Is 2025 a 'Quiet' Hurricane Year?

[Randy Zipser]

A Time magazine article on 10/14/2025 takes a look at that question. And, yes, "climate change" is mentioned in this article, but only as one of "many other factors [that] influence whether or not a hurricane forms and how it travels." So, no need to rehash that topic again...

Is 2025 a 'Quiet' Hurricane Year?

 

[JamesCaruso]

Interesting read. Obviously for a mainstream audience and not weather geeks like us, but still think they oversimplified by only mentioning the number of named storms and not a metric such as accumulated cyclone energy (not sure exactly how 2025 would look from hat perspective, but I’m sure someone can comment). They also sort of contradict themselves by saying the storms are still there in number, they’re just not making landfall; but then they list limiting factors such as dry air from the Sahara and pressures in the Gulf that affect storm formation, not their path.

As to limiting factors, there was no mention of water vapor from the volcanic eruption of a year or two ago, which I learned about from posts here by @Boris Konon - is that still a factor?

As to the mention of climate change - don’t worry Randy, I won’t rehash it, at least not from a “media narrative” perspective! I was actually pleased that it avoided implying correlation and conceded there is natural year-to-year variability and always has been! But there’s still that mention of “more intense storms,” and I’m just still not sure that’s actually true, and how that’s defined. Is it number of storms, or ACE, and do those metrics tell the same story, or different stories?

 

[Randy Zipser]

But there’s still that mention of “more intense storms,” and I’m just still not sure that’s actually true, and how that’s defined. Is it number of storms, or ACE, and do those metrics tell the same story, or different stories?

Excellent observation, James. Time magazine's (to which I subscribe) articles generally target a more literate, detailed-informed readership, but may not always go into great depth for backing up statements with numbers or comparing metrics from differing models or sources. However, an "expert" quoted may actually have such data available, but editorial constraints might result in that information not being published.

I'm glad you found the article informative.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Non-scientific guess is that the increasing Saharan dust being lofted over the Atlantic is casing a number of issues with aerosols and instability.

 

[John Farley]

Also noteworthy that the focus of the article is entirely on Atlantic storms. The Pacific certainly seems more active, and far inland in our area, the impacts have been the greatest in nearly 100 years. That said, I have not looked at the Pacific data in depth, but it seems pretty active this year.

 

[Randy Zipser]

Non-scientific guess is that the increasing Saharan dust being lofted over the Atlantic is casing a number of issues with aerosols and instability.

Or...LOL...maybe the President ordered the Attorney General to "go after" Mother Nature if she dared to mess with America by sending a hurricane across our Atlantic or 'Gulf of America' coastlines!...just kidding, Admins...take it easy!!!

Seriously, though, it would be interesting to see a depiction of smoothed height contours from 850mb to 200mb from June through November, 2025. If a mean long-wave trough position turns out to be located on an axis from Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes and into the Midwest region during most of this period, that would explain the persistent re-curvature of tropical cyclones over the open waters of the North Atlantic this season. Also, that same upper-air pattern would allow cooler, drier continental air at the surface to penetrate unusually far southward, displacing the more-common maritime air mass, and allowing N-NE surface winds over the Florida peninsula (and entire eastern Gulf) for several consecutive days and even weeks. The result is lower sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) earlier in the season than expected, especially along the Gulf coastal states of the Southeast. All very favorable for keeping the Gulf quiet, thankfully! This is the exact scenario that has so far this season played out, at least across Florida. Please, Mother Nature, let it continue...I'll take our drought any day over a major hurricane this time of year!!!