Invest 99L - Southern GOM

[Stuart Robinson]

The models have been hinting at this for a while - a tropical depresion or even a Tropical Storm to form in the southern GOM, Track north East and affect the North GOM shores in about 120 hours time...

To this end Invest 99L has been called for the mass of Thunder storms that are now over the Southern GOM

 

[cdcollura]

I HOPE...

If so, being fired from my job last week, I'm on it!!

 

[Josh Morgerman]

I HOPE...

If so, being fired from my job last week, I'm on it!!

I'm sorry to hear that! I'll bet a good chase would be the perfect therapy at this point.

I'm not holding my breath Re: this one-- it's surrounded by dry air and the environment is not so hot-- but we still have a couple of weeks left. I keep telling myself that big cyclones like the great Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921 and Wilma 2005 hit the USA very late in October, so it ain't over 'til it's over...

 

[Stuart Robinson]

It looks like toast this morning - too much shear - again !!!!

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Man, the Gulf has been really inhospitable this year-- it's just totally sucked. Nothing has looked good in the Gulf except for Humberto for a brief moment-- and I guess Lorenzo, for an equally brief moment.

 

[cdcollura]

Save $$$ and spend it on a chase in Asia (like Taiwan) or somewhere FAR from the shear and garbage on our side of the world.

Sorry tosay this side of the PLANET continued to be S-H-I (you know the rest)...

Hat's off to Stu Robinson and Roger Hill for at least getting "something" - And it was not HERE.

Above: This is "Season 2007" - Fat lady is singing and stinking ;-)

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

Above: This is "Season 2007" - Fat lady is singing and stinking ;-)

Yes and how many people hyped up the season of 2007 back in March as it is going to be full of hurricanes hitting the coast and major storms laying waste to millions... And what really happened in the Southeast? Oh just a drought...

 

[MatthewCarman]

Man, the Gulf has been really inhospitable this year-- it's just totally sucked. Nothing has looked good in the Gulf except for Humberto for a brief moment-- and I guess Lorenzo, for an equally brief moment.

Dean and Felix was very inpressive and both were Cat 5's. Flossie a Cat 4 almost hit Hawaii. Think mabey Herrenete was a Cat 1 in the eastern Pacific? Then you have Humberto and Lorenzo Cat 1-2 hurricanes and many tropical storms. Plus you have Cyclone Gonu a Cat 4 in the Indian Ocean that if I remember right moved into the middle east and was a deadly hurricane. That is rare for that area. Many typhoons in the western Pacific. While the US had a quit season there was strong hurricanes to be chased. Dean broke many records and Felix was also intense. I consider this a active year. Just be thankfull we did not have another Katrina or Andrew this year.

Sorry for going off topic.

 

[Josh Morgerman]

Dean and Felix was very inpressive and both were Cat 5's. Flossie a Cat 4 almost hit Hawaii. Think mabey Herrenete was a Cat 1 in the eastern Pacific? Then you have Humberto and Lorenzo Cat 1-2 hurricanes and many tropical storms. Plus you have Cyclone Gonu a Cat 4 in the Indian Ocean that if I remember right moved into the middle east and was a deadly hurricane. That is rare for that area. Many typhoons in the western Pacific. While the US had a quit season there was strong hurricanes to be chased. Dean broke many records and Felix was also intense. I consider this a active year. Just be thankfull we did not have another Katrina or Andrew this year.

Sorry for going off topic.

I agree with you, but I think we're talking about two different things. My comment was about conditions in the Gulf of Mexico, which have indeed been very inhospitable for cyclones this year. I was not commenting on the Atlantic season as a whole.

The Atlantic season as a whole has been very exciting, as far as I'm concerned. And I chased Dean down the Yucatan-- one of my best chases.

 

[cdcollura]

Yeah, I know...

I STOOD DOWN on chasing Dean, an aweful and stupid mistake (see picture below)...

But my new job (which I would wind up losing last week anyway, for what it was worth) was too important at the time and I always kept thinking something else would come up - Well, nothing else came up, just 40 knots at 500 MB from the WSW the rest of the season.

In 2004 and 2005, I "jumped" on the first storms as if I never chased a hurricane in my life, but that one became 2, then 3, then 4, even 5 intercepts. But that was 0'4 and '05.

Geting back to this thread's topic ... Invest 99L has LOST its convection and is essentially the tail-end portion of a trough axis.

Upper trophospheric "scizzor hands" did it again ;-(

Above: GOOD (no shear)

Above: NOT good (lots of shear)

 

[Doug_Kiesling]

Dean broke many records and Felix was also intense. I consider this a active year. Just be thankfull we did not have another Katrina or Andrew this year.

Sorry for going off topic.

Yeah, not to go off topic but I consider this just an average year.

But there is still some hope in the wish cast Josh. The CMC which spits out systems like a hen laying eggs shows a system in the GOM in about 100 hours that hits the Texas and Louisiana coast.

Will this happen? Hell no. But it is a wishcast.