Legislation to Create a National Disaster Review Board

[Mike Smith]

Back to tornadoes, a report was released by an independent consulting company pertaining to the NWS's tornado warnings.....while the nation was focused on what will most certainly be the worst flash flood in 130+ years.

Here it is along with my comments: The Awful State of the National Weather Service's Storm Warning Program

 

[Randy Jennings]

The two Texas NWS offices most closely involved in forecasting and warning about the flooding on the Guadalupe River — Austin-San Antonio and San Angelo...

, and I'm really unsure if phone notifications go out when they are issued.

Behind on this thread, but what to point out a couple of things.

The article that Sean posted, like several others I have seen in the media, incorrectly report that the 1 death in Tom Green County (San Angelo) was some how related to the Guadalupe River. It wasn't (Mike already noted this). Almost all of the San Angelo (SJT) WFO area is in the Colorado River Basin. The southeast edge of the SJT WFO is Mason and Kimble (Junction) Counties which are still northwest of the Guadalupe River basin. The northern part of the SJT CWA is in the Brazos River basin. A good map of this is USGS | InFRM - Watershed Hydrology Assessment Viewer

The San Angelo flooding was actually "East Ditch" or "East Draw" according to local media. This runs into the North Concho River, that runs into the Concho River, which meets up with the Colorado River at O.H. Ivie Lake.

One of the most surprising facts about this Guadalupe River flooding event is that the Guadalupe River Basin begins in Kerr County. This was not a wall of water that came all the way from San Angelo like some media reports would lead you to believe - it was a lot of rain that fell very quickly in a very small area with a limestone base right under the surface and lots of hills. The northern part of Kerr County is even in the Colorado River basin. When you look at a aerial photo of this area when it is not in a flood you can see that the Guadalupe has almost no water in Kerr County normally and has to be have dams just to make swimming holes for the camps.

On the subject of WEA notifications, they go out for Flash Flood Warnings tagged "considerable” or “catastrophic” (which many of the EWX ones on 7/4 where). Source: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/flash-flood-warnings-now-issued-in-easy-to-read-format

I'm really hoping a disaster review board happens. There has been a lot of finger pointing - first at NWS, then at local officials. I fell like this is missing the point. It does appear that the local government didn't do any where close to what they should have, but when you keep asking "Why, Why, Why" the root cause of this disaster is camp operators choose to house kids in a regulatory floodway and flood plain and other people choose to camp in the flood plain during a Flash Flood Watch. A national disaster review board would likely help get to the bottom of these disasters and hopefully root causes would then get addressed.

 

[Mike Smith]

On the subject of WEA notifications, they go out for Flash Flood Warnings tagged "considerable” or “catastrophic” (which many of the EWX ones on 7/4 where).

Thanks for the note, Randy.

The flash flood warnings I've received via WEA have been much more truncated than what is shown at your link. Do you have screen captures or the exact text (formatted or unformatted) for the Kerr Co. FFW and FFE on the 4th?

After the study of the NWS's mess of a tornado warning program, a NDRB is our only hope of fixing this. Thanks for your support!!

 

[Randy Jennings]

Do you have screen captures or the exact text (formatted or unformatted) for the Kerr Co. FFW and FFE on the 4th?

I don't, but you can get it at PBS - WARN . Hit the >> then the 3 vertical bars with squares on them and adjust the filter. Make sure you set it to expired. Most modern cell phones would display the 360 character text only. Older phones might still use the 90 character text. The instructions would not appear. Here is a screen shot of the first one that went out as a WEA at 1:14 am.

 

[Mike Smith]

first one that went out as a WEA at 1:14 am

Thanks, Randy. This exactly what I was looking for.

Is there a way to tell what time the warning was transmitted over WEA?

 

[Randy Jennings]

Thanks, Randy. This exactly what I was looking for.

Is there a way to tell what time the warning was transmitted over WEA?

Yes. My screen shot did not show it, but the very first field is "Sent" with a date and time.

 

[John Farley]

Thanks, Randy. Some time quite a bit back in this thread there were questions about whether the initial warning at 1:14 included the wording "life threatening". This indicates that it did. I do think that having summer camps and campgrounds near the river in such a flood-prone area is a big part of the problem. A big reason why we need a NDRB. On a related matter, I have been unable to understand why there were still campers earlier this month (but after the TX floods) along the Rio Ruidoso in NM when the flood happened that took 3 lives. There had been flash floods there the previous two days before the deadly one. Why anyone was still there, or why those campgrounds were still even open, is beyond me.