Interesting prediction from Accu-wx

[Christopher E. Kincaid]

This link was on DrudgeReport.com

Above-Normal Number of Tornadoes Expected in 2012

State College, Pa. -- 21 February 2012 -- AccuWeather.com reports following a near-record number of tornadoes in 2011, an active severe weather season with above-normal tornadoes is expected in 2012.

More at the link...

http://links.mkt2481.com/servlet/Ma...=MjE4MDU2MzcwNDAS1&j=MjYzNzI0MTAwS0&mt=1&rt=0

 

[rdale]

Much more believable than their hurricane "forecasts"

 

[Kelly Sugden]

Predicting the number of tornadoes per year is asinine. Why you are at, why not predict from those tornadic storms which ones will be LP, Classic, and HP. I also want a prediction of which storms will be all of those types at some point during the individual storm lifetime. Also, I want a prediction on the total number of Zdr cores the WSR-88D network will detect. All this article is worthless sensationalism.

 

[Skip Talbot]

This forecast is disheartening because we got the exact opposite from what they predicted for our winter season:

It's been one of the warmest winters on record here and we've got half the average seasonal snowfall. So expect a below average tornado season. Accuweather's seasonal forecasts are generally worthless.

 

[rdale]

All this article is worthless sensationalism.

They are a business. If their business model was to give usable information, they'd be among the thousands of other weather sources and employing two part-time webmasters and one guy who took Skywarn training. Instead they are the global superpower in the weather world.

I think "worthless" has a place, but not in this article's purpose Look at the number of RT's and therefore advertising clicks they are getting out of it...

 

[Gordon Spencer]

Wow , talk about not even being close . It was 45 degrees here in Buffalo today . Mildest winter in 50 years so far . Close only counts in Horseshoes and hand grenades !!!

 

[V. Gensini]

I love this line: "It is highly unlikely that the exact same areas of the Deep South that were struck by tragic tornado outbreaks in 2011 will be hit as hard again this year. However, there could be some damaging thunderstorms and tornadoes in the Gulf states this season."

...and just why is it highly unlikely? Almost implying that supercells have a sense of probabilistic memory! Doh! Moving on...

 

[rdale]

It's highly unlikely because the return period on that type of event is decades... So odds are still quite against it.

 

[Jake Orosi]

That's it. An outbreak of that magnitude is unlikely in any particular year for any region.

...but statistics are funny and misunderstood things. Rolling a 2 ten times straight doesn't change the fact that on your next roll your chance of rolling a 2 is still one in six; on the other hand, a one in six chance each time you roll doesn't mean you can't roll a 2 ten times in a row. I love weather.

 

[ahaberlie]

I love this line: "It is highly unlikely that the exact same areas of the Deep South that were struck by tragic tornado outbreaks in 2011 will be hit as hard again this year. However, there could be some damaging thunderstorms and tornadoes in the Gulf states this season."

...and just why is it highly unlikely? Almost implying that supercells have a sense of probabilistic memory! Doh! Moving on...

Some place, and more than likely numerous places, in Alabama will be affected by an Outbreak type event.. it has happened every year in this past decade. Will one hit the Alabama campus???

 

[rdale]

Some place, and more than likely numerous places, in Alabama will be affected by an Outbreak type event.. it has happened every year in this past decade.

I'm no AW defender but don't twist their words They said "as hard again" as last year. I have a hard time agreeing with your statement that outbreaks like 2011's killers have occurred every year these past ten.

 

[Mike Johnston]

It's highly unlikely because the return period on that type of event is decades... So odds are still quite against it.

The odds would be against it in ANY year, and have nothing to do with what happened last year. That's very basic and called the gambler's fallacy. Absent some actual long-term forecast ability, it's like trying to predict the outcome of a dice roll - and such a prediction has absolutely nothing to do with the outcome of the previous dice roll.

 

[rdale]

The odds would be against it in ANY year

Which is what I said. Which is why their claim is valid. That's why a 100-year flood is just a flood with a 1% chance of happening in any given year, not one that only happens every 100 years. Different terms = same end result.

 

[V. Gensini]

Right, however, the line in the article says, "It is highly unlikely that the exact same areas of the Deep South that were struck by tragic tornado outbreaks in 2011 will be hit as hard again this year."

My point is that the probability this year is exactly the same as it was last year.

 

[rdale]

Gotcha. But their line is still accurate...