The GUNA model is a consensus of the interpolated versions of the HMON, UKMET with quality control applied to the cyclone tracker, United States Navy NAVGEM, and GFS models.

So the TVCN involves the ECMWF, HWRF, HMON, UKMET, NAVGEM, and GFS.

 

[Lou Ruh]

Spaghetti plots. We have all seen them around social media and weather forums. So much data to take in, it all becomes a blur. But have you noticed the TVCN consensus model which is usually very close to what the NHC forecast is? How can it be so (relatively) accurate?

Let's dive into where the TVCN model gets it's data from.

1) The average of the last two runs of the members within the TCON plus the ECMWF model is known as the TVCN consensus.

2) The TCON consensus is the GUNA consensus plus the Hurricane WRF model.

3)The GUNA model is a consensus of the interpolated versions of the HMON, UKMET with quality control applied to the cyclone tracker, United States Navy NAVGEM, and GFS models.

So the TVCN involves the ECMWF, HWRF, HMON, UKMET, NAVGEM, and GFS.

Do you have a link for where the TVCN output (plotted on a map, preferably) can be viewed?

 

[Justin Allen]

Do you have a link for where the TVCN output (plotted on a map, preferably) can be viewed?

Hurricane Model Plots

VIEW FULLSCREEN

www.sfwmd.gov

 

[Lou Ruh]

Hurricane Model Plots

VIEW FULLSCREEN

www.sfwmd.gov

Thanks (I guess ... being colorblind, I some times have trouble finding individual members from spaghetti plots, but, as long as they keep to this color scheme, I should be OK)

 

[Justin Allen]

Thanks (I guess ... being colorblind, I some times have trouble finding individual members from spaghetti plots, but, as long as they keep to this color scheme, I should be OK)

Ah yes. Here's one that's labeled:



You can find it here: Link

 

[Lou Ruh]

Ah yes. Here's one that's labeled:

View attachment 19044

You can find it here: Link

Thanks.