Irene

[David Wolfson]

The current prog reminds me of Hurricane Carol (1954). In that year also mid-Atlantic sea temps were above normal, and several tropical storms maintained damaging intensity right up into New England. If one is chasing hurricanes, I wouldn't want to miss one like that! I remember well as a small child experiencing Carol (and Edna) from our home south of Boston. Other than Donna, which wasn't quite as strong, New England has escaped a major hit since that year, and the damage will be substantial. The Northeast has many big trees with shallow roots, and they fall everywhere .

 

[Charles Kuster]

It is also important to note that southwesterly shear should increase late in the week, with an approaching trough, to 20-30+ kts which could make Irene a lopsided storm to the northeast. The storm already has a slight northeast bias in the wind field and is currently only experiencing weak southwesterly shear (see picture 1). Therefore I expect the storm to be weakening (probably a category 1 as it approaches the northeast) and much weaker on the western side as it moves up the east coast of the U.S. This combined with the fact the center should be offshore (I expect the current forecast track will shift slightly further to the east in the next few days due to the substantial weakness in the ridge combined with frequent troughs moving across the eastern U.S. It would not be surprising at all if Irene does not make landfall anywhere in the U.S.) will hopefully lessen the impacts along the east coast which would be very good. Good luck to anyone chasing!

Picture 1. Wind shear is contoured in yellow.


EDIT1 (8/25/11): Looks like the track has shifted slightly to the west instead of east probably due to, at least in part, a weak upper level low that formed just off the coast of North Carolina yesterday. The storm should still be asymmetrical and weakening due to the southwesterly shear which will help somewhat lessen the affects along the east coast, but it looks more likely now that Irene could make landfall somewhere along the east coast.

 

[B Ozanne]

I'm still hanging onto the GFDL model which looks a lot like Gloria in 1985. If that model verifies it will be a very big deal around here, even if winds are only low end cat 1 at landfall on Long Island. It has been 26 years and our dense forests have been running wild since then.

Edit: The 5pm NHC discussion is starting to talk about a westward trend in the models (after passing NC):

THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE
WEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

 

[MClarkson]

When you take into account the increase in forward speed, there will be a massive difference between the right and left sides in the northeast(if it hits). The shear in the 3-4 day time frame looks pretty good for a northeast storm. Upper level winds mostly out of the south from Cape Hatteras on up to Long Island, which is near the consensus track. If the storm is moving north at 30 knots, and the upper level winds are 45 knots out of the south, thats really not that bad. Its not great, but its not bad. If the whole northeast is flipping out, is it really worth chasing a cat 1 though? The outer banks look a bit more sane with higher winds, unless they get weak-sided.

 

[TrumanBoyer]

Delmarva ??

With latest PROB's showing most likely eyepath going over
NE N Carolina thru SE Virginia,
I am thinking that the Southern Delmarva Peninsula
will be the best place to try to catch NE quadrant tornadoes.

Virginia/NC Tidewater areas are to be avoided,
(they are TRAPS)
and we probably won't even be allowed near
the barrier islands/coastal highways.

I am 50% GO on a Delmarva chase at this time.
Delmarva offers Flat Land, many areas are tree-less,
good road layout,
and if I can find a big empty parking lot somewhere....

It will probably be necessary to make a decision by this evening,
tomorrow morning at the latest.

ANY THOUGHTS OR ADVICE ?

Truman

 

[Warren Faidley]

I'm I the only one who is not impressed with the last 24 hours of IR images?

Now I see dry air in the NE quad of the core (not an eye) with very little expansion of cooler tops.

With increased shear expected, I'm not sold on this getting any stronger.

W.

 

[Jason Foster]

This is a crazy chase...very little means to get in the upper-right quad for best experience. Probably will be a Cat 2 at landfall (hoping that re-entry across the peak gulf stream waters helps). The coastal plain from NC through the Delaware Bay is tough to get around. Isabel was bad with downed treesa and flooding and this storms is likely to be worse since it's tracking up the coast line.

Barrier Islands are already being shut down to all but emergency and media (with full credentials from the police). But this looks like a smarter bet to be inland anyway.

My only question during the even is....when will the Bay Bridge/Tunnel close?

 

[Warren Faidley]

Yea, I have been antagonizing on a go or no go right up until the last 30 minutes when the last reasonable flight was leaving Tucson.

Here are the negative factors for a good chase: The daylight region of best strength vs. chase areas is not all that great, including the outer banks of NC. At the present speed, Irene should begin a decline in strength right after dark on Saturday (if not before) making points north of N-NC and S-VA night time chases.

I'm also concerned about the actual on shore wind fields before dark. The majority of models (ATM) do not have impressive wind fields extending too far inland with tropical storm force or lower Cat-1 winds for most areas. This reminds me of Isabel which was a dud for images since it takes a Cat-3 plus to start making things interesting in that area. Then there are model issues, with some still wanting to keep the core offshore, along with very limited storm surge potential according to the NHC surge forecast. I guess the last factor would be the overall strength of Irene after 24-48 hours. Its been my experience that once a hurricane makes a turn, they often either go through an eyewall replacement cycle or simply spin out. This can happen really fast.

Regardless, Irene has the potential to cause some serious problems with coastal erosion, small tidal surges and inland flooding due to rain as it moves north along the eastern coast. The best place for chases may end up being in the NYC area.

Good luck to everyone chasing and be safe.

W.

 

[B Ozanne]

I will be chasing in place in my hometown of Darien, CT on the western end of Long Island Sound. I will most likely end up taking my family to my parents house which is a 1/4 mile from the sound and about 75 feet above sea level. It was built in 2003 and in the worst case it has a very large and dry basement and a generator.

