I'm Hoping for Thundersnow in NYC Area. Will We Get Some?

[Saul Trabal]

We're supposed to get 8 to 16 inches of snow tomorrow. What are the chances for thundersnow? Anyone here know?

 

[Zach Bailey]

if that comma-head low comes to fruition like the models are forecasting, it's not unlikely...

also, 8-16 is probably a conservative estimate. I would say 12-18 for your area.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Re: I'm Hoping for Thundersnow in NYC Area. Will We Get Some

We're supposed to get 8 to 16 inches of snow tomorrow. What are the chances for thundersnow? Anyone here know?

Do you even have to ask? LOL -- Look at this, I'm jealous:

OVERALL...EXPECT THINGS TO GET RATHER WILD LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THE EVENING. 35 MICROBARS IN THE BEST DENDRITE GROWTH
ZONE. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY EQUATE TO AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS OF
2-4" PER HOUR SNOWS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH
SHEAR IN THE COLUMN TO GET SLANTWISE CONVECTION TO REMAIN ORGANIZED
AND RESULT IN NASTY DISCRETE BANDING. USUALLY WANT UNIDIRECTIONAL
PROFILE FOR THAT SORT OF STUFF. STILL...SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE HEAVY
ENOUGH BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z!

LOOKS LIKE DRY SLOT COMES IN AFTER 06Z AND LIMITS SNOW PRODUCTION.
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...ACCUMS WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER LIGHT.
HOWEVER...I'M SEEING SIGNS OF A TROWAL IN DEFERMATION ZONE OF
BACKSIDE AFTER 06Z...LASTING INTO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD
BE A GOOD SNOW PRODUCER FOR 12Z-18Z SUNDAY. EXPECT REAL BLIZZARD TO
ROAR HERE AS WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST.

Well, at least I'm not the only one that noticed the TROWAL...

 

[B Ozanne]

I think so. All the weather stations in the area are coding PRESFR...pressure falling rapidly. Let's hope it comes after dark so we can see the lightning.

Let's try to keep the rest of the blizzard disc over in the Blizzard 2005 thread.