Interesting disturbance E/O Windward Islands

[Jim Leonard]

There a disturbance centered about 9N and 44W. The system has favorable upper air setup with strong divergent flow aloft. There appears to be a twist in the convection near the above location. Historically late September and early October storms that approach the Windward Islands can develop quite rapidly and intense.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Interesting I had to look on the map to see where 9N 44W was as I was convinced you were looking the convective mess East of Nicaragua which if you belive the GFS will form a low, track all the way North into the GOM over the GOM loop - but I was wrong! this look like a new devlopment.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

I am just looking through the 18z GFS (which is just rolling in) currently out to +H132The model blows up convection from about 84 Hours and it looking rather tasty at +H132 - centred around 15N 31WI will stay up until the whole run is out so that I can post a loop - but it looks like the 18z GFs is onto something....http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_132m.gifEdit - Still there on 18z GFSA through +168Hhttp://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_168m.gif

 

[Jim Leonard]

Well, it looks now like the well developed disturbance about 7N and 23W is on its way to become our next significant TC. The global models show good upper air pattern for many days ahead for this system to grow. Usually one would say its too late for anything to make it all the way across the atlantic. During the next week or more there should be decent ridging across especially the western atlantic. This future storm could possibly be a big headache for the Lesser Antilles later next week.