It's That Time Again - Fat Lady Sings!

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

The tropics has appeared to finally shut down for good for 2010. So that famouse 'fat lady singing' thread appears again (sigh)...

LOL ... She's not singing a happy song as 2010 was a rather frustrating year for hurricane chasing anyway - It must be the Blues ;-)

 

[Bart_Comstock]

It's a real shame too that it is over. This year had some incredible storms, they just all chose to be camera shy and stay out at sea. I was glad that I was able to be in Earl but really it wasn't too much to write home about. Those of you who are regretting not going to NC you shouldn't be too hard on your selves. You didn't miss much.

Oh well, good luck next year guys!

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

...Those of you who are regretting not going to NC you shouldn't be too hard on your selves. You didn't miss much...

Earl was not much, and I did not regret not going.

Igor in Bermuda was probably the storm of the year, along with Karl in Mexico. I am glad I went after Igor.

Everything else was for "fish eyes" only ;-(

 

[Jason Foster]

Yeah....my HDS medication for the year was a the little bit of fun in the Outer Banks of N.Carolina during Earl. I should have done Bermuda, especially considering some factors that I really didn't expect, but now see as a "damnit" moment.

Statistically, my thoughts are be ready for a good intercept in 2011. Being that 2009 & 2010 were basically shutouts, than it stands to reason that 2011 has that much better of a chance for a decent storm to strike. My plan by next year is to personally be able to travel outside US shores for intercepts. Sure...2011 can be a three-peat of the situation, but I'm keeping an optimistic view of things.

In some ways, the lack of tropical activity is what is pushing me HARD to return to the plains to chase. I just need that 'storm fix' I guess. Love it too much to stay away.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

The 2010 season wasn't as bountiful as I expected, but I squeezed out two chases-- both direct hits in Mexico-- and I feel good about it overall. Karl was one of my more memorable 'canes-- I really dug that one.

 

[James Reynolds]

Looks to be same situation out here in the Wpac. We're on course to have the quietest season on record if no more storms form, with only 14 named so far.

Super typhoon Megi was definitely the highlight despite the difficulties of moving around northern Luzon. The best chance to intercept was probably typhoon Fanapi but I missed that one since I was dangling above a lava lake in Vanuatu shooting volcano footage at the time.

Wishing everyone the best in 2011 wherever they may chase!

 

[Dann Cianca]

Looks to be same situation out here in the Wpac. We're on course to have the quietest season on record if no more storms form, with only 14 named so far.

Super typhoon Megi was definitely the highlight despite the difficulties of moving around northern Luzon. The best chance to intercept was probably typhoon Fanapi but I missed that one since I was dangling above a lava lake in Vanuatu shooting volcano footage at the time.

Wishing everyone the best in 2011 wherever they may chase!

James, were you ever able to get into the region where Megi's right-front came ashore? I know it is undeveloped and sparsely populated... but I'm curious as to the impact.

 

[James Reynolds]

Sadly not Dann due to my rush to get back to Hong Kong which was forecast a hit from Megi (it ended up making landfall way up the coast in mainland China.) However I heard reports that the area was totally devastated with trees completely denuded of foliage. I would love to have got in there.

Next time hopefully I'll be able to spend more time on the ground.

 

[Jeremy Den Hartog]

Is that a picture of Megan Gould (the best storm chaser in the State of Missouri) in the first post? Sorry, couldn't help myself

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Is that a picture of Megan Gould (the best storm chaser in the State of Missouri) in the first post? Sorry, couldn't help myself

Not sure (Megan Gould) ... I just googled "drag queen singing" and posted it for the "fat lady singing" ceremony I always post after the worst hurricane seasons.

 

[Jason Harris]

Looks like NOAA put a fork in it with this article which sums things up:

Large-scale climate features strongly influenced this year’s hurricane activity, as they often do. This year, record warm Atlantic waters, combined with the favorable winds coming off Africa and weak wind shear aided by La Niña energized developing storms. The 2010 season continues the string of active hurricane seasons that began in 1995.

But short-term weather patterns dictate where storms actually travel and in many cases this season, that was away from the United States. The jet stream’s position contributed to warm and dry conditions in the eastern U.S. and acted as a barrier that kept many storms over open water. Also, because many storms formed in the extreme eastern Atlantic, they re-curved back out to sea without threatening land.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20101129_hurricaneseason.html

Isn't the labeling of quadrants new at NHC? ("Atlantic High Seas" etc.)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

On a personal note, I had thought when I moved to Florida in Fall 2008 that experiencing a hurricane on a yearly basis would be an interesting fringe benefit (as unrealistic and unlikely as that may be), but so
far all I've seen is the flooding of TS Fay.

More here on the record of 5 years and no major storms hitting the US coast:
http://epaper.orlandosentinel.com/OS/OS/2010/11/29/ArticleHtmls/29_11_2010_001_020.shtml

Now, I guess this means statistically that next year should be the one to watch:

For the fifth year in a row, the U.S. coast escaped seeing a major hurricane, with top winds of at least 110 mph. The only other five-year stretches where the nation escaped a major hurricane hit: 1901-1905 and 1910-1914.

The last major hurricane to hit the United States was Wilma, which first struck southwest Florida as a Category 3 system in 2005. Since the mid-1800s, when records were first kept, the United States has never gone six years without a major hurricane hit.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

...On a personal note, I had thought when I moved to Florida in Fall 2008 that experiencing a hurricane on a yearly basis would be an interesting fringe benefit (as unrealistic and unlikely as that may be...

That's about right - Since 2005 ended, that was about it for anything major for Florida.

There is NO telling waht 2011 could bring but what I will look for is that in early spring - Look where the warmer than normal SST's are in the Atlantic. If they are way-the-F out there in the E Atlantic ... Oh well, expect frequent recurverature and missing the US. If they are west and / or the Gulf, then a 2005 'like season may be on tap.

A good side to 2010 was that NEVER once was the oil slick cleanup in the Gulf ruined by a hurricane. God's not stupid.