Confusion about the GFS Model

[Grady Joslin]

Eh I am a little confused (still new at the forecasting bit). I keep seeing the term GFS model thrown around along with 500mb. I did some searching on google to find more about these to understand it a little better. While I think I got the right idea of how many use it on here to forecast where severe weather break out, I myself feel like I am not sure if I am reading it right. I acutally feel like I am jumping in without learning how to swim first.

Take this for example, 6.5 days from now, I look at http://weather.unisys.com . I see that on the 500mb map under GFSx, that looks like western Indiana is in red. The way I look at it, is that could be a possible day for severe weather or at lest a strong storm.

But I feel like I am missing more then just knowing that a storm is going to hit that area that day.

So my question is... am I trying to read too much into it or I am off in what I am reading? I feel as if I don't understand GFS models that well. I've been looking on Google for more information but I keep running into actual data rather then a definition what I want to figure out. I was wondering if you guys could point me in the right direction or help clear this up a little bit. Thank you for any information you can throw at me. It helps

 

[cedwards]

One excellent book to get is Tim Vasquez's Weather Map Handbook. This describes the popular models and how to read them.

The GFS is just one of the forecast models. and the 500mb level is only one of several to look for when making your forecast. To make a forecast, I look at the surface, 850, 700, 500, and 250 levels mainly.

 

[Oscar van der Velde]

GFS Convective Weather Maps

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/usa.html is automatically updated and displays many relevant variables for storm forecasting.
Cheers!