Is 2025 a 'Quiet' Hurricane Year?

[Randy Zipser]

A Time magazine article on 10/14/2025 takes a look at that question. And, yes, "climate change" is mentioned in this article, but only as one of "many other factors [that] influence whether or not a hurricane forms and how it travels." So, no need to rehash that topic again...

Is 2025 a 'Quiet' Hurricane Year?

 

[JamesCaruso]

Interesting read. Obviously for a mainstream audience and not weather geeks like us, but still think they oversimplified by only mentioning the number of named storms and not a metric such as accumulated cyclone energy (not sure exactly how 2025 would look from hat perspective, but I’m sure someone can comment). They also sort of contradict themselves by saying the storms are still there in number, they’re just not making landfall; but then they list limiting factors such as dry air from the Sahara and pressures in the Gulf that affect storm formation, not their path.

As to limiting factors, there was no mention of water vapor from the volcanic eruption of a year or two ago, which I learned about from posts here by @Boris Konon - is that still a factor?

As to the mention of climate change - don’t worry Randy, I won’t rehash it, at least not from a “media narrative” perspective! I was actually pleased that it avoided implying correlation and conceded there is natural year-to-year variability and always has been! But there’s still that mention of “more intense storms,” and I’m just still not sure that’s actually true, and how that’s defined. Is it number of storms, or ACE, and do those metrics tell the same story, or different stories?

 

[Randy Zipser]

But there’s still that mention of “more intense storms,” and I’m just still not sure that’s actually true, and how that’s defined. Is it number of storms, or ACE, and do those metrics tell the same story, or different stories?

Excellent observation, James. Time magazine's (to which I subscribe) articles generally target a more literate, detailed-informed readership, but may not always go into great depth for backing up statements with numbers or comparing metrics from differing models or sources. However, an "expert" quoted may actually have such data available, but editorial constraints might result in that information not being published.

I'm glad you found the article informative.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Non-scientific guess is that the increasing Saharan dust being lofted over the Atlantic is casing a number of issues with aerosols and instability.

 

[John Farley]

Also noteworthy that the focus of the article is entirely on Atlantic storms. The Pacific certainly seems more active, and far inland in our area, the impacts have been the greatest in nearly 100 years. That said, I have not looked at the Pacific data in depth, but it seems pretty active this year.

 

[Randy Zipser]

Non-scientific guess is that the increasing Saharan dust being lofted over the Atlantic is casing a number of issues with aerosols and instability.

Or...LOL...maybe the President ordered the Attorney General to "go after" Mother Nature if she dared to mess with America by sending a hurricane across our Atlantic or 'Gulf of America' shores!...just kidding, Admins...take it easy!!!

Seriously, though, it would be interesting to see a depiction of smoothed height contours from 850mb to 200mb from June through November, 2025. If a mean long-wave trough position turns out to be located on an axis from Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes and into the Midwest region during most of this period, that would explain the persistent re-curvature of tropical cyclones over the open waters of the North Atlantic this season. Also, that same upper-air pattern would allow cooler, drier continental air at the surface to penetrate unusually far southward, displacing the more-common maritime air mass, and allowing N-NE surface winds over the Florida peninsula (and entire eastern Gulf) for several consecutive days and even weeks. The result is lower sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) earlier in the season than expected, especially along the Gulf coastal states of the Southeast. All very favorable for keeping the Gulf quiet, thankfully! This is the exact scenario that has so far this season played out, at least across Florida. Please, Mother Nature, let it continue...I'll take our drought any day over a major hurricane this time of year!!!

 

[Boris Konon]

A Time magazine article on 10/14/2025 takes a look at that question. And, yes, "climate change" is mentioned in this article, but only as one of "many other factors [that] influence whether or not a hurricane forms and how it travels." So, no need to rehash that topic again...

Is 2025 a 'Quiet' Hurricane Year?

2025 has been a season when all hurricanes has missed the U.S. by a significant margin, and until Melissa, there was not a single named storm in the Caribbean, and almost nothing in the Gulf.

We have seen seasons like this before in the Atlantic, so this is nothing unusual climatologically. I think a better question to ask, do seasons like this become more of less common from warming? Also, why exactly do seasons like this occur and are their natrual cycles that make them more common at times and less common? Can we forecast them at all?

"Quiet" or "active" seasons should be rated on accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)
or power dissipation index (PDI). This removes societal impact factor and all the nuances, subjectivity, and vagaries that come along w/ that. We need to look at things from the total picture, not slice and dice things down getting stuck in the weeds.

 

[Boris Konon]

Interesting read. Obviously for a mainstream audience and not weather geeks like us, but still think they oversimplified by only mentioning the number of named storms and not a metric such as accumulated cyclone energy (not sure exactly how 2025 would look from hat perspective, but I’m sure someone can comment). They also sort of contradict themselves by saying the storms are still there in number, they’re just not making landfall; but then they list limiting factors such as dry air from the Sahara and pressures in the Gulf that affect storm formation, not their path.

As to limiting factors, there was no mention of water vapor from the volcanic eruption of a year or two ago, which I learned about from posts here by @Boris Konon - is that still a factor?

As to the mention of climate change - don’t worry Randy, I won’t rehash it, at least not from a “media narrative” perspective! I was actually pleased that it avoided implying correlation and conceded there is natural year-to-year variability and always has been! But there’s still that mention of “more intense storms,” and I’m just still not sure that’s actually true, and how that’s defined. Is it number of storms, or ACE, and do those metrics tell the same story, or different stories?

Regarding the WV in the stratosphere from the Hunga-Tonga eruption, WV content in the stratosphere is still above normal, and it will take another 3-4 years to return to normal, but I think the most direct impacts have waned. The global temp spike we saw in 2023 and 2024 has reversed and is now closer to the baseline.

The most direct impact I think was the unusually warm temps aloft in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific during the 2024 hurricane season. Also, the ITCZ was shifted considerably N, leading to usually heavy rains in the Sahara, and tropical waves coming off Africa at a higher latitude than normal. This caused a big gap in the season in Aug and Sep. It also likely contributed to the latest first named storm in the eastern Pacific.

2024 was active for ACE, but no where near the record high ACE forecasted for the season.

2025 had an even larger gap in the Atlantic for TCs during the peak climo of the season, but conditions we saw in 2024 were not there as mitigating factors. What was present was an usually dry atmosphere in the tropical MDR and many TUTTs (tropical upper tropospheric troughs) that squashed any TC development. Even those TCs than formed, struggled for days in the MDR until they got into the western Atlantic out of the deep tropics (w/ Erin and Gabrielle this was most apparent).

What happened in 2024 and 2025 was significant and nothing quite like it had happened before at least in the last 50 years, so does present questions as to patterns and feedbacks when it comes to ongoing warming.