Ice Storm- OK/MO/AR/TX/KY

[Jeff Piotrowski]

NWS Tulsa has pull the trigger on WSW per discussion.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=OKCAFDTSA+1

The WRF http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_ETA_SFC_ACCUMPRECIP_84HR.gif &

GFS http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_GFS_SFC_ACCUMPRECIP_84HR.gif

and the GEM model all from 12Z runs today.

http://grib2.com/gem/CONUS_GEM_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_120HR.gif


All three models are in good agreement with a wide spread freezing rain event over a three day time frame with ice accumulations .50- with totals could reach 2.00" is possible in the area.

I hope this not as bad Dec 07 ice storm received 2.5" of ice with that event.

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

I was just about to post about this.. things are shaping up to be a big event. Its just wether or not the front slows down or speeds up for which area will receive the greatest amount... My current area is Tahlequah, OK I can keep everyone posted with the conditions over here. NWS is 100% FZ RN in my area... for monday night.

 

[Jason A.C. Brock]

I will likely be on the southern end of the event but ya never know if it might fall north or south of where they think. Last time we only got 1/4 inch ice in the 07 mess but nobody around here can drive in 1/16th ice so. I think our last bad ice storm was back when I was in high school for Wichita Falls? Maybe longer..

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I am keeping an eye on it up here in Tulsa. It will be interesting to see where the 850/700mb front sets up. The cold air intrusions from Canada are usually a little bit colder than what the models forecast, but its not always a given. Another interesting thing to keep an eye on is any convective precipitation that may develop along the front as this leads to greater accumulations of sleet and ice.

 

[Brian Emfinger]

I am torn between looking forward to something weather wise going on and not having electricity. At my elevation (1650) we tend to get hit pretty good. We have already had I think 6 or 7 icing/snow events already but they have all been with less than .20 of ice and .50 of snow/sleet. I will likely be out in it covering it for my work and will try to have the streaming vid up while out if it does get bad.

 

[Justin Teague]

I've been on vacation all week (Caribbean cruise), so I had no idea that an ice storm was expected in my area until this morning when we arrived in port. With that said, I usually like to watch the evolution of the system/model solutions for at least 3 days before putting my name on a winter weather forecast.

As Greg mentioned, the models have a tendency to over-forecast temps in shallow cold airmass situations, especially when there is a significant degree of warm air advection above the surface. I am focusing on North East Oklahoma, since that is where I live. This is a classic ice storm pattern for this area, and I would expect that everything will happen 3-6 hours ahead of schedule, as is usually the case (see previous discussion on model vs shallow cold airmass). With the models generally agreeing on QPF in the neighborhood of 1.00in for much of NE Oklahoma, the focus shifts towards convective precip and where it will be located. Like Greg, I will be watching for frontogenesis at H85 and H7, which should provide the focus for isentropic forcing. Now, the BIG question: Where will the cut-off between freezing rain and sleet occur? At this point, that is anybody's guess. Hopefully 0z data will shed some light on the situation.

 

[Dal Archer]

Things are shaping up for a potentially big event, but moisture could be an issue. Despite what models are showing, we seem to be stuck in an extremely dry weather pattern here in NE OK this winter.

However, it doesn't take much moisture for ice to make a huge mess..........

 

[Brett Roberts]

Like Greg and Justin, I'm already anticipating a trend towards the cold air being deeper/farther southeast than currently indicated, just based on how these types of events have evolved over the past few years. I'd be especially concerned (or excited) if I was anywhere near an Ardmore-Ft. Smith line. Although the I-44 corridor is being highlighted right now, that was also the case leading up to the January 2007 event, which ended up being almost all sleet until you got into S and E OK.

I'm actually hoping for ZR over PL since it's more exciting (granted, I was only out of power for 18 hours in Dec 2007, unlike others I knew who were shivering for a week), but I'd honestly be surprised if this turns out to be a major ice storm for the areas that look most threatened from 2-4 days out.

That said, I'm elated at the prospect of receiving significant QPF in any form over the Southern Plains, since drought conditions are never a good sign for the impending chase season.

 

[Robert Rohloff]

ICE STORM NE OK NW ARK

The NWS Tulsa has issued a Winter Storm Watch for NE Oklahoma and NW Arkansas from Monday thru Thursday. It appear we are looking at another major ice storm, some areas could be near .75" or higher. Might be some thunder sleet and freezing rain on Monday. I was out of power for 9 days in the December 07 ice storm we had. We have been quite cold in the Tulsa area the last few weeks and trees and lines are ready to freeze up the rain.

I hate ice storms........................give me 24" of snow

Page 4 of NWS Tulsa Tornado Tribune talks about the new ice storm rating.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/tribune/winter0809.pdf

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/briefing/player.html

 

[David Reimer]

The 0Z NAM, out to 63 hours, had trended colder with the event bringing the freezing line (with a 2 to 3F error for wetbulbs) to roughly the northern part of DFW westward to Breckenridge north. I'm not bringing into account however the fact the NAM has overestimated our temperatures normally by 3 to 7 degrees with the freezing rain events last mouth. While not a definite thing, the trend has been to bring the freezing temperatures further south. I think FWD is going to have to start discussing the possibility of at least an advisory level freezing rain event for the northern 1 to 2 rows of counties in the CWA.

EDIT: With the NAM out completely now it shows an ominous picture for N. TX and Western Texas. It shows temps 26 to 28 in DFW itself with around 1 Inch of Precip. We are below freezing from Tuesday Evening all night into Wednesday with a large area of precip breaking out over west Texas and spreading into N. TX eastward to AR. Lets see what the evening AFD's say about it.

EDIT2: The evening FWD AFD now mentions a significant increase in the chance of a freezing rain/snow event in the N. Tx Area. Can we please have TX added to the title?

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Agreed. Will Add TX To the thread.

Treading through models now.. With models still flip flopping some I am interested to see the entire 00z Suite..

 

[David Reimer]

Agreed. Will Add TX To the thread.

Treading through models now.. With models still flip flopping some I am interested to see the entire 00z Suite..

Looks like the 0Z GFS, while not as cold as the NAM, has trended colder to the point parts of DFW are below freezing.

 

[Angie Norris]

I'm reserving my opinion, er, forecast until after the 12Z runs in the morning. The WRF currently shows the bulk of the precip to the southeast and east of OUN while GFS paints gloom, doom and Armageddon for the body of OK and most of AR. I really hate basing any forecast on GFS since it seems to me that it is almost always too aggressive on precip.
I'm hoping that WRF is closer since I really don't want a repeat of last Dec, but time (and the next run or two) will tell

 

[Corey Sloan]

Have not had the chance to look at any new model data....will look at it tomorrow....so basing this on the older runs....I agree a significant potential exists for FRZRA from KINX through KSGF and on into the MO bootheel....QPF forecast for KSGF was 0.25" with general amounts of 0.15 to 0.25 througout southern MO / northern AR.....not sure this will verify (maybe me wishing it doesn't more than anything) but models are putting out a fairly wet system.....H7 temps near 0C along and just south of the MO/AR border with H85 temps in the -5 to -10C range in the same area....potential is there for a fairly significant event....but need to see some more model runs before I bite the bullet and go for a significant ice storm on this one as we are still 48 hours from the event.

EDIT: Monday night through Tuesday period...left it out above!

 

[Brian Emfinger]

Well I just got woke up with heavy sleet (25 degs) just now (4:50am)... which is/was quite unexpected for this early.