Irene

[Mike Moore]

Waiting for 00z

 

[LucasMarcomini]

Land interaction seems to have caused some weakining in the system

Goes 13 in SRO

Images courtesy of CIMSS

 

[Jason Harris]

Some really impressive convection with this intensification to Cat 2:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/ft-l.jpg

 

[Mike Smith]

Rob,

Thanks for pointing that out, but no since they are only on one side of the system.

Mike

 

[Mike Moore]

That high looks pretty strong...

 

[AFales]

I stay in the Wilmington NC area. In the past these models have always shifted eastward with time. Examples being with the forecasts with this storm progressively moving it east ward. My question to you all is, based on the computer models and given scenarios is this thing more likely to push out to sea and graze the outter banks? I would love a landfall around here and if anyone is wanting to chase this storm let me know. I know the area quite well.

 

[MClarkson]

00Z GFS is *slightly* inshore but basically unchanged.

 

[Mike Moore]

Da cone has shifted E as expected...

Chaser convergence in the OBX? Pass.

If it does indeed head up the East coast it would be a mess... dirty Jersey would be a mess. I have a feeling that cone is going to continue to creep East throughout the day.

 

[Justin Wiley]

Looks like a few of you fell hard for the early forecast hype. The Weather Channel is all-in and is hanging on desperately for this thing to make landfall, but with each and every run and updated forecast, the path continues a shift to the east. It's amazing that the "meteorologists" there have neglected to mention this and continue with the hype machine. But then again, money and panic sells.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Yea TWC makes a large portion of their yearly income from hurricane strike viewership. Since it's been a few years since a sig. threat, they seen to really be into "wishcasting" now days. I've had several media interviews today complaining about this very subject.

Having said that, there is still some question concerning when Irene will turn north, and all bets are off until maybe 48 hours out when the models have a better grip on the patterns. The eastern seaboard north of NC is filled with infrastructure, docks, seaside homes, etc., that could still be hammered by even a close brush, especially if Irene runs up north (offshore) along the coast.

W.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Too late! I am already commited and am catching a flight from London in the next few hours.

 

[David Wolfson]

Irene appears to have really wrapped up its eyewall fast in the last few hours. If not already it sure looks like it will be Cat 3 soon. AFA the five day forecast I can't remember the last time a solid Cat 1 was progged smack dab over NYC. Should be an interesting few days...!

 

[Jeff Turner]

Yea TWC makes a large portion of their yearly income from hurricane strike viewership. Since it's been a few years since a sig. threat, they seen to really be into "wishcasting" now days. I've had several media interviews today complaining about this very subject.

Having said that, there is still some question concerning when Irene will turn north, and all bets are off until maybe 48 hours out when the models have a better grip on the patterns. The eastern seaboard north of NC is filled with infrastructure, docks, seaside homes, etc., that could still be hammered by even a close brush, especially if Irene runs up north (offshore) along the coast.

W.

TWC is simply sickening and rediculous sometimes. I was up early this morning and turned it on. They had some vidoe feature about Cantore packing his bags for storm trips. Silly if you ask me. Then there was a short news headlines segment, at least two of the stories had nothing to do with the weather, fed in by MSNBC I think. "Weathertainment" at its best...err....worst.

 

[ChristianTerry]

Im becoming convinced that if the Carolinas get hit it will be a very close brush to the outer banks before continuing off to the north. Even though its still a few days away the models have been pointing further to the east. Now the models over the past year have been notorious when it comes to shifting these systems to the east, but Im thinking that New England and Maine should start being concerned as it could come ashore up there as a category 1 or 2.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I've decided to cancel any intercept of Irene. Unless the models flip flop, the core and best wind fields will remain offshore. There might be some chase opportunities further north along the coast, but the shear environment may quickly weaken Irene to a TS as it moves Northeast.

W.