Insane Lake Effect Snow

Joined
Feb 29, 2004
Messages
4,133
Location
Rochester Hills, Michigan, United States of Americ
I know there are a couple lake effect snow chasers here... You might want to head towards the Buffalo area to catch some monster snows. BUF is calling for +5 inches per hour with 3 to +5 foot storm totals over some areas. If that happens, it's likely that you will be witnessing some thundersnow with perhaps record breaking snowfall rates.

VERY INTENSE LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BE REALIZED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF UP
TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING ALREADY ISSUED TO COVER THIS ENTIRE TIME PERIOD FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO AS MUCH AS 5 FEET OR
EVEN MORE ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING.
 
I remember a few years ago during a LES event when snowfall rates were approaching 7 or 8 inches per hour. I would be awesome to see snow fall at that rate. Most I've seen is probably an inch - two per hour, but it didnt last an hour.
 
I just told myself I wasn't going on any more winter weather chase trips.
 
Now that would be quite a sight...always wanted to see snow coming down at that rate as long as I had a nice warm & dry place to bunker down to view it. I would estimate the heaviest snow rate I have observed was 3" per hour in thundersnow in St.Louis back in 1982.
 
Man that would be incredible to witness. I can't even imagine 5" per hour snowfall rates.

CAPE values are expected to exceed 1000j/kg Sunday, so thundersnow sure looks like a good bet.

I think it would be very interesting to set up just south of the band and try to get some pictures looking to the north. I would assume there'd be some pretty interesting looking low-topped thunderheads streaming quickly from west to east. Or at least very convective looking stratocumulus clouds.
 
Well boys, this one looks to be epic indeed. I'm putting together some loose plans to get myself into the heaviest bands that I can find, 90 minutes in either direction and I can be in snowfall that is rarely found anywhere else on the globe. It actually gets a little frightening when you find yourself in 5"/hr. The last time that happened to me, we were crawling along the 90, and snow was literally building up on the car and windshield faster than the wipers and myself could wipe it away, you feel like your getting buried. I'll keep you posted.
 
Bear in mind that typically these very high snowfall rates are comprised of very low liquid-water content snow. I've observed rates as high as 9-10" per hour (the total fell in less than an hour) in Oswego, NY. The show was incredibly "dry", about a 30-1 or 40-1 liquid water content, and easily swept away by a broom.
 
Wow those sounds like some impressive snowfall rates! I've experienced snowfall rates around 4"/h few times and it was amazing, so this would be even better, almost hard to imagine. Although I am not a big fan of winter weather, I'd love to be there this time to experience those snowfalls. You just have to love visibility less than 50-100m because of so intense snowing. It happens often here with strong orographic lifting close to the mountains like it was a week ago, some places got ~50" in 24h period so you can only imagine those snowfall rates!

I hope some of you will be there and will share images and videos with us. Good luck and stay safe!
 
As usual before deciding to go on a trip to document something like this, I weighed the pros and cons - the possible subjects to capture on video, the costs, and the dangers. I'm going to sit this one out.

This could be one of the most dangerous types of storms for a chaser to be out driving around in, possibly worse than a hurricane. Temperatures are going to be in the single digits, possibly dropping below zero at night. That is before wind chill.

With LE bands, hunkering down in a hotel brings with it a high chance of busting, as the LE bands are often narrow. It is hard to tell exactly where they will set up in advance to know where to get a hotel. Repositioning as the event is under way brings with it the danger of getting stranded. With the temperatures as low as they are expected to be, a car and camera equipment could have trouble operating. I-90 between Erie and Buffalo is very desolate, with few exits, gas stations or towns and long distances between exits. That is not a good place to get stuck with subzero temps/wind chills.

I'm sure the thundersnow and precip rates will be quite a sight, but I'm not willing to take the high risks that would be likely with an event like this. I'll wait until next October/November for the more benign thundersnow events.

Anyone chasing this, please take precautions, and bring plenty of winter survival gear.
 
Well, if any part of this storm was going to put out 5 or more inches an hour, its happening right now. If someone with a little more computer skill could save some screen shots it would be nice. Looks like just north of Watertown is really taking it on the chin, those returns are intense, couple that with strong winds and its a virtual blizzard, frequent lightning has been occurring throughout the evening as well.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TYX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

enjoy
 
I just have to go on the record and say that the whole subject of cloud-to-ground lightning with surface temperatures in the single digits and teens and a deep snowpack is pretty amazing. They probably even leave big holes/channels in the snow on the ground.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
The most I've ever witnessed was probably 4-6"/hour here on 1/22/05. It wasn't continuous at that rate, but it was near that rate for a good 2-2.5 hour period that night. From about 4 PM to midnight that night, we got 2'. That's the only LE event I've ever even been in during the seven years I've lived in NW IN.
 
It's been awhile since I've seen such healthy bands of lake effect snow, the extraordinarily cold air is really developing these bands. If anyone is on right now, I reccommend you look at the local radars from WNY. The atmosphere is extracting the thermal energy from the lakes with extreme efficiency. For some reason, seeing the whole hydrologic cycle evolving via active convection in the span of 200 miles is simply amazing.
 
Grand Rapids Michigan (my home town) since Feb 1, has picked
up 21.4 inches of lake-effect snowfall, thru 2/4/07 for the
season has 49.8 inches and now is only 0.5 inches below
normal for the season so far.

Mike
 
Back
Top