 

[Dave Kaplow]

Yea, I have been antagonizing on a go or no go right up until the last 30 minutes when the last reasonable flight was leaving Tucson.

Here are the negative factors for a good chase: The daylight region of best strength vs. chase areas is not all that great, including the outer banks of NC. At the present speed, Irene should begin a decline in strength right after dark on Saturday (if not before) making points north of N-NC and S-VA night time chases.

I'm also concerned about the actual on shore wind fields before dark. The majority of models (ATM) do not have impressive wind fields extending too far inland with tropical storm force or lower Cat-1 winds for most areas. This reminds me of Isabel which was a dud for images since it takes a Cat-3 plus to start making things interesting in that area. Then there are model issues, with some still wanting to keep the core offshore, along with very limited storm surge potential according to the NHC surge forecast. I guess the last factor would be the overall strength of Irene after 24-48 hours. Its been my experience that once a hurricane makes a turn, they often either go through an eyewall replacement cycle or simply spin out. This can happen really fast.

Regardless, Irene has the potential to cause some serious problems with coastal erosion, small tidal surges and inland flooding due to rain as it moves north along the eastern coast. The best place for chases may end up being in the NYC area.

Good luck to everyone chasing and be safe.

W.

With the current official track I’d pick Atlantic City over NYC as a target, but this is a situation where even a tiny track deviation will have enormous consequences. Shift things just 30 miles to the east and you basically get a repeat of Gloria, which would be disastrous for CT, but probably much better for NYC, as the current track is directly through the center of Brooklyn. A small shift eastward would get the metro area safely out of the northeast quadrant. What a difference a day makes! Yesterday the trend was all eastward, with the official track just brushing the tip of Long Island and a real possibility of Irene becoming a fish storm if the trend continued, but now it’s suddenly west of here, with the main question being how far inland the center will go, and how that will effect the intensity when it gets to the tri-state area…

Well, I was interrupted while composing this post and have now returned after several hours, and guess what? There is now a possible trend back to the east again, with the latest GFS leading the charge. Boy, the models are really all over the place on this one, the difference between the GFS and NAM at 48 hrs is astounding. This is already nerve wracking, I don’t know if I can take another 3 days of flip-flopping. Hopefully there will be some genuine model agreement soon.

I was here for Gloria in ‘85, and I’ll certainly be out and about for this one - which theoretically could be just as bad if not worse - but I don’t think you can really call it chasing when there’s no long distance driving involved. I doubt I'll be leaving the New Haven area, whatever happens... And anyway when it’s your home city that’s potentially directly under the gun, when you have good friends whose houses would be underwater, you get a bit conflicted about all this. I was never a real ‘cane chaser, it never held the same attraction for me that supercells do… So I guess my feeling is, while I’ll definitely be hoping for a fizzle, I’m also ready to take advantage of a Cat 3 surprise should that happen - that is, if there’s any real advantage to be had in such a situation. Like I said, conflicted. Gotta take the good with the bad, it's all you can do in this situation.

 

[B Ozanne]

If I didn't live here I would not chase on the CT coast. It just seems like a miserable experience. It is so fragmented, with winding roads and dense forests. Although, if anyone is chasing in CT and would like some tips and suggestions please let me know, I would be glad to assist.

 

[JoelHamburger]

It looks like I will be making an extremely local chase from my home in Brooklyn, NY.

Honestly I'm a little frightened of hurricanes, it's not like I can just bail and take the southern option. Mostly concerned with the mess it could turn into. If it does track west and NYC gets the brunt of the NE quadrant you can pretty much count on the subways being shutdown for 2-3 days.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Wow this is worst case scenario this thing just shed an eye wall and is forming another Its bombing out bad. . . going to ride the entire eastern coast! The last thing this country needs at this critical time in our history.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Pressure dropping. NOT GOOD AT ALL. ANYONE ALONG COAST IF YOU CAN GTFO DO IT NOW! Dont leave because of the storm. This is going to be the worst hurricane in our life times

 

[Jordan Hartley]

THIS IS HORRIBLE!

Credit: NASA: Irene may well end up walloping the densely populated Northeast during the highest tides of the month—on Sunday's new moon. If all the variables line up just wrong, this could lead to a catastrophic storm tide.
---------- & ---------
Storm surge versus storm tide. Credit: NOAA.
Meteorologist Jeff Masters, writing at his Wunderblog, warns:
I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10-15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded.
---&-----
The 1938 New England hurricane (back in the days before naming), the only Cat 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s, drove a 15-foot storm surge onto Long Island.

---&---
Credit: NOAA.
Masters estimates a 20 percent chance that Irene will deliver a storm surge higher than 8 feet to New York City. If so, this is what it might look like, in his words:
SLOSH model predicts that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds could drive a 15-20 foot storm surge to Manhattan, Queens, Kings, and up the Hudson River. JFK airport could be swamped, southern Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, and a surge traveling westwards down Long Island Sound might breach the sea walls that protect La Guardia Airport. Many of the power plants that supply the city with electricity might be knocked out, or their docks to supply them with fuel destroyed. The more likely case of a Category 1 hurricane hitting at high tide would still be plenty dangerous, with waters reaching 8 - 12 feet above ground level in Lower Manhattan.

THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR IRENE TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN ABOUT 36 HR...THEN PASS NEAR THE COAST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND IN
ROUGHLY 60 HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY... AND WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED A
NOISE-LEVEL CHANGE.

The Weather Channel is going nuts right now.